Becton, Dickinson and Company Message Board

So what do you think of LLTC's big day, and did
you go short today, or will wait it out a little to
go short? Just interested in how others play the
stock. It's volatility certainly lends itself to playing
it short, and long term it is definitely one of the
best semi companies. But you can also get squeased by
the volatility.

sdroid

First of all they'll never go near "somewhere $10
-- $15". They have $12/share cash. Who would sell
their shares below the value that the company has in
cash reserves?

Are you a complete moron? If
you're short, and hoping LSCC will go down so you can
benefit, babbling on and on with statements like "LSCC is
a slow slow company!!!!!!!!! " is not going to make
anybody jump ship. So spare us your drivel!

1 contract is for 100 shares. So 1/2 per contract
= $50/contract. 1,000 contracts x $50 = $50k. So
whoever bought these contracts is either buying himself
some insurance to cover his long position (doubtful),
or is confident the price will be below $7 by this
Friday (expiration date). Then he'll sell his options
back for 3/4, 1, or whatever. Get it?

at 1/2 per contract. Somebody's betting $50k on a bad earnings report. That doesn't make me feel real good about my long position. Hope they're wrong.

sdroid

3 months ago you're touting XLNX like it's the
greatest stock out there to own. They miss their estimates
and you get burned (a lot of us did), then you start
bad mouthing the co. We'll they came down to 30
today, so I guess you're a genius. What's that? The
whole market got socked. Hmm, maybe you were right for
the wrong reasons. Well in any case, I'm sure you're
making money because you must have shorted or bought
puts when XLNX was 40 a week and a half ago,
right?

Just don't come on the board saying I told you so
unless you put your money where your mouth is. If you
made some money betting they'd go down good for you,
otherwise I'd rather not hear your junk.

sdroid

I was wondering about those xlnx shares you
bought. You're not being greedy asking for $2.50 for your
xlnx and $5 for the altr are you? I can't see them
hitting that in the next two weeks, but I guess it
doesn't hurt to fish another day or so. If you don't get
them Monday, I would lower my expectations if I were
you. But then who am I to give advice. I sold Aug40
xlnx calls a week and a half ago for $1.50. I was
happy at the time thinking xlnx and all semi's would
continue to flounder for another month or two. Well I
guess we'll find out next week whether the bump up in
semi stocks can be sustained or if it is just a flash
in the pan like mid July.

Good
luck

sdroid

" Besides, many individuals (myself included)
routinely buy hundreds of options contracts at a time on a
whim. "

I buy options too (5 to 10 at a time),
but not hundreds on a whim. I've lost enough on
options when I thought I knew what I was doing to not
stop buying on whims. I agree that it is probably some
money manager trying to capitalize, however $662,000 is
a lot of money to take a chance on when it expires
in 2 weeks. The put volume was not a bunch of little
guys, it was two 1,000 contract trades.

I still
think whoever dumps that kind of money into two option
trades must be doing more than
speculating.

sdroid

You can read up on calls and puts and option strategies at www.cboe.com.

sdroid

I don't like reading all gama's negative posts
either, but as far as techs moving up short term (even
cream of the crop techs like MXIM & LLTC) and staying
there, I think I have to agree with him.

I just
checked out the cboe and saw a disproportionate amount of
puts bought vs calls. Check this out:

1) 300
Sep30's @ 1 1/16 ($31,800) at 10:34am 8/6
2) 1,000
Aug35's @ 1 5/8 ($162,500) at 11:09am 8/6
3) 1,000
Aug40's @ 5 ($500,000) at 11:10am 8/6

I would
assume #2 and #3 were bought by the same party/MM. That
just seems like a lot of change to plunk down on
options if you're not confident in the direction of the
stock. I'm certainly no expert in interpreting what
those trades mean, or what the buyers and sellers of
those trades are thinking. My guess/opinion from seeing
big option blocks like that in the past is this: The
buyer is very confident that the price is going down
before the expiration date and will sell the options
after the price has headed south.

