Last time we saw a big drop (MArch 14), the 20dma had been above the 50dma for quite a while but when it broke, it fell down to the 200dma within a few weeks....
This year, the sideways movement for a couple of weeks since the 20dma fell below the 50dma seems to be pretty supportive... but if it breaks down below 7.50, the current 200dma of 6.22 is probably in play at 6.22
Not happy about that as I didn't follow my gut to sell my trading shares at 8.80 a few days ago, but my guts tell me the Russel Rebalancing buying has probably already been pre-negotiated and the shares are probably either already traded or destined to close somewhere around 7.85 to 7.90...
The future will follow the market with any disparity from that trend coming due to news related to Ebola, partnerships and/or data release from ongoing trials.
As always, just my thoughts... 15 minutes left, but the IBB has surely popped and how low that goes will be anyone's guess as it's 200dma is another 10% below where it is now... And that would be a full 20% off the recent highs.
Good luck all!
Please excuse me while I bang my head on the wall in angst over not going with my gut this morning...
Longterm, we'll surely be fine I believe, but it just goes to show you that the more things change (the evolution of the company), the more things remain the same (predictable trading patterns).
I agree... I see the 20DMA at $8.30 and am extremely tempted to swing my trading position out at 8.85 and buy it back for 0.50 per share less in my move toward the most 'free shares' possible... but this trading this morning looks like it's more accumulation within a pretty tight range. Not sure why, but it sure looks like someone has decided for whatever reason they want in and however much they want, it seems like it's being made available for them to accumulate.
As always, just my observations, but I'm going to stand in place for now.
Good luck all... my guts tell me the next 15 to 30 days might get very interesting... just hoping it's on the positive side rather than the negative side and my odds for that are 5:1 toward the positive.
I was just thinking the same thing... going to be interesting what happens in the last 5 minutes today. My guts tell me we're going to see some sort of large stabilizing buy that will set the starting line for the next leg up. It may not cause a big uptick today, but it surely feels like someone's lacing up their running shoes to get into the race.
All questions that need to be asked and thought deeply about. also, in my opinion, validation for why NVAX may sign a partnership within a month or two of upcoming releases of phase 2 data later this year. Further, the lack of any posted positions that have anything to do with marketing distribution points to the likelihood that they truly are staying focused on what they do well... Development and manufacturing... While looking for the right partnerships to cover the marketing and distribution.
Big pharmacy may have taken an opinion that, 'we can deal with this little guy within our spheres of influence'... But now that another big pharma has joined the race deeper, their incentive to have a' first to market' product increases.
If you are buying guide pharma, do you want to lose to NVAX? Probably not, but you might also not take them seriously because they don't have the distribution in hand...
But, do you want to lose to AstraZeneca? Undoubtedly no.
Obviously, my opinions.. But I think the timetable and mutual incentive to a major partnership just got jacked up a bit for both nvax and a big pharma partner to be named later.
Ultimately, I believe institutions get 45 days from quarter end to report holdings.. So, as usual, whatever quantity of shares of the 24m that made it into institutional hands probably won't be fully known for about 5 or 6 weeks.
Toward that end, does someone have a record of the total # of shares held by institutions as of mid February? That would be the number I would want to compare to the total # of shares held when all the 13d's have been filed as of mid May. Will it be 24m higher? Time will tell.
And just to note... Given that gnca is still in trials, we really don't know how much future revenue we are sacrificing because we also don't know what price the market would bear for their product, and that's if it gets approved. So many unknowns, which can actually be used to justify either side of the argument
A) let's buy them now so we get ALL the revenue once they are approved (big risk), or
B) why sacrifice expense-minimal revenue from selling them matrix m by buying them and overpaying with the lost revenue added in.
Obviously decisions that people much smarter than I get to make and live with.
Well, wouldn't the expense be carried forward as a loss against future revenue to offset taxes until all their carry forwards are offset? Or am I understanding it wrong?
