Pushing trials along does not seem to be something that gets accomplished with more money, rather trials simply take time. As learned in the pediatric trial, enrollment rates can be lower than desired and that was a lesson, IMHO, that simply needed to be learned and i am glad they learned it now.
To think that an ebola vaccine might only be worth 500m though seems very low... that would be 10 million doses at 50 per dose... seems low to me.. but no one really knows at this point.
Last year at this time they indicated they were embarking on what might be the busiest period ever for the company and they outlined all the trials on the agenda... This year, they laid out that they accomished exactly what they said they would with just a few speed bumps (pediatric RSV enrollment) and one new success of going from sequence to proven vaccine in 4 months and successful animal trials in a couple more months. That's 2 examples of sequence to vaccine to trial in about 6 months in the past 2 years (h7n9 and ebola).
H7n9 is now fast tracked by the FDA.
If that doesn't impress, I don't know what does.
I'm getting a nice pop on NRG this morning which has been a dog for a while. Now, I need to decide whether leaving it there is as much as it might be worth if I move the profits to NVAX...
Not a bad decision to have!
Voila... although I didn't anticipate JPMorgan finally getting off their behinds and putting out an upgrade to overweight and a price target change from 7 to 10...
Good luck all and if you're 'new' to the company, good luck and always do your research to reaffirm what you read here... but there's some really good stuff here, too.
first glimpse... $31.5m loss for Q4... Should still have in excess of $100m in cash and still little/no debt, but that may bring dilution to the table a little sooner than later unless they get some Gov. or NGO support for the Ebola work..
We may see $8.50 or 8.75 before the call gets started and Stan's confidence has a chance to reverse it....
so far, so good... tracking right in line with expectations... It will be interesting to see if there's any increased volume into the close or not.
Honestly, I think the most potentially 'divulging' part of the call will be the Q&A... I'll be interested to see the following:
1) The questions posed by historic followers
2) The number of 'new' analysts looking to ask questions
3) Whether any new questioners ask specific questions challenging Stan to directly compare NVAX to Big Pharma and how he sees the future of vaccines as it relates to NVAX's direction versus big pharma's direction.
Ultimately, that could be the most educational part of the call to listen to. Could also be a bit entertaining because with any new group of questioners, you're bound to get questions that true longs will think, 'did they seriously just ask that!? haven't they done any research?'
Time to get back to work and leave the trading screen alone.
Cheers all and have a great day doing whatever it is you do for a living.
Based on having watched this company for years and seeing how the current management approaches things, here is my guess on how today plays out...
1) No pre-market news to speak of
2) A repeat of yesterday's early market actions, though maybe not as steep, with a progression back to close to flat for the day
3) A 'typical' conference call reporting status on all projects and projected timelines for upcoming releases of RSV and Ebola with target dates dictated by 'quarters' that releases are anticipated in
4) Reinforcement of 'cash strong' company and focused movement forward to continue to prove efficacy of products and platform
5) Some discussion of 'a great deal of interest continuing from Government and NGO entities to solve pandemic needs (not just ebola)
6) Ongoing confidence in the product, the pipeline, and their ongoing financial position.
7) Typical post-earnings action with sideways, maybe even a little backward movement, in the first couple days and then gradual continued upward progression as more potential big buyers research and begin/add to positions.
Ultimately, there could be a drop with no news, especially if no sense of external funding on the Ebola trials. However, with a company like Russo involved, that tells me that they recognize that based on recent events (Ebola, Cramer interviews, etc...) that they realize they will have a much larger audience for this call than they ever have.
I think of today's call as basically a 'coming out party' to put the management of the company and it's full year results as well as future strategy on display for a much more global audience.
I like Stan and his quiet confidence should be perfect for this event....
Of course, I won't be disappointed if I'm wrong and there is news today... but I'm not banking on it.
As always... my opinion only and no guarantees of anything other than the market will most likely surprise us doing exactly the opposite of what we think it should do
Good luck all
Zinc, some would say that the MSM is more kind to liberal leanings than to conservative ones... But regardless, they will report what they can sensationalize the most.
Leog, if that's the case, then we would see several more in close succession because it wouldn't apply to only 1 director... I'm counting against that one, but it is interesting to see that he chose various ones throughout his tenure. All in all, he has over 105,000 shares, so he's sitting on about a million dollars right now.
Form 4 for Michael McManus Jr (Director)
If I'm reading it right, he exercised options to buy 45,000 shares (3x 15,000 lots) at prices of 1.48, 2.61, and 2.35... they're obviously pretty old as the 'date exercisable' was in 2005, 2008, and 2010 respectively.
If someone else is reading it differently, please feel free to correct.
If the conference call is on Thursday afternoon (4:30, correct?), I would guess that IF... keyword IF... there is news it will most likely come out Thursday morning or maybe even Thursday afternoon as the call is happening.
just my guts... regardless, the longer we go without any news towards Thursday, the more likely it is that we will see wild swings during the day as various holders position themselves as they want to be positioned..
And for the record, yes I recognize that there could also be discussions that are significantly more positive than what anyone could be thinking that could be even greater support for a higher price...
As I said... these next few days are surely going to be interesting.
Wow, how times have changed since it was less than half that...
With just over 1m shares in the first half hour of trading, it's even more remarkable that the buying interest continues to come into the company, even though in the first few minutes there seemed to be a little selling.
So, the question is, whatever is to be discussed on Thursday, will there be anything new that will validate the recent run up, will it be bigger or smaller than 'desired' by the new position acquirers between $6 and $9, and will it be a 'sell the news' kind of a situation...
One things for sure... these next few days are going to be interesting to watch!
Good luck all!
For those who are new to NVAX and think it's Ebola and RSV because you haven't heard of this MERS thing, here's a snippet from an article last August at StreetInsider, you can find a press release at the Novavax website where the first paragraph is the following:
Title: New Experimental Vaccine Produces Immune Response Against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
"BALTIMORE and GAITHERSBURG, Md., April 30, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The University of Maryland School of Medicine (UM SOM) and Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) today announced that an investigational vaccine candidate developed by Novavax against the recently emerged Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) blocked infection in laboratory studies. UM SOM and Novavax also reported that a vaccine candidate against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) developed by Novavax on a similar platform also inhibited virus infection. Researchers reported these findings in an article published in the April 13, 2014 issue of Vaccine1."
In my opinion, just another example of the 'power of the platform' that Novavax has developed...
Always do your research...
Timeline for venture capital / private equity is typically 2 to 4 years that they want to be 'out'...
Not sure what the average timeline for Blackrock holdings of this size are..
I wouldn't be surprised if it was similiar... after all, as big of a stake as it is, it's a pretty small portion of their overall holdings... but they don't look for small gains either..
Rez, you've waited, valiantly if I may say, this long to 'be right' on the stock.. do you really need to keep making these absurd 'could' predictions? You obviously make them so you can always say, "I didn't say it WILL come, i said it COULD come.
Just sit back and relax...