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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 20 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 3 minutes ago Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Has dropped 34% from high

    by scottr2958 Nov 22, 2014 9:00 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 2 hours 3 minutes ago Flag

    Thanks jbear....I am a long-term holder for most of my shares and will only sell them if the pps hits ridiculously high prices, say, in next 2-4 months. But, a year from now, I think pps easily could be $32 and probably will continue to go up from there. But this is a very, very choppy stock. -Scott

  • As previously noted, the pps of FNHC repeatedly suffers large corrections. I used to say, up to 20% corrections, within just 2-4 weeks. At least that used to be the pattern. In the past 2 months, from a 5-year high of $37, to this week's intra-day low of $24.40, the correction was a massive 34%. Incredible. Looking back I am so glad I sold some at $32, and more at $34, though I missed the peak of $37. But I am patient with this company. I implicitly trust the excellent managers, who have remained calm in the midst of meltdown to $4-6 per share a couple of years ago. They and the company seem to be trusted by insurance brokers thoughout south Florida. Based on corrections in the past, I think this might be a opportunity to pick up some shares.
    -Scott

  • Reply to

    Valuation II

    by huahua777 Nov 8, 2014 3:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 14, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    A question for you, hua: of the 4 ratios you listed, which for you are the top two ratios, particularly in terms of insurance companies and their kind of business? So, for example, FNHC has the lowest P/E of the four companies, but they are a bit high, in comparison, on their PEG. But maybe the standard deviations on these ratios, comparing the four, are not significant. If not, then, for me, length of management and quality of management tip the balance toward FNHC. To what degree do you weigh that factor in comparing these 4? -Scott

  • Reply to

    SNR

    by xquestor Oct 31, 2014 10:58 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 10, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Bababara is now totally on "ignore." He or she clutters the NCT board, and now it seems like he/she wants to clutter this board. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Valuation II

    by huahua777 Nov 8, 2014 3:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 10, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    Hua...I like your comparisons, speaks well of FNHC. With you, of these 4 companies, I only own FNHC. The other big factor for me is the management of FNHC. Steady, not over-promising, optimistic about their company, long-term managers, solid guys. They seem to be team players and to really understand the role of relationships in the insurance industry....that trust goes a long, long ways. That, for me, is a better reason to hold on to FNHC for the long-term, watch the pps go back up to the mid-30's, and keep holding it for many years. I personally would like to see an increase in the divvy as a small reward to patient, long-term holders. I also believe that we have been incredibly fortunate to not have major storm/hurricane damage to the tri-country area in south Florida for several years in a row. This will change. And my sense is that the other companies will not come through the damage as well as FNHC will. Payment on claims, in a fair and timely manner, is one of the biggest tests of a good insurance company. On that score, I also trust FNHC. -Scott

  • Here we go...even worse than before. A 30% drop in pps in just 6 days. Wow. This would definitely be a time for people to pick up some shares. As Buffett says, the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. Don't know if FNHC is fully bloodied...but surely it has to be close to that point. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by huahua777 Oct 31, 2014 8:52 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 3, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Ah, hua....how right you are! Major correction from pps all time high of $37.04. According to my calculations, with stock price around 29.90 on Monday morning, we are down $7.14, or 19.3%. Wow. I am still a long time holder, but I am even more convinced to be selling some whenever the price gets around $34-$36. The big factor you may be overlooking is the stability of the senior management team, their persistence and patience, and their making good on long term plans. I have full confidence in them. I am less sure about the management of other insurance companies in FL. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Nov 3, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Please look back at my posts for the past 3-6 months. I have observed that this stock always retraces significantly from its high prices. Always. But the good news is that after some time of correction, it also always rebounds. Always. But this requires nerves of steel. As for me, I continue to be glad that I trimmed my holdings at $32 and more at $34. But long term this one is still a winner. Look at the 5-year chart and don't worry. Unless, of course, you bought at the very highest point. It might take a while to retrace that. Down 13% in the opening 30 minutes of trade on Monday. -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Oct 31, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Wow, how quiet this board has become. All the old posters seems to have lost interest. Today, Friday, a big correction, once again, like clockwork. Down from 5 year high a day or two ago to an intraday low today, Friday, about 9%. Probably more on Monday. Typical gyrations. Yet, as the overall good earnings report showed, this company is earning lots of money. And its profits have been increasing dramatically. So either hold on longer term...or sell a few hundred shares each time a new high is hit. And pick up more, when it retraces 15% or so. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 23, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Angy...this baby corrects within 2-14 days of hitting a new high. Which is about every 4-8 weeks. So I would mostly blame day traders. Lots of money made of FNHC, both ways. From a near high of $34 to now around 30.50 is a 10% correction already...maybe it will drop another $1-2 more. Wouldn't be surprised. But long term trend is up, up, up. Third Q report is soon. Anyone know when? -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 21, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    S12, hopefully more people picked up shares at the $19.50 level. Today, Oct 21, has hit a new high at $32.50. I sold some. Do you still hold some? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Be ready for a re-set to $23-$24

