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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2016 5:31 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • In the past 9 months I have bought EVA around $18 and then at $22. I am very impressed with their plans for the future, particularly with contracts already signed. Going with "green energy" (regardless of one's personal opinions) is catching the public eye, in Europe especially. I only see more and more profits in the future for EVA. And with a large divvy on top of it! I don't see much downside at $23 and mostly see upside. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Rentech/Enviva.

    by michael446782 May 24, 2016 12:20 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 8, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    Just repeating yourself is not sufficient. Please give reasons why. As I stated before, Rentech shows no PPS increase over the years, nor is it becoming more profitable, nor does it pay a divvy. Good companies like EVA are in a different category, in my opinion. -Scott

  • scottr2958 by scottr2958 Jun 28, 2016 7:45 AM Flag

    Who could have predicted how the Brexit vote (evidently) has impacted EVA so strongly in the past 2 days? Even the professional bookies thought Brexit would go down to defeat. Now it seems like everyone and his cousin has opinions on the downfall of Great Britain as we know it. Personally I doubt it. But it might take a couple of years for the dust to settle. The big question for investors in EVA is whether or not they have the time and money to hang on and wait around. My rule of thumb is to sell when any stock drops 20% from my purchase price. My first shares in EVA were at 18, and later shares were at $22 and $23. I'm not yet at a 20% loss overall. I still believe mightily in this company. But EVA's recent contract to sell wood pellets to a large utility company in Britain makes many people very nervous. So do we do what Warren Buffet recommends, that is, "to buy when there is blood in the streets" or to sell? Just to remind everyone that the divvy yield on EVA is 9.1%, price-to-book, is a low 1.6, both trailing PE (18.3) and forward PE (11.2) are below average for Dow stock. This just might be a fantastic entry point. And, oh, Tuesday futures, before open, show the Dow up 176 points. It might end up being a good day today. Regardless, the longer term view is always, always, the better view. In 12 months EVA could easily be breaking above its recent highs of 23.50. -Scott

  • Reply to

    NCT earnings

    by stockguy555 May 12, 2016 10:06 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 23, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    I agree somewhat with casa, in that NCT currently is "talking" about plans, but until shovels are in the ground, and until new sports complexes are built, bigger profits are still a long ways away. But, with "stockguy" I am very happy with the divvy yield. And I think the PPS is showing a nice base. Thus, I think there is decreasing risk for NCT, and, in the next year, increasing reward. In my mind, that makes NCT at $4.50 a buy. Particularly in the more speculative portion of a well-diversified portfolio. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Rentech/Enviva.

    by michael446782 May 24, 2016 12:20 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 24, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    In what way are Rentech and Enviva a perfect match? With Rentech I see a company with lots of trouble in the past and with a stock price that has dropped and/or stayed flat for the past couple of years. Apart from dealing with wood pellets, I see no good reason why EVA would want to get involved with Rentech. Am I missing something? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Onward and upward to the target of $20 +

    by scottr2958 Jun 30, 2016 11:19 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 30, 2016 5:31 PM Flag

    Closed up on Thursday by 8% to a new all-time high! Wow! -Scott

  • Reply to

    Who thinks at the current stock price...

    by ashjames408 Jun 1, 2016 7:01 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 21, 2016 7:25 AM Flag

    I had held FNHC for about 10 years and was very patient from the days of $4-6 PPS. Sold some when it hit $30. But in the past 6 months I decided to exit. That could have been a mistake, since the valuations appear good. And I've always liked the experienced management, through thick and thin. But I could not let my money earn only 1% in dividend yield, when other, more stable stocks, with equally good management were giving me 5-8% in dividend yield. And with weather wonky all over the world, this could end up being a bad hurricane season, after 3-4 seasons of good seasons. Just wasn't worth the risk factors, to me. But to those who only buy on valuation, and are not wanting nice divvy yield, this seems to be as good as any. If you have the patience. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Opinions on First Q 2016?

    by scottr2958 May 3, 2016 5:43 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 4, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    At 12 noon, the PPS is up a whopping $2.50, 13% + And the volume is twice the normal, with only half the day behind us. Might hit four times normal volume by end of day. But the day traders seem to be quite active with FNHC, so beware of a potential significant decline from today's high. FNHC has always required patience. And it seems like we have to be patient for quite a while longer, to get back to $30. -Scott

  • Reply to

    A serious post, not spam

    by scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:06 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 27, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    On Friday, 4 days after I bought, company announces a huge SPO. In my calculation, it increases the outstanding shares by 15%. Will this prove to be dilutive? Is it really to "pay down debt" as the news story says...or will it help to pay the fairly high divvy? Again, let's try to get serious posters to this board, not spammers. -Scott

  • So what are your opinions on First Q 2016?

