Hua...just based on price action alone, over the past two years, we have been sitting at the $24-25 range, for an exceptionally long time. Early morning news about FNHC changing accountants probably won't help the stock today (Friday). But as you say, reinsurance is now behind us. Let us hope for a quiet hurricane season. Even with some average activity in storm damage, things should be OK. Returning to at least $30 per share in the next few months should not be difficult. Eager to see this quarter's report. -Scott
So, bob, what is your read on the reasons for the big PPS drop? You seem to be optimistic, as I am. But it does shake some confidence that the PPS can drop so hugely without specific bad news, doesn't it? -Scott
And here's some more positive data about NEWM, according to Yahoo Finance: Forward PE of 12; Price to book of 1.5; Est 2015 EPS is $.88 and est for 2016 is $1.57; of 5 analysts they list the consensus is 1.2 strong buy rating, with the high PPS target of $37 and the low of $30 (Friday closed at just under $19); over last 52 weeks, PPS has rised 28% compared to the S & P rising only 7.3%.
Makes me think that this is a re-set, a correction, in a market that is now overly nervous, with Greece, etc.
Other thoughts? -Scott
Any thoughts on this major drop in PPS, without any real news? I wonder if day traders saw a big opportunity with only 311k shares traded daily on average? And fears about staff cuts in the new purchase of Columbus newspaper? I'm leaning in that direction. With current yield of 6%, and its excellent track record, I am a long term holder. -Scott
Big drop today, and it is not yet the end of the day. And already about ten times the normal volume. There must be some news coming out. I cannot image that the buying of Columbus newspaper has caused this big drop. There must be something else. -Scott
Thanks, hua...always appreciate your wisdom on FNHC. I am not as confident as you are that that "wild gyration" in PPS action is ending....I think it will remain until Monarch business takes hold over the next 1-2 years. But, hey, picking up shares at the $25-26 range is a no-brainer, in my opinion. See you back at $30 over the next few months, I suspect. -Scott
Hey jatink....good to see you posting, for the first time, maybe. Glad to hear that you are also heavily invested in FNHC, and for the long term. There are 2-3 very good posters on this board. Very informed about insurance business it seems. FNHC trades are very volatile, not uncommon to see 20% up or down, over a 1-3 month time period. I have this sense that day traders like it a lot. In my opinion, this is a solid $30 stock, regardless. And once Monarch business starts ramping up, I think it is easily a $35 stock. And in 2-3 years I would not be surprised to see $40. But it will definitely be a bumpy ride up to that point. And if the upcoming hurricane season results in some Florida damage, well, even more bumps. -Scott