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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 20 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 9:04 AM Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    A serious post, not spam

    by scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:06 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 27, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    On Friday, 4 days after I bought, company announces a huge SPO. In my calculation, it increases the outstanding shares by 15%. Will this prove to be dilutive? Is it really to "pay down debt" as the news story says...or will it help to pay the fairly high divvy? Again, let's try to get serious posters to this board, not spammers. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Rentech/Enviva.

    by michael446782 May 24, 2016 12:20 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 24, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    In what way are Rentech and Enviva a perfect match? With Rentech I see a company with lots of trouble in the past and with a stock price that has dropped and/or stayed flat for the past couple of years. Apart from dealing with wood pellets, I see no good reason why EVA would want to get involved with Rentech. Am I missing something? -Scott

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high today!

    by icdcweb May 11, 2016 9:54 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 24, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Hi icdc...let's get this board going, with regular posters, not the spammers. Good price increase yesterday, Monday, and at open today, looks like another good day is coming. How long have you held EVA? I bought my first shares about 4 months ago and doubled my holdings two weeks ago. -Scott

  • Reply to

    A serious post, not spam

    by scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:06 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Several positive points indicating good valuation, including trailing PE of 21, forward PE of 13, return on equity of 29%, year over year earnings growth of 400%, high insider ownership, and divvy yield of 6.2%. I can find only three negatives, and none of them seem horrible, including: divvy payout of 124% (but with such high return on equity, the divvy should be covered by end of year), only followed by one or two analysts (not necessarily a bad thing!), and the institutional holders seem to be mostly second and third tier, some of them unknown to me (perhaps are corporations of insiders). I think this is a good one! -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    So, today, May 23, I bought a few hundred shares. And unlike very often, the stock actually went up instead of down the day I bought it. :) I have not done a ton of research on this, but insiders own a lot and are big buyers. The divvy is spectacular, and increasing. I see that by 2 p.m. EST the PPS also hit a one-year high on very heavy volume. Anyone else following this one? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Opinions on First Q 2016?

    by scottr2958 May 3, 2016 5:43 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 4, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    At 12 noon, the PPS is up a whopping $2.50, 13% + And the volume is twice the normal, with only half the day behind us. Might hit four times normal volume by end of day. But the day traders seem to be quite active with FNHC, so beware of a potential significant decline from today's high. FNHC has always required patience. And it seems like we have to be patient for quite a while longer, to get back to $30. -Scott

  • So what are your opinions on First Q 2016?

    Seems to me to be OK, though not quite as good as past quarters. According to their release,
    • 27.5% increase in gross written premiums to $136.0 million
    • 25.5% increase in total revenue to $69.0 million
    • 23.1% increase in Florida homeowners’ policies to approximately 253,000
    • 3.9% increase in book value per share, including noncontrolling interest, to $18.89

    According to those who regularly post, and my own calculations, here are the previous counts on policies.
    Total policy count:
    For 2011 was 49,000
    For 2012 was 67,000
    For 2013 was 134,000
    For 2014 was 182, 500
    For 2015 was 243,000

    Right now PPS is right at about current book value. Seems to be good value at this point. Fabulous, Hua (haven't heard from you lately), and biotechisfun, what do you think? -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 19, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    Fieldman...you may have "gut" feelings for SNC, over FNHC, but I am not convinced. On key stats FNHC comes out ahead, sometimes way ahead--for example PE for FNHC is 6.8, for SNC is 21. Price to book for FNHC is a very low 1.2, for SNC is 2.2. And so it goes.

    And when I compare SNC to another insurance company I own, MHLD, it seems MHLD also wins, hands down. SNC is only better than MHLD in lower debt and marginally better return on earnings (ROE).

    Else in comparison, first number is MHLD, second is SNC: PE=10 vs. 21; Forward PE= 6.4 vs. 11.5; Price to book: 1.1 vs. 2.2; Divvy yield 4.5% vs. 1.9% (though SNC has only started divvies in the past 3 years and might have bigger increases going forward); Estimated earnings for next year compared to this current is predicted up 20% vs. up 13%. The stats on SNC are decent, but it seems that MHLD is a better value all around.

    Am I missing something? -Scott

  • OK news this morning, about $10 million buyback of shares. But in my calculations this is only 3.6% of shares outstanding. That is good, but not fantastic news, in my opinion. The price jumped at open, on this news, but I suspect shares will end up flat for the day. At $20 per share, significant price appreciation will require patience and the continued steady hand of seasoned and respected management. But for the PPS to drop from a recent high of $32 (on Oct 28, 2015) to the recent low of $19.16 (on Mar 10, 2016), well, that does shake one's confidence. For those picking up shares now, I also imagine there will be quite a bit of selling in the next 3-6 months as the price goes back to a more "normal" price of $25+ . Some quick money to be made here, I think, which probably will mean more volatility in the months to come. And on top of that, the start of a new hurricane season, with its uncertainty. -Scott.