If nvax buys GNCA, they are sacrificing ongoing revenue from matrix m licensure for actual product sales revenue. To figure out how much sense this makes, we need more data on what kind of revenue we actually already get from GNCA and how long it would take to recoup the revenue we would basically be cannibalizing by buying them.
My sense is it might not make sense because you are not only paying a premium on the stock price, but you are also losing revenue and that 'lost revenue' from owning them would need to be added to the purchase price for the actual total purchase price... At least in my thinking.
So, this is a meeting with a competitor to JPM BEFORE the market opens next Wednesday... Wouldn't it be nice if NVAX releases some sort of positive news or updates and JPM investors are left without any more cheap shares to buy?
There was a story on 60 minutes about this, but as I watched the story, it's not a polio vaccine being used, it's the actual polio virus being injected into tumors. Studies are being done at Duke University. Look up 60 minutes for the story.. It's still early in that research, but it was quite interesting and very impressive.
Well, my prices may have been off, but I think my logic was smack dab on!
I still think there's also an acquisition coming as well, but that's a separate thought.
Any other thoughts? Given the language pointed out about how JP can engage in those 'limiting transactions', it's starting to make even more sense to me.
Please note... FULLY HYPOTHETICAL here, but in my mind it makes sense.
It's always been thought that shorts with significant backing seldom get hurt like in the example we saw with Volkswagen several years ago.
In this case, there was 30m shares short as of mid March... down from 35m at the end of January. If this offering is 20m shares, then it's legitimately possible that all 20m could end up as coverage for a biggie who realized their err.
But, let's think about that further, again hypothetically...
If their average price they shorted at was $5.50
Those 20m shares are short by $3 each if the offering is priced at $8.50... That's $60m 'lost' in addition to the cost of the new shares (20m x $8.50), $170m.
Add the $170m to the $60m 'cost of short' and we've got a new base investor with a cost basis of $230m for 20m shares.. or about $10.15 per share.
So, if my guessing makes any sense at all, then we'll see a few things in the next month or so...
1) A 'halving' of the short interest
2) A slow build back to $10
3) A future solid floor at just over $10 as we approach the release of various P2 studies throughout the year.
Guaranteed? Rez might say yes, but I'll never say anything is guaranteed... it's a biotech... competition is fierce and ruthless because in this world there are hundreds of billions in revenue at stake over the next 10 to 20 years...
But in this case, it seems like a legitimate opportunity... but that's just me.
Good luck all, whatever you choose and I'll look forward to any discussion on this thought.
From the prospectus...
"We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for the advancement of our lead vaccine candidates, including the preparation and potential initiation of Phase 3 clinical trials of our elderly RSV and maternal RSV programs, as well as our other clinical and pre-clinical research programs and general corporate purposes, including working capital, product development, manufacturing and process development expenditures and capital expenditures, as well as acquisitions and other strategic purposes. Pending the application of the net proceeds, we expect to invest the proceeds in investment-grade, interest-bearing instruments or other securities. "
My guts tell me that they didn't pick this number out of the air blindly... Yes, they are stockpiling for the future funding of trials, but I will not discount that they included "as well as acquisitions and other strategic purposes" in their language... Yes, it may be boiler plate, but let's remember...
They bought Isconova (Matrix M) for what, $30m? And how much value has that added to the company and platform?
My guess is we hear about some sort of acquisition in the next 1 to 2 months... probably in the 70-80m range... but I have no clue what/who.. Any ideas from anyone else?
As always, TOTAL guesswork on my part... but I added some shares at 8.88. and 8.63 this morning.
Good luck all... the curtain will come up soon and we'll know what's going on back stage.
That's the question... Do they REALLY have some sort of scheduling conflict that hampers their ability to release earnings? Or, is this a stall tactic for some reason we really don't know about yet?
I guess we have to take them at their word.... but it surely has me wondering whether I should add some or run away as fast as I can.
And they also don't hire people of that caliber (including Rosen) and at that level if they're in the middle of buyout talks, either...