extremewhatever is a short, is probably getting pummelled with the quick move up.
Don't follow world demand stats, but a number of mines are mothballing, not just silver but also cu, pb, tin. Like anything else, once costs exceed profits, these guys are forced into closures. Exceptions to every rule, but with Cu at 2.25 p/ounce and a number of prominent projects in slow mo (including a couple that friends are involved in) or outright cancellation, it's pretty obvious that there will be a supply imbalance in a year or two if prices don't go up soon. It's going to be a very interesting 24 month period for pm and base metal commodities. If China doesn't blow up, and the projected slow down only lasts through 2014, inflation will start heating up in 2015. Putting further pressure on mine economics until the metals prices increase. Butterfly effect...
As long as unemployment remains above 6% and other major currencies are working the printing press overtime, we aren't in trouble over Fed debt. Since I don't think any major currency will practice fiscal discipline (at least they haven't to-date), the inflation counter will start buzzing when unemployment drops, corresponding with the economy heating up. Starting 2015/16/17. Any guess where PM prices will be, especially with mine closures in the works?
Just look to housing prices as a guide (true, some relevance to capped interest rates, but pricing pressure will remain none-the-less due to construction costs rising).
Butterfly effect. DC's and the Fed's actions have unknown consequences, just takes time to be seen. Just look how Fannie/Freddie push by Congress impacted the financial markets. Took 10 years. Or further back, look at CRA impact on lending activity to financially unstable borrowers, the genesis of Fran/Fred excesses. Took 30 years.
Conn's stores tend to be in areas with good roads. Few ditches. And these days folks down on the farm don't rely on beef sales as much as mineral royalties . But you have a point on the fridge; we just put our groceries on the porch this winter. But then the dog gets into the meat, and it's a royal mess, so we wind up putting everything in the fridge anyway. Either that or shoot the dog.
livestrong, so let me see if I understand this line of thought. Laying off miners ("closing mines") will create more jobs when the mines reopen? You need to quit watching Obama's and Nancy Pelosi's press conferences.
everfoxy, I have been following this stock since Sept '08, made money on the short side during the fall melt-down, have given most if not all of it back in 09, 10, and 11 trying to apply logic to the valuation (and score another big win). It's insane to keep trying to beat CRM on the short side, even though logically, being long is equally crazy at this elevation. I don't see much chance of reality taking over on the valuation as long as non-GAAP is accepted cloud sector accounting and growth is the ultimate metric for valuation.
It will take stalled growth to bring this back to earth.
without financial institutions, every thing sold/purchased in this country would be on the barter system. Pay cash for your purchase (or a chicken, goods, etc.) on everything you do? Chilling impact on the economy, growth, job creation, etc.
If you want to point fingers at the villians of the last downturn, banks are a convenient target. But if you want to dig deeper to the root cause, all roads lead to DC. No money down lending by Fannie, Freddie, a home for every American, regardless of their ability to pay, with the banks collateralizing and selling those "Federally backed" loans because Fannie and Freddie were offering same. AIG ? Greed backed pols replacing senior management with their own cronies. GM and Chrysler ? Union contracts making inflexible work rules and high cost/low innovation autos.
How did the US gov (dem congress 2007-2010) change things after the 2008 crash? They threw gobs of taxpayer dollars via borrowing from the treasury at the problem. The Fed only does what the government pols demand, regardless of the conspiracy theories.