Well, my prices may have been off, but I think my logic was smack dab on!
I still think there's also an acquisition coming as well, but that's a separate thought.
Any other thoughts? Given the language pointed out about how JP can engage in those 'limiting transactions', it's starting to make even more sense to me.
Please note... FULLY HYPOTHETICAL here, but in my mind it makes sense.
It's always been thought that shorts with significant backing seldom get hurt like in the example we saw with Volkswagen several years ago.
In this case, there was 30m shares short as of mid March... down from 35m at the end of January. If this offering is 20m shares, then it's legitimately possible that all 20m could end up as coverage for a biggie who realized their err.
But, let's think about that further, again hypothetically...
If their average price they shorted at was $5.50
Those 20m shares are short by $3 each if the offering is priced at $8.50... That's $60m 'lost' in addition to the cost of the new shares (20m x $8.50), $170m.
Add the $170m to the $60m 'cost of short' and we've got a new base investor with a cost basis of $230m for 20m shares.. or about $10.15 per share.
So, if my guessing makes any sense at all, then we'll see a few things in the next month or so...
1) A 'halving' of the short interest
2) A slow build back to $10
3) A future solid floor at just over $10 as we approach the release of various P2 studies throughout the year.
Guaranteed? Rez might say yes, but I'll never say anything is guaranteed... it's a biotech... competition is fierce and ruthless because in this world there are hundreds of billions in revenue at stake over the next 10 to 20 years...
But in this case, it seems like a legitimate opportunity... but that's just me.
Good luck all, whatever you choose and I'll look forward to any discussion on this thought.
From the prospectus...
"We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for the advancement of our lead vaccine candidates, including the preparation and potential initiation of Phase 3 clinical trials of our elderly RSV and maternal RSV programs, as well as our other clinical and pre-clinical research programs and general corporate purposes, including working capital, product development, manufacturing and process development expenditures and capital expenditures, as well as acquisitions and other strategic purposes. Pending the application of the net proceeds, we expect to invest the proceeds in investment-grade, interest-bearing instruments or other securities. "
My guts tell me that they didn't pick this number out of the air blindly... Yes, they are stockpiling for the future funding of trials, but I will not discount that they included "as well as acquisitions and other strategic purposes" in their language... Yes, it may be boiler plate, but let's remember...
They bought Isconova (Matrix M) for what, $30m? And how much value has that added to the company and platform?
My guess is we hear about some sort of acquisition in the next 1 to 2 months... probably in the 70-80m range... but I have no clue what/who.. Any ideas from anyone else?
As always, TOTAL guesswork on my part... but I added some shares at 8.88. and 8.63 this morning.
Good luck all... the curtain will come up soon and we'll know what's going on back stage.
That's the question... Do they REALLY have some sort of scheduling conflict that hampers their ability to release earnings? Or, is this a stall tactic for some reason we really don't know about yet?
I guess we have to take them at their word.... but it surely has me wondering whether I should add some or run away as fast as I can.
And they also don't hire people of that caliber (including Rosen) and at that level if they're in the middle of buyout talks, either...
... Honestly, I know all about it and the need for a vaccine from my due diligence in NVAX... but this weekend, my wife got a text from an employee with a newborn about 2 months old. Admitted to the hospital with unknown complications, but immediately into ICU. Turns out it's RSV and the baby will need to be in the hospital until it can breath functionally on it's own for 2 days without assistance and it is eating regularly again. I can only imagine the health care costs associated with this one child, but multiply it times hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands children per year and that's a true reality check.
In this regard, I could care less about the personal financial impact on my shares, but the potential of immunizing mothers so that the protection carries on to their children? That's worth it's weight in gold many times over.
Either that or, is it possible that there's something disjointed about the relationship that Erck just doesn't like or doesn't trust?
How much revenue does NVAX actually get from the relationship if they are successful?
Is there manufacturing process as directly mirrored off of NVAX GMP?
If it is accurate that Modi sold lots of shares in the past year, is there a strain there somewhere?
I have no clue, but I agree with Rez on this one.. If it was positive, strong, and on the edge of significant events, it seems odd that it isn't discussed or promoted as much.
In my opinion only, all questions worth wondering.. But that don't necessarily detract from the 'home' play here in the US.
Let's just hope that confidence and self-assuredness doesn't turn into cockiness and offend those he is negotiating with... Many a products have never made it past 'invention' phase because of bad chess playing skills
Pushing trials along does not seem to be something that gets accomplished with more money, rather trials simply take time. As learned in the pediatric trial, enrollment rates can be lower than desired and that was a lesson, IMHO, that simply needed to be learned and i am glad they learned it now.
To think that an ebola vaccine might only be worth 500m though seems very low... that would be 10 million doses at 50 per dose... seems low to me.. but no one really knows at this point.
Last year at this time they indicated they were embarking on what might be the busiest period ever for the company and they outlined all the trials on the agenda... This year, they laid out that they accomished exactly what they said they would with just a few speed bumps (pediatric RSV enrollment) and one new success of going from sequence to proven vaccine in 4 months and successful animal trials in a couple more months. That's 2 examples of sequence to vaccine to trial in about 6 months in the past 2 years (h7n9 and ebola).
H7n9 is now fast tracked by the FDA.
If that doesn't impress, I don't know what does.
I'm getting a nice pop on NRG this morning which has been a dog for a while. Now, I need to decide whether leaving it there is as much as it might be worth if I move the profits to NVAX...
Not a bad decision to have!
Voila... although I didn't anticipate JPMorgan finally getting off their behinds and putting out an upgrade to overweight and a price target change from 7 to 10...
Good luck all and if you're 'new' to the company, good luck and always do your research to reaffirm what you read here... but there's some really good stuff here, too.
first glimpse... $31.5m loss for Q4... Should still have in excess of $100m in cash and still little/no debt, but that may bring dilution to the table a little sooner than later unless they get some Gov. or NGO support for the Ebola work..
We may see $8.50 or 8.75 before the call gets started and Stan's confidence has a chance to reverse it....
so far, so good... tracking right in line with expectations... It will be interesting to see if there's any increased volume into the close or not.