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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

scooter_in_fl 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2016 12:42 PM Member since: Mar 24, 2005
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  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    They changed what they said they were going to do. What part of that is not clear? They SAID they were going to take a huge loan and buy back $450 million in stock. Then changed to "we will buy stock from the sale of waffers" is there any part of this you do not agree with? If you accept this then you have to accept that they will buy back stock based on the revenue generated from these sales.... So based on these sales they will buy back stock. BUT NO WHERE IN THIS STATEMENT DO THEY SAY IT IS THE SAME AMOUNT talk about thick. You can snort all the pixy dust you like and hope for unicorns to same the day but they the margins are not great on these wafers which is why they are phasing them out. It is not the same as saying Hey we are going to take out most profitable product and use the profits from this to fund a stock repurchase. What part of this is unclear.

  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    The issue I have is not that they are continuing to produce at a slower rate in order to reduce inventory. This has a cost but remains marginally profitable. My problem stems from the change in direction that reflects considerable lack of confidence in the value of the company going forward. Also they committed to buying back shares but not at the level previously announced. I get why they did this. It allows them to stop the stock buy back once the marginal profitability of the continued wafer manufacturing and sales hits zero. once it is no longer profitable to make and sell the wafers they will stop... This is good Business. Also without the commitment to the loan they are not on the hook if business turns sough in a big hurry and they are stuck with millions of shares they over paid for and a loan to boot. All well and good I get the logic of that. My point is and has been that they have changed direction in what they have been saying and they did it very quickly. One day they were going to take out a huge loan for a stock buy back and the next they were not. They reconfirmed they would still buy back shares but not how many and for how long. THEY DID NOT RECONFIRM THE DIVIDEND in the new statements they made in the CC. So in a world where markets are not expanding as fast as planned and the projected revenue is down and profits are expected to fall along with share price and cash flow, it is reasonable to expect the dividend to be either cut or suspended and that will have a significant impact on share price once it is announced. I suspect they will hold off until the end of the quarter but I cannot see any reason to believe it is not going to happen. It is a matter of cash flow and without it they cannot pay the dividend and they are not taking out a loan to do it. Please tell me where I am wrong. Do not just click thumbs down because you do not like hearing the truth.

  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    I have sat in on a lot of CCs What they do not say is just as important as what they do say. Go back and listen to the one they did at the tech conference and then read the most recent one. BIG differences. I will say it again, why would you pass up on a loan at 6% to make 40% within the year unless you knew you could either not make the payments or because even at the lowered expected price target you knew the stock price was not going to recover... Use logic give me hope. I am just telling you guys what I am seeing. PLEASE prove me wrong, show me where my logic is flawed.

  • You got to wonder how bad it really is that at this price we cannot even generate enough interest to be a take over target? How great is our technology compared to the debt this company really has on the books? And what is management doing about it? listen real hard and you might hear a mouse fart in church before management takes substantial action to stop the blood letting... How many weeks are really left in this company before they close the doors?

  • This stock drops 5% daily now. If it were going to go back up to any where near where it had been over the last year 6% on a loan would be nothing in comparison to the money you could make selling the common stock back on the open market in a year if it were actually going back to $11.xx we would be talking a 40% gain from yesterdays close so tell me again how they have even clue one about saving this company.... Or how bright the future is for this company?

  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    Also I want to use your quote "as a part of our commitment to returning capital to shareholders through our dividend and stock buyback, we've taken drastic steps to turn our inventory into cash" You know what this says to me? DRASTIC STEPS to RAISE CASH. running at 40% GROSS margins is not a happy place to be. It sounds like a fire sale to desperately try to slow the fall of the stock price because they could not get a decent loan. In this environment, your thinking they are not going to cut the dividend? Really? They are running a plant at 50% capacity at best because the market for the product is drying up. COGS is making it almost unprofitable .009 cents per share I think was the number, to turn the cash flow into stock repurchase... Sounds like an exit strategy for insiders more than a stabilizing force to help the common share holder and investment community....

