Hua...just based on price action alone, over the past two years, we have been sitting at the $24-25 range, for an exceptionally long time. Early morning news about FNHC changing accountants probably won't help the stock today (Friday). But as you say, reinsurance is now behind us. Let us hope for a quiet hurricane season. Even with some average activity in storm damage, things should be OK. Returning to at least $30 per share in the next few months should not be difficult. Eager to see this quarter's report. -Scott
So, bob, what is your read on the reasons for the big PPS drop? You seem to be optimistic, as I am. But it does shake some confidence that the PPS can drop so hugely without specific bad news, doesn't it? -Scott
And here's some more positive data about NEWM, according to Yahoo Finance: Forward PE of 12; Price to book of 1.5; Est 2015 EPS is $.88 and est for 2016 is $1.57; of 5 analysts they list the consensus is 1.2 strong buy rating, with the high PPS target of $37 and the low of $30 (Friday closed at just under $19); over last 52 weeks, PPS has rised 28% compared to the S & P rising only 7.3%.
Makes me think that this is a re-set, a correction, in a market that is now overly nervous, with Greece, etc.
Other thoughts? -Scott
Any thoughts on this major drop in PPS, without any real news? I wonder if day traders saw a big opportunity with only 311k shares traded daily on average? And fears about staff cuts in the new purchase of Columbus newspaper? I'm leaning in that direction. With current yield of 6%, and its excellent track record, I am a long term holder. -Scott
Big drop today, and it is not yet the end of the day. And already about ten times the normal volume. There must be some news coming out. I cannot image that the buying of Columbus newspaper has caused this big drop. There must be something else. -Scott
Thanks, hua...always appreciate your wisdom on FNHC. I am not as confident as you are that that "wild gyration" in PPS action is ending....I think it will remain until Monarch business takes hold over the next 1-2 years. But, hey, picking up shares at the $25-26 range is a no-brainer, in my opinion. See you back at $30 over the next few months, I suspect. -Scott
Hey jatink....good to see you posting, for the first time, maybe. Glad to hear that you are also heavily invested in FNHC, and for the long term. There are 2-3 very good posters on this board. Very informed about insurance business it seems. FNHC trades are very volatile, not uncommon to see 20% up or down, over a 1-3 month time period. I have this sense that day traders like it a lot. In my opinion, this is a solid $30 stock, regardless. And once Monarch business starts ramping up, I think it is easily a $35 stock. And in 2-3 years I would not be surprised to see $40. But it will definitely be a bumpy ride up to that point. And if the upcoming hurricane season results in some Florida damage, well, even more bumps. -Scott
Hello fellow FNHC followers. So, any predictions for the First Q report in terms of policy count? EPS? Lackluster stock action in the past couple of months, to be sure. From my perspective, the best thing that can be said is that a good floor of around $29-30 has been established, solidly established. Nonetheless, we are down 20%+ from 52-week PPS high of $37. In this current market, where can one find a growing company, with experienced and trusted long-term senior management, with such good past and future PE, P/B, ROA, etc? In this market, I cannot find many companies like that. So my sense is that FNHC is and continues to be a very successful company and with patience will continue to reward us long-term shareholders. You opinions? -Scott
PPS was down 4% this past Thursday, 4/2, while it had jumped up about 7% over the previous two days. Without any news, good or bad. Stock seems to be a favorite of day traders, etc. who profit from these wild swings in price. But for those of us who are patient, should be a good reward. -Scott
Hello all...well, it appears that FNHC has tested its nearterm low of around $28 and did not break through it. A very good sign. So, since late January, pps has been nicely above $28. And today, 3/31 perhaps will hold on to $31. In this somewhat over-priced market, where can you find a company which ha a trailing PE of less than 10, a forward PE of just above 10, a price/brook of 2.0? Furthermore, FNHC boasts a Return of Equity of 25% and has zero debt! The company has proven growth year-over-year, and good growth plans going forward, though admittedly not at the same high rate of growth as in the past 2-3 years. Its management is seasoned and trustworthy and well-respected in the industry. To be sure, the competition is strong and some drop in insurance premiums, but I am convinced these negatives are more than offset by the strong positives. So, onward to $35...and by the end of the year I would not be surprised to see $38. -Scott.
Hua, and would like response from Fabulous: Sorry Hua to hear that you are exiting FNHC for now. I thought you were a longer term investor, but we each have our own style in the market. I agree that the CC talked about competition and FNHC growth was slowed somewhat, but I still think the numbers and tone overall was positive. Obviously the market doesn't agree and the PPS remains below $30 per share. At least it has not collapsed by 10-30%, as it sometimes has done in the past. If it can hold $29-31 range for a couple of months, then we might be set up for better news in First Q 2015. Fabulous, what is your take on the Fourth Q report, Conf Call, and on the price action? Are you terribly disappointed? -Scott
So, what happened today, after the good 4th Q report came out? A solid report, but some slowdown in growth...good growth, but maybe not as robust as in the past. But almost all measures of profitability were up, some significantly up. Yet, by the end of the day the pps is down 4%. What gives? -Scott
Hua and Fabulous...indeed, great report today. Near the open PPS is up 3%....but by the end of the day it should be more like 6-10%, based on past experience with dramatic price fluctuations. 4th Q earnings at .72, going forward, on 4 quarters, that would be $2.88 earnings. With multiple of a very low 12, that gives us a price of $34.50, at a multiple of 15 that gives us $43. And as Fabulous reports, the news is looking even better for next year. So I think the likelihood of at least a $40 price by the end of 2015 is very, very good. Thanks for your good postings. -Scott