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GlaxoSmithKline plc Message Board

scistats 219 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2009
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  • Reply to

    The AbbVie-Stemcentrx deal bodes well for MACK

    by scistats Apr 30, 2016 10:10 PM
    scistats scistats 16 hours ago Flag

    It is a stretch at 30PPS maybe, but Merrimack has an approved drug that can likely achieve the same thing as Rova-T.

    In Stemcentrx's data, I see 31% of small cell lung cancer patients had the best case of disease stabilization using Rova-T but no shrinkage mentioned in what I read.

    Small cell lung cancer is certainly an under-served cancer, but because of this, we need to see a full phase 3 study to really know what is going on here because there is considerable variation among patients as it is.

    I do not think AbbVie can patent DLL3 as a target itself, so Merrimack can simply target Onivyde to delta-like 3 (DLL3) using its own antibody. Right? Just like many companies are going after HER3.

    Then, it will be Onivyde vs. antobody-linker-tesirine

    "Rova-T is an antibody drug conjugate (ADC) consisting of three components:
    1. an antibody, 2. a linker and 3. the active chemotherapy"

    "Rovalpituzumab tesirine consists of a monoclonal antibody against DLL3 linked to the cytotoxic agent tesirine, a DNA-damaging pyrrolobenzodiazepine dimer toxin."

    “Of the 48 tumour samples we were able to analyse, 33 were positive for DLL3. Among the 29 DLL3+ patients we could treat at the maximum tolerated dose of Rova-T, ten (34%) had a partial response and nine (31%) had disease stabilisation. The duration of response among these patients was more than 178 days, with no cases of disease progression,” Dr Pietanza will say.

    Rova-T is an antibody drug conjugate (ADC) consisting of three components – an antibody, a linker and the active chemotherapy, or cytotoxic payload. The antibody portion of an ADC can recognise cell surface receptors specific to and that are over-expressed in cancer cells, allowing the delivery of the chemotherapy directly to the tumour. This means the treatment is more effective, and also minimises its exposure to normal cells, with a consequent reduction in toxicity."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Stemcentrx was a smaller parallel of MACK and AbbVie was willing to pay for it.

    MACK has a Mkt cap of 863.19M.
    One could see a buyout at 20 PPS to 30 PPS if the Onivyde ramp continues to be robust and that value of MM-141 is understood.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats by scistats Apr 30, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Diethylstilbestrol inhibits telomerase activity and gene expression of prostate cancer cells.
    Prostate. 2010 Sep 1;70(12):1307-12

    Combining imetelstat + diethylstilbestrol [or its pro-drug Honvan] might act in synergy for cancers.

    You have to wonder if Janssen is gong through the conventional list of telomerase inhibitors and telomerase vaccines to combine with imetelstat in their pre-clinical labs?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SNY...huh

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 11:08 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 10:30 PM Flag

    I said I am against the laws proposed by the candidates to mandate drug prices, and I am pro-market with the caveat that the market can, for some time, side with Madoff, Enron, ZYTIGA®, and Xtandi until it no longer does. I like the fact that you can run but not hide from the market. Heil innovation and true blockbusters that make biotech great and enhance and prolong life.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SNY...huh

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 11:08 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    I am pro capitalism for biotech and pharma and anti-Hillary, Bernie, and Trump when it comes to thoughtless, across-the-board drug pricing mandates and caps. These kill incentive and the industry as whole. We know this.

    But, I am also against billion dollar frauds like Madoff and Enron and promoting billion dollar drugs that are no better than generics. Only give credit where credit is due. Ibrutinib is one such drug. Now that is a molecule that earned its keep.

    Every time the public is fed lies about a drug, it only harms the industry.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    Looking forward to the MM-161 and MM-436 unveil.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 Sales estimates

    by biofellowtraveler Apr 29, 2016 10:14 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    We need EU approval and milestones to beat out R&D cash burn. Without this, Merrimack is a flaming tiramisu. A Roche/Genentech buyout makes sense. Mulroy keeping no strings attached with multiple Sanofi dilution collaborations make this a real possibility. With MACK, the whole enchilada is available.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 Sales estimates

    by biofellowtraveler Apr 29, 2016 10:14 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    Thanks for the sales information.
    Any news about Baxalta's progress obtaining EU Onivyde approval and the expected milestone payment?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SNY...huh

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 11:08 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 29, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    For the longest time, JNJ has the following on their webpage:

    "For the abiraterone phase 3, the median overall survival for was 35.3 months for the group of men who received ZYTIGA® (abiraterone) plus prednisone, compared to 30.1 months for the group of men who received placebo plus prednisone. This difference, however, did not meet statistical significance."

    Well, I guess they finally got the data they wanted because this has been removed I believe. Xtandi is the same. Both are expensive false bills of goods in my opinion.

    "New" does not mean better. I used to think like Inns and reject conventional approaches for "cutting edge". I too believed old always meant, as he says, "stale" until I saw the results. Biology does not know old and new, and believe me estramustine works.

    Zytiga and Xtandi are expensive and would never be put head-to-head with estramustine because estramustine is cheap, generic, and would probably perform better.

    Estramustine side effects you are probably thinking, ha!

