First time I have agreed with the "Haz". This is a good one. Let me guess.....new self managed account....At least you didn't bid up.....
I thought Jacobson told you to buy when it was at $1.15. If you had you would have made a nice profit at $2:) I've also noticed you reference a lot from your past "experience". If you have seen a lot of your stocks "play out" badly you might want to stick to mutual funds. I can send you a list if you would like.
I did some research on miller buckfire. In past scenarios they have been used to negotiate convenants and forbearance until the two sides can come to an agreement. my guess would be that the two sides could not come to an agreement on their own, and that all the scenarios are now being played out.
Well, after crunching the numbers. This change in EBITDA had quite the impact.
1. Had the original number been correct, they were poised for positive cash flow.
2. The positive cash flow would have given them leverage to refinance their debt.
3. Improving their debt would have increased the value of the stock and positioned them for growth.
* With the new estimate they will need concessions not only to alleviate Time Warner Cable's fears but to have any chance at growth.
* You are correct that bankruptcy, based on historical results, would be a poor choice for all concerned. Creditors average getting 67% on money owed without interest, and the majority of companies show short term improvement, due to lower debt loads when they come out of Bankruptcy, but due to the stigma, have trouble keeping employees and getting further financing, and end having furhter financing issues.
* Other reasons to avoid
1. The stock held by the officers would be worthless. The newest member of the team received his stock June 5 when all known. That would be really odd if the plan was BK.
2. If I understand it correctly, all major decisions would have to be approved by a banking entiy. Romanello signed on to be king not to answer to some flunky.
3. Romanello says he is confident!
*All that being said I believe you are correct, that the restructuring or refinancing of debt is being done in good spirit. Hopefully there is a way for all of them to win.
Take a look at Miller Buckfire. The majority of their clients file chapter 11 and then exit after the debt and shareholders are wiped clean. They specialize in getting the buy in from the creditors. Based on their numbers I have to believe they are headed in this direction.
The new management team is aces. They were not involved and I feel they have done a great job. The CEO hasn't been with the company a year and look at the hand he was dealt. The financing is the key.
Never understood people like you on the internet. No money invested, and you act more self righteous and upset than we are? Don't try to sell me the, "I'm trying to save you from my mistakes" #$%$ either. Jacobson's correct in that u should go away, but you won't because the inernet is the only place people that name themselves "hazard" can pretend to be something more than they are.
Pete, i felt hittng the estimates was very important to the restructuring of debt. You seem to be more fluent with the financing side. I know some of the downsides, but what are the cons to restructuring under chapter 11, and why woudn't they take that route? Can they restructure without it at these levels?
The moody's announcement meant very little, but the financing has come to a head. The meeting, according to the filing had to be done by the 14th. For the parties to meet I would think the filings would need to be complete, and for that matter filed. Can't imagine a deal worked out without everyone having a full picture of the business. They will have to show a capital structure that is sound(able to repay & allow the company to compete and grow) moving forward. UNITEK will have to sell the plan, which could always go sour. I am betting it won't, but I think the share price movement has merit.
Agreed. Weird in the fact that the pony could have been more patient and gotten in lower. Until good news is announced, if there is any, it will be a buyers market.