Rez... it's way more discussion and sharing than bashing. If he was saying the stock stunk or that they had no future or that everything said on the call was BS... yeah, I could call that bashing... but giving a logical, thought out sense of his position and his planning?
Isn't that what DISCUSSION boards are all about?
No, humility has NEVER been one of your stronger suits... especially when someone's post doesn't fit with your thinking.
Jack, the one thing that keeps me on edge is that given the massive (my words) increase in volume and the relatively smaller increase in short interest, I wouldn't doubt that there are some institutions that are positioning themselves to be able to short later on. There's that whole 'fair and balanced' concept in the market coming into play again (tongue firmly in cheek).
With that many new shares in institutional hands in the past 6 months, that risk is definitely there for swift and violent movements that will force any potential rise to start over again from lower levels... and those are the 'tradable moments' that may look for.
Again... the complexion of the company is FAR different than it was in 2006... much larger pipeline and it's not moving on the 'bird flu hype' like it used to... as a matter of fact, that hasn't happened much lately at all. They also have Isconova and Matrix now for even more proven adjuvants.
The path is definitely long for any biotech to go from seed to glorious tree... My guts have me describing NVAX as a sapling right about now.
As I've always said, time will tell.
Some may remember me... I used to spend waaaaayyyyy too much time here, back when the $7 and $8s were within striking range in 2006... always appreciated the technology but wasn't smart enough to 'play the market' like I wish I could...
Never lost sight of NVAX and have bought and sold a few times in the past years, but have always thought, "If they get this VLP thing adopted, it could be very interesting"... Currently, I have a pretty small position but may add a bit to it. Mostly, I keep my eyes on interesting technologies and watch technicals to see if there might be anything of interest developing.
Here's what's interesting to me:
Monthly volume starting in April through December was 47m, 26m, 31m, 42m, 72m, 67m, 64m, 59m and 24m shares.... Keep in mind... that December 24m shares is in 3 trading days.
Compare those numbers for the short interest which at the end of April through October were 9.5m, 10.8m, 11.8m, 12.7m, 17.8m, 20.1m and 15.6m with the mid November short number at 16.4m (all from NASDAQ site)
They say price follows volume... and in this case, it's sure starting to look interesting... though given the length of time that the volume has been picking up (since May) and the fact that it's gone from the low $2s to the high $3s in that time, I wouldn't rule out some gain taking as we reach the new year... but yesterday's conference call obviously raised some eyebrows given the volume towards the end of the day.
My long term sentiment is a hold with a tendency to add more on pull backs that may come swift and with a quick rebound. Afterall, if I thought the market was 'fair and balanced' and that concepts like 'shaking the tree' weren't real, then I'd be a permanent resident of the magic kindgom.
Good luck all whatever you choose and have an incredible holiday season.
Humility never has been a strong suit of yours, has it Rez... Always one to accuse shorts of negative behavior but always gloating at the slightest uptrend. Just remember... There hasn't been an uptrendpharmacy that e last seven or eight years that hasn't given back most of the move
Fwiw, I have a small position built over the last few months but I won't be blind to opportunities to trade it on spikes. Technology may be coming to fruition, but the game is still overcrowded by big pharma
Low volume blocks for each step down the last half hour and some higher volume trades at each step down . Until the next low volume drop. Sure seems like they are shaking for stop losses to me and gobbling them up like thanksgiving leftovers.
From the filing after hours that lays out all the changes:
"If approved at the Annual Meeting, we intend to change the name of our Company to "Rock Creek Pharmaceuticals, Inc." and will also change the name of our subsidiary that currently operates under that name."
They really are going for a total clean break from anything historical.
If I'm reading it right, Mullan and Chapman also get nice $2.5m bonuses upon any change in control of the company...
VERY interesting indeed...
My interpretation is that Johnnie basically has all the shares he's ever going to need to be a very wealthy man if/when the company gets Anatabine through the FDA gauntlet as a prescription medication, so why not just step aside now and let the people who will be better at those tasks attempt to get those things done.
