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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 8 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by huahua777 May 1, 2015 10:45 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 7 hours ago Flag

    Thanks, hua...always appreciate your wisdom on FNHC. I am not as confident as you are that that "wild gyration" in PPS action is ending....I think it will remain until Monarch business takes hold over the next 1-2 years. But, hey, picking up shares at the $25-26 range is a no-brainer, in my opinion. See you back at $30 over the next few months, I suspect. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 7 hours ago Flag

    Hey jatink....good to see you posting, for the first time, maybe. Glad to hear that you are also heavily invested in FNHC, and for the long term. There are 2-3 very good posters on this board. Very informed about insurance business it seems. FNHC trades are very volatile, not uncommon to see 20% up or down, over a 1-3 month time period. I have this sense that day traders like it a lot. In my opinion, this is a solid $30 stock, regardless. And once Monarch business starts ramping up, I think it is easily a $35 stock. And in 2-3 years I would not be surprised to see $40. But it will definitely be a bumpy ride up to that point. And if the upcoming hurricane season results in some Florida damage, well, even more bumps. -Scott

  • Hello fellow FNHC followers. So, any predictions for the First Q report in terms of policy count? EPS? Lackluster stock action in the past couple of months, to be sure. From my perspective, the best thing that can be said is that a good floor of around $29-30 has been established, solidly established. Nonetheless, we are down 20%+ from 52-week PPS high of $37. In this current market, where can one find a growing company, with experienced and trusted long-term senior management, with such good past and future PE, P/B, ROA, etc? In this market, I cannot find many companies like that. So my sense is that FNHC is and continues to be a very successful company and with patience will continue to reward us long-term shareholders. You opinions? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Tested $28 and prevailed

    by scottr2958 Mar 31, 2015 1:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Apr 4, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    PPS was down 4% this past Thursday, 4/2, while it had jumped up about 7% over the previous two days. Without any news, good or bad. Stock seems to be a favorite of day traders, etc. who profit from these wild swings in price. But for those of us who are patient, should be a good reward. -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Mar 31, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Hello all...well, it appears that FNHC has tested its nearterm low of around $28 and did not break through it. A very good sign. So, since late January, pps has been nicely above $28. And today, 3/31 perhaps will hold on to $31. In this somewhat over-priced market, where can you find a company which ha a trailing PE of less than 10, a forward PE of just above 10, a price/brook of 2.0? Furthermore, FNHC boasts a Return of Equity of 25% and has zero debt! The company has proven growth year-over-year, and good growth plans going forward, though admittedly not at the same high rate of growth as in the past 2-3 years. Its management is seasoned and trustworthy and well-respected in the industry. To be sure, the competition is strong and some drop in insurance premiums, but I am convinced these negatives are more than offset by the strong positives. So, onward to $35...and by the end of the year I would not be surprised to see $38. -Scott.

  • Reply to

    Valuation IV

    by huahua777 Feb 26, 2015 1:18 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Mar 7, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    Hua, and would like response from Fabulous: Sorry Hua to hear that you are exiting FNHC for now. I thought you were a longer term investor, but we each have our own style in the market. I agree that the CC talked about competition and FNHC growth was slowed somewhat, but I still think the numbers and tone overall was positive. Obviously the market doesn't agree and the PPS remains below $30 per share. At least it has not collapsed by 10-30%, as it sometimes has done in the past. If it can hold $29-31 range for a couple of months, then we might be set up for better news in First Q 2015. Fabulous, what is your take on the Fourth Q report, Conf Call, and on the price action? Are you terribly disappointed? -Scott

  • So, what happened today, after the good 4th Q report came out? A solid report, but some slowdown in growth...good growth, but maybe not as robust as in the past. But almost all measures of profitability were up, some significantly up. Yet, by the end of the day the pps is down 4%. What gives? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Valuation IV

    by huahua777 Feb 26, 2015 1:18 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Feb 27, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Hua and Fabulous...indeed, great report today. Near the open PPS is up 3%....but by the end of the day it should be more like 6-10%, based on past experience with dramatic price fluctuations. 4th Q earnings at .72, going forward, on 4 quarters, that would be $2.88 earnings. With multiple of a very low 12, that gives us a price of $34.50, at a multiple of 15 that gives us $43. And as Fabulous reports, the news is looking even better for next year. So I think the likelihood of at least a $40 price by the end of 2015 is very, very good. Thanks for your good postings. -Scott

FNHC
26.52+0.9200(+3.59%)May 4 4:00 PMEDT