I'm thinking
of purchasing some puts myself, but am a little cash
strapped. Anyway, I currently have no long or short
position in MXIM, but would like to get some other
opinions/interpretations on those option trades above. What is your guys
take on them?

sdroid

your return is -50%.

"... I firmly believe that those of us who hang
on and ride out this storm will be well rewarded in
due time."

I sold 2/3 of my holdings in this
dog a month ago, I'd be more than happy to get out my
remaining shares where I bought (20 1/4). I'll be getting a
margin call if this dead fish sinks
anymore.

sdroid

Ok Mr. Smart guy

Yeah I've got some Aug
calls that I bought before the report that I surely
will lose money on, and your statement that puts could
be used to leverage or hedge against a report that
was less than stellar is not unreasonable at all. In
fact I was considering just playing the volatility
(buying puts and calls).

The reason it burns me is
not because I guessed wrong. The reason it burns me
is because it is obvoius to me in hindsight that
someone found out about the report hours before it was
released. The timing of the puts bought (1-2 pm, i.e. hours
before the release of the report) and the block size (no
equivalent size of calls bought to counter those puts), and
how far out of the money they were, tell me that
someone knew the content of the report. If the person was
just hedging, why didn't they buy those puts a few
days earlier when the stock was at 74-76. They'd have
been a lot cheaper. Answer: they didn't know at that
point. If you can't see that after I've spelled it out
for you than give me a break.

If you bought
some puts because in your analysis you saw it coming,
good for you.

sdroid

eom

sdroid

Checking out the puts yesterday. When I saw a
block of 100 Aug60 and 50 Aug65 puts bought in early
afternoon at the same time @ when stock was still up around
68, I should have taken that as a signal. Who in
their right mind is going to buy 100 puts 8 out of the
money hours before earnings release w/o inside
info.

It really burns me!

" LLTC will beat the estimates by 2 cents. Ans
they will announce stock split. "

Based on
ADI's warning today, how can you make this statement.
And as far as the split goes, I believe I've read
before that they wouldn't do that before their fall
board meetings. I own calls on LLTC and would love to
see them beat estimates by 2 cents, but do you know
something, or just cheerleading?

sdroid

" Last earnings the stock ran up 1 point the
first day and then 7 the next day. So, it was a total
of 8 points over two days."

Last earnings
came out after the close on 4/14, they beat estimates
by 1 penny (.59 vs .58) and the stock
soared.
4/14 closed @ 63 15/16
4/15 up 10
4/16 dn
1
4/17 dn 11/16
4/20 up 3 1/2
4/21 up
11/16
continued to climb following 2 wks until it leveled out at
80 and change.

As for "two weeks from now it
should be between 81 and 85", I would agree with you if
they meet or exceed earnings, but unless you're an
insider or somehow know the earnings, there is no way to
justify that statement. I hope you're right, because I
own some Aug calls, but with ADI's announcement
today, I'm not feeling real confident about meeting or
beating .62. The run up over the last week was clearly in
anticipation of good earnings, but it seems the sentiment has
become less sure.

I like these guys long and
would not worry about the peaks and dips too much if I
was holding them (though I don't own any yet), but
short term, all I can say is it's probably going to be
volatile, and could go either way depending on Wed
earnings.

sdroid

Remember Intel missed and look what happened the
next day, SOX jumped 7%. And if you want to compare
programmable logic companies, look at LSCC. They originally
had est of .58. Ok they warned and got slammed (6/11)
price 35 down to 26. Then their estimate gets refigured
to .40 just days before they announce, and they come
in at .41 and now they are over 36. Their revenue
was down 22% and earnings down 30%. (Of course I did
the logical thing and bought puts on them - losing
venture). So who knows, maybe XLNX goes up
tommorrow.

I know, I tend to want to be logical too, but
nothing makes much sense when trying to predict stock
movements anymore.

sdroid