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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

scoot157 8 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 40 minutes ago Member since: May 9, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Powder river basin cost increases, and rail issues

    by bellard 2 hours 19 minutes ago
    scoot157 scoot157 1 hour 40 minutes ago Flag

    The PRB cost increase was mainly due to lower output caused by continued rail service interruption. You will find that their cost is projected to go back down on a go-forward basis.

  • scoot157 scoot157 Apr 16, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    I think it will close above 5 tomorrow. There are more open $5 puts than calls expiring this weekend. Thrust will be to make the puts expire worthless. There are also a lot of calls expiring - which tells me the target close for tomorrow will be just a couple of cents above $5.

  • scoot157 by scoot157 Apr 11, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Made landfall at Cairns, about 300 km from coal ports. The cyclone will likely provide no damage to major coal ports although loadings will probably be affected until the storm passes.

  • scoot157 by scoot157 Apr 7, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    JRCC just declared BK and obtained $110 Million in debtor in possession financing. Ive doubted that they would be able to hold on through the trough. Equity investors in JRCC will likely lose everything but the company will restructure and come out debt free.

  • Reply to

    ANR to out climb ACI soon.

    by benstevens75 Mar 27, 2014 10:01 AM
    scoot157 scoot157 Mar 27, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    Ben, I really don't think Otter Creek is as important to ACI as you are inferring here. Looking back to their purchase of it in 2009, I note that they paid a total of $70.1 million to lease the entire area, which was paid out in equal installments over 5 years. This amounts to 10 cents per ton of coal. Apart from the sodium content, I don't believe this mine will be developed any time soon as there is extreme environmental opposition to its development.

    Net/net, nobody is holding up Otter Creek as significant to ACI - including ACI themselves if you could ask them. I look at it as a long term potential resource only. No telling what ten years will bring.

    FYI, I appreciate your posts and view toward an ACI/ANR arbitrage. I am currently invested in both so am looking for macro improvement in the coal picture to lift all boats. I don't believe it is a matter of one vs the other.

  • scoot157 scoot157 Mar 26, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    This is the second false statement gbor has made today concerning coal in general and ANR specifically.

    His false posts are easily refuted merely by looking it up on ANR's financial statements.

    Since it is obvious to me that you have nothing to offer and are here to disrupt the board with disinformation, on "ignore" you go...

  • scoot157 scoot157 Mar 26, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    That headline was from one and a half years ago. Things have clearly changed since then. BHP has not announced any increase in production slated for this year. To be sure, I expect they may decrease production this year due to poor margins.

    Nice try though.

  • I found this interesting news bit on first enercast concerning upcoming coal generation retirements.

    "American Electric Power (AEP) during the recent cold weather was running about 89pc of the coal generation it has scheduled to retire in 2015, leading the company today to question the reliability impacts of federal environmental rules. Across its system, Columbus, Ohio-based AEP has 5,573MW of coal generation due for retirement in 2015 because of the Environmental Protection Agency's mercury and air toxics standard. About 71% of the company's total generating capacity of 37,600MW is coal-fired or about 26,700MW. Three years ago coal formed 82% of its generation mix. “What it should make everyone think about is, what are we going to when that generation is not available?” AEP told Argus today. “We need to be thinking about reliability and resilience in extreme times, not just the status quo.” During the cold weather, disruptions in natural gas supplies led to a sharp ramp-up of coal generation in the PJM Interconnection's 13-state mid-Atlantic and northeastern territory. PJM confirmed that all of its coal capacity was called upon during the cold weather, which is expected to continue."

    Many thanks to KingCoal for posting this. I was wondering how long until someone finally raised the flag to point out the insanity going on with the power producers and upcoming plant retirements.

ACI
4.54-0.01(-0.22%)11:12 AMEDT

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