In the world of 'all gaps fill', there is a small one of about 3 cents between Friday's close and yesterday's low... but it certainly isn't a massive one, so I'd discount the fact that it 'needs' to fill.
That being said though, the breakout above the recent 'double top' on the hourly chart of $8.20 on pretty significant volume definitely is an interesting development as well.
The next really meaningful bounce point I see on that chart seems to be around 10.75 with some minor bounce points at $8.75 and $9.40 if I look at the 5 minute chart.
Will be interesting to see how this develops today, that's for sure
In other words, up until now, Was he a willing participant in lending shares to shorts? I am so confused!
kind of sounds like a 'Do as I say, not as I do... At least not until I can make a boatload of money doing what I now say I won't do any more' set-up
Sorry... but it's a holiday week and we've only had 2.3m shares traded, which given a 30 day average of 6.5m shares is actually a bit slow given that it's already 1:30.
Last week showed up how the share price can be walked up by buyers and snapped back down by fewer sellers (or at least fewer shares being sold) and I would expect more of, if not twice the amount of that, on a holiday week where trading is typically below average.
Yes, the company has an incredible opportunity to be great and reward long term shareholders, but these short term machinations with below average volume just don't strike me as being representative of 'Big News Coming'
As always, time will tell...
Cnbc tweeted the following about 2 hours ago:
Pfizer, Allergan boards agree on merger worth $150B+, potentially the largest inversion ever, could be announced tomorrow -DJ • $PFE $AGN
twitter handle to look at is CNBCnow
NVAX's world of potential acquirers seems to be getting smaller
Might you be thinking about the use of the Polio virus to battle brain tumors at Duke University? I'm guessing there might be other examples, too, but there was a story on it by 60 minutes about a year ago. Pretty remarkable stuff!
There's a part of me that's reading this to think that the FDA may end up going down the path of letting currently licensed vaccines get in the game first, with simple 'follow-up' testing of the vaccines through maternal immunization, which gives a huge jump start to every other vaccine already in production.
Is anyone else getting that sense?
Regardless, there's no proven RSV vaccine yet, so with that being NVAX's 'golden egg' with no other candidate really within a year or two on the clinical timelines, I figured I'd throw that thought out there.
If you search for Drug Controller General of India, you can end up with this site where you can search for trial info at the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization. The weblinks is wwwDOTcdscoDOTnicDOTin
If you enter Cadila Pharma in the search box, the latest anything you come up with is related to the Rabies vaccine, a Phase I/II study in 2013.
There is NO result at all when you search for 'CPL' on the site.
Thus, unless there's another source, I am not putting a lot of stock in anything related to Cadila Pharmaceuticals
There was an issue that Cadila Pharma was struggling with in regards to impurities and odor complaints in 2014 that had them talking things out with the FDA. If you search for "Cadila Pharmaceuticals API plant slapped for faulty follow-up on stinking APIs" you should find that article at Fierce Vaccines. Whether that had anything at all to do with CPL Biologics is probably unlikely... but given the amount of selling that we believe Modi did over the past couple of years, my guts don't give any creedence to anything India related.
Just me, of course... my opinion... and if anything ever does come out of India, it'll be an unexpected surprise.
And even if 'to market' doesn't happen until late 17, early 18, with a $35m per quarter burn rate, they still have enough for that full extra year. Especially when you add in the additional tens of millions from the Gates Foundation and ongoing funding from BARDA.
Always good to bring the actual facts to the top of the board... Especially when it seems to imply a cushion of around $100 to $150m and no debt at the end of the Elderly phase 3 trial.
My opinion of course... Time will tell
You may think it is more likely to go to 14 than 0 over the next 12 months... the shorts may also agree, but they're simply betting that it will drop as low as 4 or 5 before it heads higher... at least that's my take on it.
Absolute BEST SUMMARY ever of how the entire sector was bought up the ladder and sold at the top by big money...
And now, they get to do it all over again!
What a market, heh!?