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 9, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    I agree wholeheartedly, golly....and in the Q & A part of the CC, Wes Edens talks about stock buybacks or possibly a special divvy to reward patient shareholders. Actually, today (Wed) I bought 1500 more shares, not a lot of $, but am putting my money where my mouth is. By mid 2017 we hopefully will see good progress made on the new golf-entertainment complexes at several golf courses. Wes Edens has done very well for himself and patient shareholders, over the past several years. I am very willing to make an investment in him and in his experienced management team. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 9, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    Also, nicely covering divvy, with AFFO annual of .84 and divvy of only .48. Lots of plans by Wes Edens, who successfully spun off NEWM and NRZ from NCT in the past few years, with overall fantastic returns to shareholders who have been patient. The golf course business overall in the States is a bit flat, but Wes and company have fantastic plans for the future. Also, golf courses own an incredible amount of real estate, which they are seeking to convert into new centers with games, food, entertainment, bringing a younger demographic into their golf courses. This is a penny stock, less than $5, but with patience, this could be a fantastic holding. And while you wait, an excellent divvy yield which is more than sufficiently covered by earnings. Not GAAP earnings, but AFFO earnings. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 8, 2016 7:29 AM Flag

    Thanks, fabulous, as always, you are perceptive and gracious. And now I understand that you posted shortly after you shorted... that helps. And to clarify, I surely do not put you in the category of windbags who boast about their profits after the fact. You are correct in your statement that you have been saying for quite a while that you think FNHC is a stock to be traded, not held for a long time at these prices. But now at $21, I think we probably have a nice base here. FNHC has always had quite a bit of volatility in its prices. I just don't have the time or the energy to watch it daily. Thanks. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 7, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Ah, fabulous...always have appreciated your comments over the years. This time around, however, it would have been better if you had indicated your shorting before the quarterly report today. It sorta looks like, well, Monday morning quarterbacking. And it seems to put you in the category of the windbags on various boards....boasting about their "after the fact trades."

    So, for the sake of us who are not traders, but are long term holders, for the next 5 years, do you think FNHC has what it takes to steadily be increasing its profits, market share, earnings, etc? Or in the same 5 year window do you think there is a better FL insurer?

    -Scott

  • Reply to

    New FHCF contract

    by biotechisfun Mar 3, 2016 9:27 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 4, 2016 7:32 AM Flag

    Biotech...is your question about interpretation about the high change in the percentage participation by FNHC, from 10% in 2015-2016 to 25% in 2016-2017? Or is it the cost increase that you are concerned about? About the latter, with policies increasing about 30% per year, it seems that the cost going up about 27% is in line. But the percentage participation is more troubling. Maybe they have larger set asides, cash on hand, this coming year than the previous year. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Mar 7 Quarterly earnings release

    by scottr2958 Feb 29, 2016 9:59 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Feb 29, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    Thanks for your thoughts, biotech. I agree fully when you say that "this sector is quite out of favor at the moment." Berkshire Hathaway showed poor returns on its insurance company, Geico, in its report released this past Friday/Saturday. Also, a good insurer recommended by Motley Fool, MHLD (which I own) has also been down...while also being a solid company with excellent valuations. So it seems that FNHC is in good company with its depressed prices lately. And hopefully, like all good companies, they will recover in their PPS as long as they keep doing what they do best, don't get too greedy, and keep providing reliable service at a competitive price. -Scott

  • One week from today, on March 7, FNHC releases its 4th Q earnings. I have been surprised that the PPS has dropped so low, given all the good ratios and valuations on this company. I mean where can you find a company today that has both a trailing and forward PE of around 8; a price book ratio of 1.5; and and ROE of nearly 20%? Where? On top of that, long term executives who do not over-promise and who have given steady leadership over the past many years. FNHC seems to have very good reputation among FL insurers. Yes, growth rates on new policies have slowed in the past couple of quarters...but there is still good growth. I am hopeful that a good quarterly report one week from today will give a well-deserved boost to the PPS. -Scott

  • Reply to

    A Propserous FNHC New Year!

    by scottr2958 Jan 2, 2016 9:05 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jan 21, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    Welcome to this board, biotech....I don't recall you posting previously. Do you hold shares, or thinking about buying...or? -Scott

  • Reply to

    AVO recommended by Motley Fool Canada

    by scottr2958 Dec 9, 2015 11:16 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jan 16, 2016 7:57 AM Flag

    But, sadly, it has continued to drop. I sold on Jan 15 for $12.60. I might it back in a few months. I really like its products and its website, particularly in a context of increased security needs at shopping malls, airports, parking lots, etc etc. And it owns many patents. -Scott

  • To the few regular posters on this board let me wish you a prosperous New Year for 2016. And a prosperous FNHC for this year! It closed the year below $30, but in these past few weeks the PPS has been all over the place. I'm hoping for a good and continuing base of $31 soon. I did sell some shares around $31.50 and will be a buyer if it drops significantly below $30. I wonder what the next quarterly report will show? Any predictions for you regular posters? -Scott

  • AVO has been recommended by Motley Fool Canada for the past year, year and a half. Even when it was trading around $17-18. Now around $13, I think it is a good deal. I have been very impressed with their company website, as well as their increasing earnings and other indications of good value. -Scott

FNHC
21.52+0.23(+1.08%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT