Rez, you state in your opening:
Even day traders of Novavax shares will trade with only a percentage of their holdings, keeping a core (often half) intact.
My guess is that this is where the 'loads of guesses...' starts.
Where's your data that substantiates this claim? How many day traders have you surveyed to identify exactly what portion of their daily portfolios are traded vs kept?
Sure would be nice to get a close over $5.60 or 5.65...
Long term, it's all positive, just would like to get some short term signal reinforcement to go with the actual developing fundamentals.
Time will tell... good luck all!
It's just enough background to be able to hang up a shingle and call yourself an analyst so that you can put out a headline... What a market, heh!?
... after 10 years
"As VP Quality Operations at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Biologicals, he provided oversight of the North American and German Vaccine Manufacturing Operations for over 10 years and most recently transitioned to Head Quality Advocacy Liaison."
I like the fact that someone who was with GSK for 10 years saw Novavax as a great opportunity to continue his career.
Haven't watched the board much lately, but the trading action seems to have calmed down to a defined range of late... In my opinion that's all good, potential base building... but one really never knows in this crazy market.
Time will tell... good luck all!
Got bored and surfed around CliniclTrials-dot-gov
Found this study posted in October 2015 being done out of the University of Oxford
Safety and Immunogenicity of a Protein Particle Malaria Vaccine Candidate, R21, Administered With and Without Matrix-M1 in Healthy UK Volunteers
Only a Phase 1, but always interesting where Matrix M pops up... even if it is only in a phase 1 study with 24 participants
That seems to be an offshoot of another Oxford study completed in early 2015 titled:
Safety and Immunogenicity of ChAd63 ME-TRAP / MVA ME-TRAP Heterologous Prime Boost Malaria Vaccination Adjuvanted With Matrix M™
JnJ bought Vaccine maker Crucell for $2.4b in 2010. Do a search for "Johnson & Johnson buying vaccine maker Crucell" to find details.
Crucell entered into a licensing deal with Iscanova AB in 2011 to license their adjuvant, Matrix M. Search for "Isconova Enters into Adjuvant License Agreement with Crucell N.V." for details
Novava bought Iscanova for $30m in 2013 and thus is now the owner of Matrix M Search for "Novavax Announces Public Offer for All Outstanding Shares of Isconova" for details
They certainly know who each other is!
Of course, they gave $.08 cents back in the next 10 minutes with 500k of those shares.
Trading Games.... kind of like Reindeer Games with Rudolph and Santa's crew, but with real money on Wall St.
What a system, heh!
We're just along for the ride and my seatbelt is on.
Duhh on me... Headline should read:
2015 was quite a year... can 2016 top it?
Thinking ahead too far before a cup of coffee...
I remember one of Stan's appearances on Cramer last year... mind you, I'm not a Cramer fan about 80% of the time because I'm not a fan of the sensationalism, but I do believe he has approached NVAX with a demeanor of calmness that I haven't seen with many companies.
Anyway, in that appearance sometime last year he indicated in his interview with Stan Erck (NVAX CEO), something to the effect, "Stan's not a promotional guy... but he follows through on the things that he says are going to happen..."
Well, 2016 was quite a year for laying the groundwork for the next chapter in the company's history... and it will be very interesting to see how the year wrapped up and how much detail is laid out for 2017... because after all, a non-promotional CEO who has simply built a company that delivers on the plans he outlines can't be a bad thing, right?
For what it's worth, I hated the most recent bond deal... then as I read more and looked at how it truly does position the company to be able to go to production and full blown commercialization, I am better with it.
Time will tell... and as I click 'post', it's about 83 minutes until the call starts.
Good luck all... and as great as you feel, don't ever put so much into anything that you end up regretting your decisions.
There's nothing muddy about that post... Well outlined.
Have a great weekend all... As always, time will tell where it's going and how quickly it gets there.
That was quite an attempt to push it down.. they can still do it with relatively minimal shares as there were only 400k shares traded in the 15 minutes when it dropped it from 5.00 to 4.84
Just imagine what would happen whenever any news might be released and there's suddenly demand for 4m of 5m shares to be bought.
Time will tell
Didn't realize we were arguing Wily... you're the one with your pants in a tizzy over what I'm writing.
As for my use of my trading block (long ago acknowledged as it was falling through the high single digits), my last sells were in October and December of 2015 ($7s and $8s) and my last purchases were all in the last 5 weeks between $4.35 and $5.50.
With the seeming change in market sentiment on BioTech, I've comfortably ended up adding shares and lowering my cost basis... and my sentiment is now confidently 'hold'.
Good luck all... time will tell, but I think it's on our side as longs.
Never shorted a single share of anything... though I do trade leveraged ETFs... never had a margin account, don't plan on opening one anytime soon and I've accumulated more shares at this point than I've ever had, so I'm good right now.
Reality is that yes, I see the text... but the market psychologistpessimist in me has to control my urges to get too far ahead in my own mind. It just allows me to be less 'hopeful' and more excited when it goes crazy on the upside.
Should get more formal written updates from Citi, JPM, and I would think a few others, too...
Sure seems like this is one piece of the market telling us that they've decided to loosen the noose on biotech... at least until they decide there's a reason to tighten it back up again.
What a market, heh!?
I read it differently than Rez... which is fine... For Piper to come out and say, "our target is $15 by the end of this year" just seems a bit absurd to me. Doesn't mean I'm right... just means I read it differently and assume far more corruption in the system.
SHOULD it be more than $15 by 2023? If they do launch RSV by 2018 at the latest and aren't, then something went very bad.
So, if their price target of $15 is based on 2023 share count, let's divide it back at 10% per year...
Feb '23: $15
Feb '22: $13.63
Feb '21: $12.39
Feb '20: $11.27
Feb '19: $10.25
Feb '18: $9.31
Feb '17: $8.46
Feb '16: $7.69
If you use a 12% annual growth from now, you get:
$15, $13.39 (22), $11.95 (21), $10.67 (20), $9.53 (19), $8.51 (18), $7.59 (17), $6.78 (16)
I know this is overly simplistic in how we get to that number, but it sure makes it pretty obvious how/why we actually get back to $15 if it was planned out this way.
Very interesting on this one...
Amount Beneficially Owned: 40,445,649
Percent of Class: 14.987%
Number of shares as to which such person has:
ole power to vote or to direct the vote:
shared power to vote or to direct the vote: 0
sole power to dispose or to direct the
disposition of: 40,445,649
shared power to dispose or to direct the
disposition of: 0
40.5m shares in a fund, able to be disposed of at any time, but only able to vote on 291k of them.
What a market, heh?
Conference call may be later than normal, but companies have until 60 days after the end of the year to file annual reports... as opposed to quarterlies, where they only have 45 days.
Yesterday, TRowe Price... 8.4% of shares owned
Today, Vanguard... 6.7%
As we get to 45 days after the end of the prior period when the filings have to be made (may actually be 60 days for end of year, but I think that only applies to company annual reports as opposed to quarterly reports), it will be very interesting to see how many others increased their positions and how many reach a point where they need to file because they're over 5%
Bottom line... If you own shares, you're in pretty big company.
Time will tell