The PR sounds like someone who feels like they're being bullied and who further feels that the appropriate response is to say, "You have to do this because they're not being fair!"... well, that's exactly what it seemed to say as I read it. Obviously, there is some problem with how the company is 'playing politics' with all those potentially impacted in whatever way they feel they will be impacted. Maybe the company peeved some key FN decision maker sometime in some perceived sleight... who really knows... but obviously the decision making process is slanted against TGB at this time and new leadership may make better negotiators.... just my perception of course.
seems to have close the gap between Monday's close and Tuesday's open... Very healthy... but there is also one gap between last Thursday's close and Friday's open that I have my eye on. (looks like $6.10 to $6.27)
Reading the recent release about how this is just a step in the process, I got the sense that Russ was trying to downplay any heightened expectations of the report, either positive or negative... Kind of like a, "Hey, whatever the report says, it really doesn't indicate what's going to happen"
Of course, if it's got some negative sentiment to it, then the high $1s could be the base for a while...
just my thoughts of course... it's been a while, but the run yesterday caught my attention.
Sorry Naka... I trade only with a cash account and have no desire to ever engage the world of margin or trading on credit in a market where the terms 'fair and balanced' are meant more for Grimm's Fairy Tales than a trading guide book.
One thing I have learned in the trading game is whenever either side of passionate posters (long or short) starts talking about sure squeezes or definite demise, it's usually stuff to ignore. On the other hand, when an article like the alpha one yesterday comes out, I try and filter out the emotion and pull a dragnet mindset.. Just the facts. In that regard, Santos is right... Taken at numbers only, the picture deserves to be questioned if we could get a picture of quantity of bottles sold versus revenue, that would help to understand how the change from 200 to 300 really did impact the size of the user base and whether there is a trend to increase of users who are rebuking on a regular basis. In the absence of that data, we do have flat revenue, but If that is the only variable someone considers in investing, then pharmacy probably isn't the right sector for them... I did sell about 1/3 of my position yesterday above 2.40 and will look to buy back below 2.30.. In this case, nickels and dimes add up to 4 to 6% and that's better than a savings account in a bank! Still taking my Anatabloc though
... from the upcoming 83rd annual meeting of the American Thyroid Association that starts on the 16th. I've scoured the meeting program/agenda and there's not a single reference to Anatabine, hashimoto, or Ladenson anywhere on the entire document.
My guts tell me that, if indeed the findings are as impressive and ground shattering as longs seem to be hoping, that big pharma may have found a way to keep a lid on them.... and that would be a shame... but only time will tell what the real picture really is... we'll see... still taking my Anatabloc though.
Alright CigX67... I'm anticipating releases as much as anyone, but you're referring to Ladenson having remarks "in Monday's release"
Can you please respond with whether you're talking about some historical press release on some monday in the past or are you hypothesizing about a release you believe will come on Monday...
Thanks for the clarification
Per their latest filing, they had just under 153m shares outstanding
They have a total net of 31.9m added today (27.7m plus the 4.2m bonus)... that's just over a 20% increase in total shares outstanding
If you look at $3.14 as a 20% discount to real value for a total of 185m shares, you get a share price of just over $3.92
Seems like that would be the next price target, no?
Mansman... didn't realize you got it this morning... you must have seen it on CNBC the same time I did. Definitely interesting stuff.
CNBC highlighted the vaccine facet this morning... here's the quote from the article that mentions them:
“Millions of children die each year or suffer from debilitating conditions because the right treatment does not exist for them,” said Jamie Cooper-Hohn, Chair of the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF). “Relatively little investment goes to the development of new drugs, vaccines and diagnostics specifically targeted at children in developing countries where child mortality is most dire. CIFF is very pleased to be a major investor into the Global Health Investment Fund, which promises to deliver new finance and focus to this neglected area.”
Can't post links due to Yahoo, but if you do the search I mention above, it's high up in the results
Saw it this morning when I turned on CNBC and found the article by searching "Gates foundation, jp morgan, vaccine"
Begin cut/paste from Business Wire
A new investment fund structured by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will, for the first time, allow individual and institutional investors the opportunity to finance late-stage global health technologies that have the potential to save millions of lives in low-income countries
End cut/paste from business wire
Makes you wonder if there's a connection with the pricing of the shares this morning.... definitely makes you go 'hmmmm....'