    Zytiga and Xtandi are no better when you consider what else you have to take. What Zytiga and Xtandi do most effectively is drain your bank account and run up our healthcare cost. If they were truly better, I would go along with, but they are not. PSA flare means its working my foot.

    Again, a few years ago, I would have agreed with Inns 100%. Not any more.

    For this and other reasons, I am not a Sanofi fan beyond their vaccine program. For oncology, Merrimack needs to partner with the likes of Roche/Genentech. I hope they do. Or get bought by them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    I do not know what to make of this exactly.

    The European Medicines Agency (EMA) website refers to the sponsor here as Baxter, but the Sponsor’s contact details are Baxalta Innovations GmbH.

    EMA does state that: "The sponsorship was transferred to Baxter Innovations GmbH, Austria, in December 2014."

    So, sponsorship has not changed from Baxter to Baxalta even thought they have "ONIVYDE (MM-398)– Gastric - phase 3" on Baxalta (Shire) website?

    Maybe they are holding Onivyde in Europe hostage for a hostile takeover of MACK?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SNY...huh

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 11:08 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    Xtandi and Zytiga are garbage.
    Estramustine and diethylstilbestrol work better and are essentially free.
    Sanofi would be a horrible partner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sellers appear to be dryin up...

    by italian30_2000 Apr 28, 2016 10:15 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    Onivyde is a nanoliposome abmassador currently touring Europe.
    Attach antibodies for targeting and package with whatever you like.
    By the way, MACK manufactures too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Scistats

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Stemcentrx does not "do stem cells" they target cancer stem cells.
    Yes, Merrimack's targets includes cancer stem cells.
    Someone needs to inform Novartis that HER3 is a stale target.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 3.4.4. - irinotecan - Orphan - EMEA/H/C/004125
    Baxter Innovations GmbH;
    treatment of pancreatic cancer
    Scope: Letter from the applicant dated 15
    April 2016 requesting extension of clock stop to
    respond to the Day 180 list of outstanding issues adopted on 25.02.2016
    Action: For adoption by written procedure
    List of Outstanding Issues adopted on 25.02.2016. List of Questions adopted on 24.09.2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow, Stemcentrx was indeed a little MACK

    by scistats Apr 28, 2016 9:29 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 9:31 AM Flag

    1. ditto
    2. ditto
    3. ditto

    it was "little MACK"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Wow, Stemcentrx was a little MACK.

    Directly from Stemcentrx's webiste:
    1. "we engineer and manufacture antibodies and antibody drug conjugates for those targets."
    2. "Stemcentrx combines state-of-the-art research and GMP manufacturing capabilities. "
    3. "We are also developing companion diagnostic tests that can be used to identify patients most likely to benefit from those drugs."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Scistats

    by innsbrooklad Apr 28, 2016 8:42 AM
    scistats scistats Apr 28, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    Inns, do you know what the technology is that Stemcentrx is using?

    First of all, lower the price tag. AbbVie said it would pay about $2 billion in cash and fund the remaining with stock with a lot of "maybe's". Obviously Stemcentrx was willing to give its "blockbuster" technology.

    Lets see what Stemcentrx has:

    1. Rova-T: Rova-T is an antibody drug conjugate that is made to target DLL3, enter the tumor cells and release a potent drug to kill these cells.

    2. SC-002 is another antibody drug conjugate in development for small cell lung cancer.

    3. SC-003 is an antibody drug conjugate in development for ovarian cancer.

    Hmmm, sounds like the same stale technology. And yes, I am familiar with CRISPR, but we live in the here and now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats scistats Apr 27, 2016 10:41 PM Flag

    I don't know what decisions you had rather the CEO have made? A small biotech cannot go in every direction at once. MM-121 partnership offers may have been too low to mess with after Sanofi.

    Antibodies, targeted chemo, manufacturing, and diagnostics is a full plate for little MACK. If you add on checkpoint inhibitors, vaccines, and listeria, it is impossible. Everybody has a niche and role to play. We just have to see that each of the MACK business segments makes money. Targeted chemo (MM-398/Onivyde) is on track and will always have a niche. MM-141 and others look good, but we could obviously use a checkpoint inhibitor or vaccine partner.

    I am not sure what you mean by Onivyde did not getting approval, MM-398/Onivyde is approved?

    Oncology therapy today is more fragmented than ever. Merrimack is setting itself up as an antibody company, including manufacturing of antibody conjugated to liposomes. These antibodies will not stand alone only with chemo. They will be tied to immuno therapy at some point. But, putting them out one by one will not be profitable. I see MACK selling out as a plug and play antibody resource that will dovetail nicely with some big pharma's immuno program. I think there is an end game here.

    I am in at 9 PPS now, but had opportunity like everyone else to get out with profit but chose to let EU approval and other developments play out. We shall see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats scistats Apr 27, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    Oh, and generally agree with your PPS target following earnings, with big emphasis on "what we hear".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • scistats scistats Apr 27, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    Italian, if you do not mind sharing, how did you vote on the proxy?
    1. I agree it may be a natural time for leader change and see CFO mentoring for CEO. He is older than Zuckerberg who, the last time I heard, is doing pretty good.
    2. Approve on advisory basis executive compensation, voting no would really mean what? They reconsider?
    3. PWC is ok.
    Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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