    by scottr2958 Sep 9, 2014 9:35 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 21, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Hi angy....I'm not a shorter of stocks. Too complicated for me, and it requires too much checking of the prices. I was urging folks to pick up more shares around the $24 level. Which they should have. Today, Oct 21 I sold some at $32.39. Still holding quite a bit, though. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Now testing new highs

    by scottr2958 Oct 2, 2014 12:35 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Oct 3, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Strong new all-time high today, at close on Friday. $29.09. Easily hitting $30 over the next months. But keep an eye out for those 10% corrections, or more. In one day the pps can drop 5% or more. I personally would not buy more at this price, but catch some on the corrections. They occur almost every 3-8 weeks over the past 2 years -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Oct 2, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    After dropping the predicting 10-15% in the past couple of weeks, the pps has broken through a new all-time high, yesterday, of $28. And again strong today, despite large market sell off. Keep buying on the 10-15% corrections and then consider selling around $30 sometime late this year or early in 2015. This one is really being played by the day traders, almost like clockwork. -Scott

  • Reply to

    public offering

    by tresjoli103 Sep 18, 2014 10:27 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Sep 23, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Does anyone know the exact per share price for the supplemental public offering? The news release just mentioned aggregate millions without breaking it down to per share prices. Thanks. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Be ready for a re-set to $23-$24

    by scottr2958 Sep 9, 2014 9:35 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Sep 15, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Just double checked the intra-day low prices for the past 5 months: In April it was $18.02; in May it was $19; in June it was $19.73; in July it was $19.70; and in August it was $19.73 (could be off by a few cents each month). This leads me to believe the current "correction" underway in pps could actually go as low as $20/$21.

    On the positive side, when the company showed a good report for the last quarter, on 7/29/14, the price spiked up nicely, around 8%. Also, we should not forget the SPO offered at $19.50 per share, which I think is the support for any price correction on the low side. ILet us hope for no damaging hurricanes in FL in the next couple of months, and for a good 3rd Q report. Then I think we will easily be back to the $25-27 range. -Scott.

  • Reply to

    Be ready for a re-set to $23-$24

    by scottr2958 Sep 9, 2014 9:35 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Sep 15, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Yup, is going to happen....maybe even dropping below $23 per share. At open on Monday, price is down another 2.3% to 23.23. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Be ready for a re-set to $23-$24

    by scottr2958 Sep 9, 2014 9:35 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Sep 12, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Yup...in the 5 days since I wrote this, we are now approaching $24. Could go below that next week, even quite a bit below that, if the normal patter holds. Price corrections of 8-20% occur almost every time a new high or near new high price is reached. -Scott

  • It happens almost every time the pps breaks out to new highs. It re-sets 8-20% lower in the next few days or weeks. So, let us wait for the inevitable drop back, probably into the range of $23-24. Take a look at the 6 month chart on this, and you will see what I mean. -Scott

  • In the past 6 months, the stock price has spiked up and down several times between 8-20%. Amazing.

    Just in the past 2 trading days, last Friday and today, Tuesday, the price has spiked up about 10%. 7.1% on Friday and this morning around 3%. This kind of action is very typical for FNHC. For example:
    -From a high of $26 in July 31, 2014, to a recent low of $20.80, that’s a 20% drop in pps.
    From late June high of $26 to a low on July 7 of $22.85, that’s a 12% drop in pps.
    From a May 21 high of $24.34 to a low on June 2 of $20.83, that’s a 14.4% drop in pps.
    From a high on April 22 of $20.74 to a low on May 1 of $19.05, that’s a 8% drop in pps.

    So, enjoy the spike up....but it probably will also spike down, and soon. -Scott

FNHC
24.87+0.06(+0.24%)11:39 AMEST

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