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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 138 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 19, 2016 2:50 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 19, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    Fieldman...you may have "gut" feelings for SNC, over FNHC, but I am not convinced. On key stats FNHC comes out ahead, sometimes way ahead--for example PE for FNHC is 6.8, for SNC is 21. Price to book for FNHC is a very low 1.2, for SNC is 2.2. And so it goes.

    And when I compare SNC to another insurance company I own, MHLD, it seems MHLD also wins, hands down. SNC is only better than MHLD in lower debt and marginally better return on earnings (ROE).

    Else in comparison, first number is MHLD, second is SNC: PE=10 vs. 21; Forward PE= 6.4 vs. 11.5; Price to book: 1.1 vs. 2.2; Divvy yield 4.5% vs. 1.9% (though SNC has only started divvies in the past 3 years and might have bigger increases going forward); Estimated earnings for next year compared to this current is predicted up 20% vs. up 13%. The stats on SNC are decent, but it seems that MHLD is a better value all around.

    Am I missing something? -Scott

  • OK news this morning, about $10 million buyback of shares. But in my calculations this is only 3.6% of shares outstanding. That is good, but not fantastic news, in my opinion. The price jumped at open, on this news, but I suspect shares will end up flat for the day. At $20 per share, significant price appreciation will require patience and the continued steady hand of seasoned and respected management. But for the PPS to drop from a recent high of $32 (on Oct 28, 2015) to the recent low of $19.16 (on Mar 10, 2016), well, that does shake one's confidence. For those picking up shares now, I also imagine there will be quite a bit of selling in the next 3-6 months as the price goes back to a more "normal" price of $25+ . Some quick money to be made here, I think, which probably will mean more volatility in the months to come. And on top of that, the start of a new hurricane season, with its uncertainty. -Scott.

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 9, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    I agree wholeheartedly, golly....and in the Q & A part of the CC, Wes Edens talks about stock buybacks or possibly a special divvy to reward patient shareholders. Actually, today (Wed) I bought 1500 more shares, not a lot of $, but am putting my money where my mouth is. By mid 2017 we hopefully will see good progress made on the new golf-entertainment complexes at several golf courses. Wes Edens has done very well for himself and patient shareholders, over the past several years. I am very willing to make an investment in him and in his experienced management team. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 9, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    Also, nicely covering divvy, with AFFO annual of .84 and divvy of only .48. Lots of plans by Wes Edens, who successfully spun off NEWM and NRZ from NCT in the past few years, with overall fantastic returns to shareholders who have been patient. The golf course business overall in the States is a bit flat, but Wes and company have fantastic plans for the future. Also, golf courses own an incredible amount of real estate, which they are seeking to convert into new centers with games, food, entertainment, bringing a younger demographic into their golf courses. This is a penny stock, less than $5, but with patience, this could be a fantastic holding. And while you wait, an excellent divvy yield which is more than sufficiently covered by earnings. Not GAAP earnings, but AFFO earnings. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 8, 2016 7:29 AM Flag

    Thanks, fabulous, as always, you are perceptive and gracious. And now I understand that you posted shortly after you shorted... that helps. And to clarify, I surely do not put you in the category of windbags who boast about their profits after the fact. You are correct in your statement that you have been saying for quite a while that you think FNHC is a stock to be traded, not held for a long time at these prices. But now at $21, I think we probably have a nice base here. FNHC has always had quite a bit of volatility in its prices. I just don't have the time or the energy to watch it daily. Thanks. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 7, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Ah, fabulous...always have appreciated your comments over the years. This time around, however, it would have been better if you had indicated your shorting before the quarterly report today. It sorta looks like, well, Monday morning quarterbacking. And it seems to put you in the category of the windbags on various boards....boasting about their "after the fact trades."

    So, for the sake of us who are not traders, but are long term holders, for the next 5 years, do you think FNHC has what it takes to steadily be increasing its profits, market share, earnings, etc? Or in the same 5 year window do you think there is a better FL insurer?

    -Scott

  • Reply to

    New FHCF contract

    by biotechisfun Mar 3, 2016 9:27 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 4, 2016 7:32 AM Flag

    Biotech...is your question about interpretation about the high change in the percentage participation by FNHC, from 10% in 2015-2016 to 25% in 2016-2017? Or is it the cost increase that you are concerned about? About the latter, with policies increasing about 30% per year, it seems that the cost going up about 27% is in line. But the percentage participation is more troubling. Maybe they have larger set asides, cash on hand, this coming year than the previous year. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Mar 7 Quarterly earnings release

    by scottr2958 Feb 29, 2016 9:59 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Feb 29, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    Thanks for your thoughts, biotech. I agree fully when you say that "this sector is quite out of favor at the moment." Berkshire Hathaway showed poor returns on its insurance company, Geico, in its report released this past Friday/Saturday. Also, a good insurer recommended by Motley Fool, MHLD (which I own) has also been down...while also being a solid company with excellent valuations. So it seems that FNHC is in good company with its depressed prices lately. And hopefully, like all good companies, they will recover in their PPS as long as they keep doing what they do best, don't get too greedy, and keep providing reliable service at a competitive price. -Scott