  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    Sure, great. But they did not say it was going to be to the tune of $450 million nor did they say they were not going to cut the dividend. Hey you can click thumbs down if you like but the truth is the truth. I am not short. I am holding long but it stinks. 3 weeks ago at the tech conference they were talking about growing revenue and the huge stock buy back. Then yesterday they say 3 weeks ago they decided to change direction. Really? Right after the announcement and re-commitment of the huge stock repurchase and debt reduction? If you want to toss around quotes from the CC please find one that says they are standing behind the amount of the stock repurchase and not going to cut the div. I would love to see it as I am thinking the timing of this screams lawsuit for intentionally putting out false information to investors when they knew full well they were going to change direction. Am I upset? Hell yes I am upset. I figured I could wait a few months to get my money back not a few years, with the hope they would not go bankrupt while I am waiting. They talk about all these "worlds best" technology &*#% and then do not deliver on the numbers? The story just does not match up.

  • Reply to

    end of day flush?

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 2:13 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    Downgrades have been issued. Also I read the transcript of the CC and when asked about the stock buy back they did NOT confirm the original $450 million dollar amount and they did NOT reconfirm the commitment to the dividend. This is very concerning. Now the price target is off from $13.xx down to $11.xx almost a 20% haircut in the expected price target tells me we got more pain to come in this one people.

  • Reply to

    Still staying Short?

    by phillipsstueber1 Jan 29, 2016 7:55 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 29, 2016 8:39 AM Flag

    I hate to admit when I have made a mistake but the truth is guidance out of the company has changed. they stock buy back ( they were supposed to take loan for) has been converted to selling off wafers to fund the buy back. Bottom line not as big a buy back. Forward guidance for the rest of the year is down. Very disappointing that they would announce and reconfirm the stock buy back and then turn right around and do something different. I realize the market is hurting right now in the semi conductor business and I expect to hold on to a company that is honestly trying but false information or a lack of clear guidance and misdirection just leave me feeling betrayed.

  • Reply to

    Q1 guidance is bad - stay away

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 8:05 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 28, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    At which point I will be happy to buy even more of this company. Hahahahahahaha shorty is about to get squeezed big time.

  • Reply to

    Q1 guidance is bad - stay away

    by pinky76123 Jan 28, 2016 8:05 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 28, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    Dividend is solid and will not be cut. I'll take my 5%+ ROI while I wait for the market to improve. NO PROBLEM

  • Reply to

    Predict the date we break $10

    by topline1 Jan 26, 2016 4:44 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 27, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    Before the next dividend... When exactly is not important. Knowing your going to make at least 20% within 90 days is enough.

  • Reply to

    CY, $6 AFTER EARNINGS REPORT

    by republicannot5000 Jan 27, 2016 2:46 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 27, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    Put down the crack pipe and cover your short position while you can.

  • Reply to

    THIS IS JUNK STOCK

    by hd317 Jan 25, 2016 10:19 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 25, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    Keep shorting this stock at your own peril. More shares short than are actually available. Check out quantity short vs what is floating and not owned by institutions and insiders...

  • Reply to

    CY confirmed Q4 guidance

    by tuvacsmind Jan 21, 2016 3:53 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 21, 2016 8:29 PM Flag

    Go look in the news releases "Cypress to Address Two Investor Conferences in January" You can go the the company web site and get the link to hear what was said. They are paying off debt faster than expected and absolutely not going to cut the dividend. If you shorted this stock you had better cover quickly. In 20 years of trading I have never before seen a company so clearly communicate that they are about to go up by a lot...

  • Reply to

    CY confirmed Q4 guidance

    by tuvacsmind Jan 21, 2016 3:53 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 21, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    These questions were already answered in the conference call onthe 14th I think... Check out the company web site for a replay of the conference. Things are looking great. On top of that the window for repurchases opens tomorrow. I for one am not selling my stock for anything less than a very nice profit. Hell we might see another chip maker make a healthy offer for the company, either way we got big news on the way tomorrow and on the 28th. Hold on this is going to be fun.

  • I just want to thank the people who sold me their shares.

  • Reply to

    Whats going on?

    by cuba2128 Jan 19, 2016 11:19 AM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 19, 2016 3:58 PM Flag

    In the conference call they said they would not cut the dividend period.... Also said they were going to be paying off debt much faster due to increased revenue. So my guess is that either CY is being pulled down with the rest on China fears or the MMs are collecting shares from weak hands.Either way I am in at $8.79, $8.29 and if this price holds I will buy a lot more, just need to free up some cash.

  • Reply to

    I bought again@ 8.47

    by hd317 Jan 8, 2016 5:03 PM
    scooter_in_fl scooter_in_fl Jan 8, 2016 8:15 PM Flag

    I have traded this stock for years and never lost money buying in the 8s it is a great company and I really liked the webcast... Did you get a chance to hear it. Looks like the company is positioned well.

ETP
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