Haven't seen any.. but I honestly hope they don't... Because what I heard yesterday, though it bodes well for a successful phase 3 trial, tells me that they now have at least a 2 year runway before they have product-driven revenue.
Unless I missed it, they also provided no insight on any potential additional funding via any Governmental or Non-Governmental agencies.
Yes, the long term (investor rewarding) future may be positive, but the road to that reward will likely be portrayed as a longer one by analysts who will now be able to say that their price target for 1 year is lower than preveiously indicated.
Yeah, there could be some inference about being a potential buyout target, since they're now a Phase 3 company, but otherwise, I can't see much they would say that wouldn't give shorts a smile on their face at this time.
As always, my opinion... time will tell though!
Was reading through the transcript this morning and this quote from Greg Glenn jumped out at me, at the tail end of his discussion of the RSV Elderly trial...
"I would like to remind you that our current objective directly addresses the greatest economic burden of RSV Gs disease for RSV’s population which will appeal for the payer community."
Key words: 'will appeal for the payer community'
Now, flash back to June 18th of this year when NVAX released this Press Release: "Novavax, Inc (NVAX) Appoints Gail Boudreaux to Board"
Stan's key quote in that Press Release is as follows:
"We are delighted to welcome Gail to Novavax' Board," said Stanley C. Erck, President and CEO of Novavax. "Her outstanding leadership and business experience will be important to our continued growth and success. Gail's insight on health payors will be particularly important as we continue to move towards commercialization of our vaccines."
For those who have been around a while, this isn't a surprise... but for those who are new, this gives me further confidence that the road ahead is one that is well thought out and purposeful.
I will likely still activate my trading block when I see what appears to be momentum trading like yesterday, as I would love to accumulate a few more shares... However, I have a feeling that by late 2016 or early 2017, the company's share price will either be closer to $30 than $10 or it will no longer exist due to a buyout.
Good luck all.. As always, Time will tell
I was watching that drop as I typed.. Today was an obvious 'trade the momentum' day... It hit a low, the IBB caught a little lift round noon and some bios that had been down today got picked up. NVAX kept going when the index went sideways, so it was pretty obvious that whoever bought a few million from the low 7s on up would be taking profits as the close drew near.
Today was traders creating volatility... As I said earlier, though it's obvious, I stood my ground and watched... Always amazed at the lessons one can learn on this crazy market.
It's simply normal everyday behavior of a market where every stock is always influenced by different levels of buyers, sellers... traders, investors, and shorters... big money and retail investors.
Yeah, I'd love to be able to cry 'I'm a victim', but in reality, the market is what it is... if you know the trends, you either choose to participate or not. You either choose to play the trends/behavior to your advantage (trading) or you choose to buy and hold based on belief in what you own (investing)
Bottom line... make your choices and time will tell.
Never did activate my 20% 'trading block' the last few weeks... was very tempted and in hindsight I proved to myself that I can sense the market's movements and reactions... but I stayed pat and held.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.... but the company seems stronger than it was yesterday though, at least as a company that has a plan and is executing on it.
Yep... the wind blew it lots of directions today, but it surely took the 'body blows' like a champ, so we'll see what the future brings.
Time will tell!
To clarify.. I see the outside potential funding from BARDA, NGOs, WHO, etc... as being the bridge of funding while the Elderly RSV plays out... They're obviously not 'back burnering' things just to let Elderly get done... Although it did seem like Pentavalent got set back a bit... The good thing is there we're probably dealing with a range top that has at least 6 or 8 burners, so plenty of room on front burners!
See my post re: 271m in assets and more than enough for Phase 3 trial.
Yeah, if they get too many phase 3s going, it could get scarce... but the timing looks to me like they are spacing things out enough so that the plan is to get Elderly RSV licensed in time to fund all other trials (along with other potential funding via BARDA, NGO's, WHO, etc...
Obviously, now all plans come to fruition, but that's what it looks like to me... always subject to correction by more informed minds.