  • One week from today, on March 7, FNHC releases its 4th Q earnings. I have been surprised that the PPS has dropped so low, given all the good ratios and valuations on this company. I mean where can you find a company today that has both a trailing and forward PE of around 8; a price book ratio of 1.5; and and ROE of nearly 20%? Where? On top of that, long term executives who do not over-promise and who have given steady leadership over the past many years. FNHC seems to have very good reputation among FL insurers. Yes, growth rates on new policies have slowed in the past couple of quarters...but there is still good growth. I am hopeful that a good quarterly report one week from today will give a well-deserved boost to the PPS. -Scott

  • Reply to

    A Propserous FNHC New Year!

    by scottr2958 Jan 2, 2016 9:05 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jan 21, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    Welcome to this board, biotech....I don't recall you posting previously. Do you hold shares, or thinking about buying...or? -Scott

  • Reply to

    AVO recommended by Motley Fool Canada

    by scottr2958 Dec 9, 2015 11:16 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jan 16, 2016 7:57 AM Flag

    But, sadly, it has continued to drop. I sold on Jan 15 for $12.60. I might it back in a few months. I really like its products and its website, particularly in a context of increased security needs at shopping malls, airports, parking lots, etc etc. And it owns many patents. -Scott

  • To the few regular posters on this board let me wish you a prosperous New Year for 2016. And a prosperous FNHC for this year! It closed the year below $30, but in these past few weeks the PPS has been all over the place. I'm hoping for a good and continuing base of $31 soon. I did sell some shares around $31.50 and will be a buyer if it drops significantly below $30. I wonder what the next quarterly report will show? Any predictions for you regular posters? -Scott

  • AVO has been recommended by Motley Fool Canada for the past year, year and a half. Even when it was trading around $17-18. Now around $13, I think it is a good deal. I have been very impressed with their company website, as well as their increasing earnings and other indications of good value. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Hey, Fabulous, your opinion?

    by scottr2958 Nov 6, 2015 1:15 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 11, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Thanks so much....I always value your opinion. Strange how some posters give their two cents worth once or twice, never to be heard from again. Maybe day traders. Wonder where hua has been lately? -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Nov 9, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    PPS hit a new all time high today at $9.10. Sounds like something could be in the works...maybe a sale of the company? Or something else? We shall know in the next week or so. -Scott

  • Hey, Fabulous, what is your opinion of the q3 earnings report? Might it in fact hit $33-34 by the end of December, given the valuations of companies like UVE? I personally think it might. -Scott

  • • 46.6% increase in net income to $10.6 million
    • 41.1% increase in gross premiums written to $129.8 million
    • 38.3% increase in Florida homeowners' policies to approximately 230,000
    • 24.1% increase in book value per share, including non-controlling interest, to $17.53 and a 14.8% increase in book value per share, excluding non-controlling interest, to $16.22 as compared with $14.13 at December 31, 2014
    -Scott

  • Reply to

    Here comes $32

    by scottr2958 Oct 28, 2015 11:24 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 29, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Strange, isn't it....Yahoo showed that I had a response to my posting. It must have been yours, Fabulous. But I also could not find it. Oh well. I have been following your comments and thoughts long enough to know that you are a shrewd investor and that you made some nice $$ on trading the price swing on FNHC.

    I think I am going to wait for selling until the $33-34 level, which I am fairly confident will be reached. Then selling only a portion. Then, like you, I might wait for a good opportunity to pick up some shares in the mid-twenties, and sell those a year from now in the low 30s. One will always make money in the stock market if you buy low and sell high.

    But, moving into early retirement, I also want to hold onto steady gainers, with annually increasing divvies. Do you have any recommendations on those kinds of stocks, Fab? I just picked up some R near its low point. Like the valuations. And yesterday I was very excited to read the quarterly report about BGCP. That's probably my biggest holding at this point, and the senior management has proven itself very trustworthy and following through on all their long term plans. The $9 stock is an easy $13-14 stock in the next six months in my opinion and nicely increasing divvies. Plus a probable spin-off in the works, as a bonus. -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Oct 28, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Nice pricing action in the past week or so. PPS has now been over $30 for 6 days. Back in April 2015 it was above $30 for 16 days. And, the time before that, way back in October 2014, the above $30 lasted for 11 days. But, in both run-ups, the price crashed back down significantly. As we know, the past cannot absolutely predict the future, but pricing trends are informative. Seems to me that we could hit $35 particularly if the Q3 report is better than expected. As I mentioned in a previous post, had any of us bought at the recent low of $23 that would result in more than a 50% gain. Wow. Perhaps, like fabulous once commented, FNHC is more of a trading stock, buying when it goes into the mid 20s and selling when it hits the mid 30s.
    Either way, I am looking for some nice profits in the next couple of weeks. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Be ready for the drop!

    by trumpforpresident Oct 28, 2015 7:50 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 28, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    Agree wholeheartedly, stockinfodude.... poster "trumpforpresident" shows his lack of insight and knowledge, particularly on the world stage. He has ranted against women (except for the beauty pagent models he ends up marrying...and divorcing, as they get older), Latinos (who will be making up the second largest ethnic group in the USA in a few years, and other immigrants (all Americans, except the Native peoples are immigrants, including Trump's ancestors). What a disgrace to American values and virtues. BGCP turned in excellent, spectacular earnings today, Tuesday, and the PPS could hit $12 within the next 12 months, all while yielding a 6.7% divvy while we wait. Onward and upward! -Scott

FNHC
19.07+0.13(+0.69%)Apr 28 4:00 PMEDT