Haven't visited this for a while, wondering what all our liberal friends are thinking about the current headlines.
Benghazi, IRS, DOJ wiretaps; we kind of forgot about Fast and Furious. The President has culpable deniability, he wasn't around for any of these mess ups, only in the situation room to command Seal Team 6 to take out Bin Laden. Somehow, he missed the memo that the consulate was under attack...just where was he for the final 4-5 hours of the assault and killing of Americans? In bed?
As to the wiretaps, well BO nor his AG knew anything about them.
As to the IRS, ditto, the President didn't have a clue.
Maybe that's why we never saw the transcripts from college. He's just not that smart? Or lying? Or just perhaps, a combo.
The economy will continue to grow for another 3-5 quarters. Then a brief stall, followed by renewed growth in 15, 16. At the point that we see unemployment around 6%, inflation will rear it's head, which will be around 2017. So you have a wait. After that, we'll have steadily increasing interest rates over the next 10 years or so. The Fed won't be able to retract the $ injected into the system. At the point that oil rapidly increases in dollar denominated price, then you will see PM pricing take off.
So I wouldn't hold my breath, waiting for a near term spike. Suspect prices will remain at this level for a while. Buy physical in large lots, be patient. Or buy real estate, rental property. Either way, you will have to be patient, absent a political scare (like Iran or NK doing something stupid).
skari, did the same, but did sell a little Ag on the way up at 38.60 (went into the 40s), now need to quit waiting and buy again.
boymart, in a major metro area with 2 or more larger dealers, you can find spot plus $1 for 100 or 200 oz purchases. I suspect in smaller towns, not the case. Anyone tried larger on-line purcahses? BTW, if you are buying in 1-10 oz quantities for long-term, suggest you save your money until you can do a larger increment; the difference in markup is a killer.
Some production is hedged "would have thought miners lay off some price risk with short positions" by selling contracts in the futures market.
Gold and silver production only mines will look at their cost basis for production, adjust accordingly if these prices stay down for any length of time. Including idleling production.
Copper, lead, zinc production where silver is a significant byproduct will continue, unless those commodities also experience the above.
That said, the momentum players are bailing. The long-term investor who knows what is happening with fiat currencies will stand fast, even at $1200 Au and $22 Ag. My last purchase of each was $450 and $12 in 1999/2000 (but I did sell some Ag bullion at $38 cause I thought it was time to take some profit). At these prices, it's compelling to add to Ag positions with the ongoing race to the bottom by the major reserve currencies.
Nothing has changed the outlook of the cyclical bull market. Until we get another Reagan/Volker scenario, where the leadership in DC seeks to protect purchasing power of accumulated savings, vs. monetize the debt.
You only need to look at the price of gold in yen over the last 90 days to understand what the future looks like when the dust finally settles.
andre, why would GS have an interest in taking a position that would show that "there is no inflation."? Most of the GS executive contributions in 2012 went to Romney, not Obama; they were upset with his bashing of them. So what is your thought process for them to be looking to artificially suppress CPI numbers, if they weren't in Obama's back pocket?
Also, why would GS take a position contrary to the ultimate direction of the market, unless you think there's is a very short term trading position? Anyone with an uncovered short in PM markets, for any period of time, risks taking a serious hit. GS has some incredibly bright folks.
Just curious if you had insight or just a theory.
I cleaned up my message board by putting the "sillies" on ignore. The spammers take a little longer with their multiple ids. Insect copies and pastes prior posts, so its a waste of time to read 'em.
Anyone have a good site to go to for REE prices? Curious how to directly monitor the market, not as easy to do as precious metals. Seems like the best way to stay informed on future earnings...
market, you are a funny guy. $4 an ounce?! Need to add a zero to that number, which is where it will be in less than 12 months.
Spoken like a true long! Keep the faith, it still could go to $1000 a share. Just need more enthusiasm...
Looking at the longer term (10 year) chart of silver and gold prices, it's a good correlation to how much new paper currency the Treasury has been printing. Even my wife can see where this is going.
Which makes me wonder how much longer PM pricing is going to linger at this level. Reagan/Volker broke the back of inflation through tight monetary policy, giving American savers a break. Our current Fed and DC leadership are taking the exact opposite track, buying most of short term debt and with the apparent aim to monetize our deficit . Inflation is running well above the government official rate, so I can't find anything to suggest that the short crowd is anything but correct and hoping for a quick spike down with short term profit.
tchen389, explain the specific trade that you would make on both the long and short side. Buy stock/calls, buy puts/short stock?
true still less than half of the $38. another cited CINF, which also peaked in 2006, ultimately falling to less than half it's share value, now almost recovered. Like CINF, STFC is moving into new states and new markets, gaining rate while gaining market share. This is a cyclical market, regional carriers have mixed results, but all are in an up cycle. I would pose that STFC has greater potential for gain than many others that have already realized a significant move up.
Really cleans up the board posts if you put the trash on ignore. You can always reopen an individual post if you miss the CAPS and repitition.
Coyote's are a nuisance, breed like rabbits, are a carrier of rabies and pick off our pets, even close in to downtown Austin, Houston. I have had one go after my dog, so don't blame Perry in the least for nailing one going after his. Fortunately, since mountain lions have returned rural central and east Texas, the coyotes are starting to thin out. Cougars don't like 'em either.
Will have to google the gold repository idea. With the projected $8 B state surplus, one idea we've floated to our legislators (they hold sessions for 5 plus months once every 2 years, in session now until June 1) is to buy the Enterprise, which is going to be scrapped. If the U.S. would sell, would save the U.S. taxpayer $100M or so in dismantaling costs. Nuclear reactors are the cost in decommissioning.
Retrofit, re-equip, and use for both reserve training purposes or for backup for US as DC slowly dismantles our military.
keeve06, some states have private funds that teachers pay into, some states have state funds that guarantee a set amount based upon minimal contributions for teachers. While those contribution amounts are slowly going up, when talking about tri-state area, folks working for state or county gov (NY) have a pretty nice retirement. One of my bro-in-laws retired from his county police department with equivalent of 100% of his normal pay (he put in a lot of overtime, which bumped the number)...at age 55. And health insurance for him and his spouse to age 65. Another bro-in-law retired from the railroad (again, NY state) with 75% of his normal pay. His spouse also receives 50% of his normal pay for a ... ta da... 125% of what he made before he retired, at age 60. Plus health insurance to age 65.
While I love these guys and am happy for their "golden" years after investing 30 years working for the county or state gov, it's pretty easy to see why NY goes from one fiscal crisis to the next.
Or another relative telling me that her niece and spouse are moving from TX to CA due to health issues with a child. Seems that CA will pay substantial benefits for chronically ill youth, vs. hard hearted TX where the parents have to pay a substantial amount of the upkeep out of their own pockets. My CA clients tell me that this is typical, and another reason why their state totters from one fiscal crisis to the next. Folks who want freebes will migrate to where they get the most goodies; folks who want the most opportunity to succeed will migrate out of the same venues to states such as TX. Happening every single day.