    Seems to me to be OK, though not quite as good as past quarters. According to their release,
    • 27.5% increase in gross written premiums to $136.0 million
    • 25.5% increase in total revenue to $69.0 million
    • 23.1% increase in Florida homeowners’ policies to approximately 253,000
    • 3.9% increase in book value per share, including noncontrolling interest, to $18.89

    According to those who regularly post, and my own calculations, here are the previous counts on policies.
    Total policy count:
    For 2011 was 49,000
    For 2012 was 67,000
    For 2013 was 134,000
    For 2014 was 182, 500
    For 2015 was 243,000

    Right now PPS is right at about current book value. Seems to be good value at this point. Fabulous, Hua (haven't heard from you lately), and biotechisfun, what do you think? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Who could predict it?

    by scottr2958 Jun 28, 2016 7:45 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 29, 2016 7:16 AM Flag

    Couldn't agree more, buyandwin! The only thing that gives me some hesitation about EVA is that it is a relative new-comer on the scene and most of their plans still await earnings. With more tried and true companies, buying more on these temporary downturns almost always turns out OK. But with newer companies, in my experience, sometimes the plans are too ambitious, or, turn out to take longer than expected. But overall I am still happy with EVA and am glad that I bought more even at $23. My shares bought at $18 are still giving me, overall, a gain. And the high divvy is paying me to be patient. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Up to where it was about a week ago...

    by scottr2958 Jun 6, 2016 5:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 16, 2016 4:07 PM Flag

    I could be wrong, who knows, but seems to be finding a base around $15. Having been in the market for decades, I don't worry about daily, weekly, or even monthly ups and downs unless they are 20% what I paid for a stock. This company has bought out many local staffing companies and valuations appear good. I could see myself picking up a few hundred more shares if it goes back down to the 414 mark. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Up to where it was about a week ago...

    by scottr2958 Jun 6, 2016 5:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 29, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    Great! Based on your short message on June 14, I thought you were being negative. Turns out you are not. Today, Wednesday, hit and closed at a new 52 week high, 17.49. -Scott

  • Reply to

    A serious post, not spam

    by scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:06 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 23, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Several positive points indicating good valuation, including trailing PE of 21, forward PE of 13, return on equity of 29%, year over year earnings growth of 400%, high insider ownership, and divvy yield of 6.2%. I can find only three negatives, and none of them seem horrible, including: divvy payout of 124% (but with such high return on equity, the divvy should be covered by end of year), only followed by one or two analysts (not necessarily a bad thing!), and the institutional holders seem to be mostly second and third tier, some of them unknown to me (perhaps are corporations of insiders). I think this is a good one! -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 2, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    Glad I bought more when the PPS sank 17% on the day of the SPO. Yesterday (Wed) was up 7.6% and the day before (Tues) was up around 4% from its low point of the day. Seems that the market likes when the management will be doing with the cash raised by the SPO. Meanwhile, just keep on collecting the 7% divy yield. And watch management increase that divy each year. -Scott

  • Reply to

    The morons at the top need to go now

    by chinookcook2000 May 26, 2016 2:53 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 30, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    Thanks diogenes... amazing how posters love to scream but are so uninformed. The question I would have for you is this: given that new management seemed to assure investors that the divvy was safe, and then turned around and cut them 100%, to 0, how trustworthy are they, going forward? To me, I think I would rather put my money in a 4-5% divvy yielding stock with managers who are careful not increase the divvy in lean times, than the new management of CLMT. By the way I have held CLMT on and off over the past 20 years. This time I got out before the blood bath. Thankfully. -Scott

  • BGSF is about up to where it was a week ago, before the SPO took some wind out of its sails. I was brave and bought more during the downturn. Now nicely up about 14% in 2 weeks. Plus a 6% divvy on top of it. Despite asking him, I haven't heard back from rbg who is either a short or a newbie in the market. -Scott

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high today!

    by icdcweb May 11, 2016 9:54 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 24, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Hi icdc...let's get this board going, with regular posters, not the spammers. Good price increase yesterday, Monday, and at open today, looks like another good day is coming. How long have you held EVA? I bought my first shares about 4 months ago and doubled my holdings two weeks ago. -Scott

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 May 29, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    Fair enough. May I ask how long you held shares in BGSF? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Up to where it was about a week ago...

    by scottr2958 Jun 6, 2016 5:12 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 29, 2016 6:38 AM Flag

    Sellplg: Let me ask you, today, Wednesday....what are you thinking now about BGSF, around $17?? I'm thinking this one could end up being a long-term holding, with a nice history of buying up other temporary agencies, located in a high-population area, and with good financials. In fact, I might buy more. -Scptt

FNHC
18.85-0.19(-1.00%)Jul 1 4:00 PMEDT