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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

scottr2958 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 12:41 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2012
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  • Previously I had commented that 2-3 times per year FNHC undergoes a 10% correction. Thinly traded, and making some very nice price increases in a short time, makes it a favorite with day traders and other market timer types. I wouldn't be surprised, after reaching new 5+-year highs recently that the pps drops to the $19 level. Only then, as in the past, to bounce upward, and even break through its old highs. I am now a committed longer term holder, and expect to see ranges in the $25+ level in the next 6-9 months. Thanks also to the encouragement received from the good posters on this board. -Scott

  • Nice run today, up 9% to $23.27. In fact, nice run over the past 2 weeks. Despite iklein's worries about a 1 day drop of .9% on May 9. Long term holders, things are definitely looking good for us. Today I dipped my toe into the water on UVE, another FL insurer. Nice divvy yield there and a very low divvy payout. I figure that the rising water around FL insurers, figuratively, will lift all companies doing insurance business. Besides, on this board I have read some good things about UVE, despite some questions about former execs of UVE. What do the rest of you think...UVE vs. FNHC? Might they both go up for the rest of the year? -Scott

  • Reply to

    Results for 1st qtr

    by pshore42 May 1, 2014 9:39 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 5, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    pshore, I agree with the vast majority of long time and well informed posters on this board that the pps of FNHC will indeed hold up, over the long haul. However, as I recently posted, there will be some sharp 10% corrections on the price along the way, maybe even some 15% corrections. We had a 10% correction recently with an intraday high of $21.16 on 4/22 to a close of a low at $19.05. A $2.11 "loss" per share if you bought at the high and sold at the low. Exactly 10% off its high. Over the past 1-2 years, 10-15% "corrections" in price have been quite common. Such a thinly traded company and small number of shares outstanding that day traders can easily manipulate the price. Especially after it breaks through to new highs.

    But the good news is for those of us who have held on for 5, 7, or more years, and even picked up more cheap shares along the way, things are only looking better and better long term. With the current new quarter underway, and reporting in about 3 months, I think the pps could be in the $23-25 range. But, as always, we can expect those corrections along the way. -Scott

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Whats up?

    by iklein.mein May 9, 2014 10:34 AM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 9, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    And where might you have been over the past couple of years on these boards? Don't know if we should take you seriously. The headlines on earnings for the past 5, 6 quarters have all been extremely good. Exceptionally good. And you call a daily drop of .9% as a bad day? Hmmm.

  • Reply to

    Monday up 9% 1 hr before close

    by scottr2958 May 19, 2014 3:43 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 May 20, 2014 8:12 AM Flag

    Agreed. I've been in and out of UVE twice, made nice returns both times. Now I'm in again and am patient to collect the divvy while I wait for a 10-20% return at some point by the end of the year. Might even pick up more shares if it drops to the $10 range. Rather than an "either-or" on FNHC and UVE, why not a "both-and"? For me, that's the way to go.

  • scottr2958 scottr2958 Jun 9, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Ballen, I agree with your comments, and maybe would even have made them a bit stronger. Look, even wealthy people, CEOs, etc. need to raise cash once and a while: a new home, a new car, some vacation expenses, etc. There are probably a dozen good reasons to sell a stock in which you have gained 200-500% over the past 5 years. Many of us who are not wealthy, but try investing smart, will even sell 50% of our holdings when a stock doubles in price. Thus giving us the remaining shares for free, essentially. Our downside is then fully protected. We also sell, from time to time, to rebalance our portfolios, making sure that no one holding is more than 5-7% of our total holdings. As you and s12 mention, one always has to consider how many shares an "insider" continues to hold, in comparison to how many shares he/she just sold. For those insiders who sold some, the percentage is very, very low. Absolutely nothing to worry about. If FNHC is going to earn $3 per share for the year going forward, we are still at a ridiculously low forward PE of just over 8. In this market, where most companies are at PEs of 17, 20, 24....well, a PE of 8 is very, very cheap. And in a growing area, in a growing sector, and, barring a disastrous hurricane season coming up, very high profit margins going forward. That's probably the biggest risk: the unknown upcoming hurricane season. How many seasons have had little or no insurance claims in Florida? Maybe 5 or 6. The odds are now against us, in terms of this coming season. So, there could be some correction on the price here, if some hurricane claims come in. But I would consider that a golden time to buy more shares. -Scott

  • Reply to

    Reinsurance contracts 2014-1015

    by ballen2123 Jul 6, 2014 9:08 PM
    scottr2958 scottr2958 Jul 9, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Thanks for your dialogue ballen and fabulous! I have benefited much from your thoughts on FNHC over the past couple of years. Like you fabulous, I bought quite a bit of FNHC when it was as low as $3 and also at $5 and $6 (while originally buying at $18 years ago and being very, very patient). So now I have a nice profit and sold some a while back.

    I think you both would agree that the main thing to wait for, at this point, is the next quarter results and the conference call. You also both would agree, I think, that the management has urged patience and that our patience as shareholders has been nicely rewarded in the long term. As they said it would be. So for me, it is mostly a matter of respecting those officers and senior managers that I am willing to keep holding. Also, if you look closely at the charts over the past 2-3 years, it is common to see a 10-20% correction in the price, especially when the price runs up too quickly in a few months. That, for me, is another reason to keep holding. Over the past 3 years, after a stock price correction, the price has always eventually continued higher, breaking into new highs. Always. I'm not a chartist, but this seems to be a regular, recurring pattern in the
    pricing of the stock. -Scott

  • Later today, Monday, we shall hear more details about the joint venture. What are your thoughts? What is compelling FNHC to take this step? -Scott

FNHC
23.30-0.02(-0.09%)10:18 AMEDT

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