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semihound 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2014 6:42 PM Member since: May 4, 2012
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  • semihound semihound Aug 28, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    Please Phil, reread your friends message. "100% impartial and free from bias" is a bit of an overstatement. He clearly falls in the camp of physicians who hate drug companies and swear by the latest medical buzz phrase "evidenced based medicine". You are entitled to your views but please have the intellectual honesty to acknowledge that his statements clearly display a bias against the clinical validity of drug company sponsored studies.

    And if you think that evidence based med is the new holy grail just sit through one of the drug reviews conducted under this discipline. They are nothing more than a cost analysis that attempts to use clinical data to justify the substitution of a less expensive drug to treat a given condition. They utilize any and all data regardless of its source and reliability IF it fits their theory that it's "just as good" as the newer more expensive treatment. It is a medical cost containment strategy and it frequently has very negative outcomes. Here in Oregon, concerned about the cost of the pain killer oxycontin they conduct an evidence review and determined that methadone was just as good and about 90% cheaper than oxycontin. Due to the odd properties of Methadone (slow onset, long half life) the switch created an epidemic of fatal overdoses. They finally repealed their substitution and went back to oxycontin. It took more than fifty deaths to get them to do it, but they did.

    So there is no perfect solution to evaluating some drugs for efficacy. But at least we should all be honest about the bias we bring to the endeavor.

  • semihound semihound Aug 28, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I know something about Doctors and how they comport themselves professionally when it comes to expressing qualified or "expert" opinions. While some of your nephro friend's opinions may have some merit they are overshadowed by his thinly veiled disgust and mistrust of all drug companies. A healthy skepticism is certainly needed in many cases, however, making statements that seem to imply that all docs immediately reject the data and that academics would "scoff" at the study and toss it in the trash can, is an unsupported and unsupportable statement. Did all doctors disregard out of hand the data that Pfizer presented when they introduced Lipitor. I think not. In fact those studies didn't have definitive end points yet presented such compelling prospects for improved treatment of heart disease that the drug was adopted by most physicians. There are hundred of other examples similar to this, too many to mention in the scope of this post,.

    Vit D and PTH problems are actually quite common. I am told by my clinician that people with stage III disease experience these type of complications about 30 to 40 percent of the time. The rate is much higher, at least double, in stage IV patients.

    So I would take the doctors comments with a grain of salt. Doc's have all kind of conflicts and issues with drug companies and the therapies they suggest. It comes from, in most cases, super inflated ego's and a deep conviction that "I'm the doctor and I'm right". And I can tell you from four decades of personal experience, that is not always the case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A personal anecdote regarding OPK and Rayaldee: A couple months ago I was trying to factor insider buying more prominently into my stock analysis. I over heard someone briefly mention OPK and their Chairman's unusual pattern of open market stock purchases. I put it on my watch list almost as an after thought. As I continued my research about the company, I could scarcely believe what I was reading.

    I have Stage IV CKD. The last blood work I had done showed my PTH level at 500. The top end of the "normal" range is 50. I just took my daily dose of Calcitrol a couple of hours ago, it's 500 mg per day with an Rx Vitamin D supplement (50,000 units) every other day. Despite this aggressive regimen my critical levels are almost always dangerously out of balance. The consequence of this is, as the medical literature says, "a significant co-morbidity to the underlying CKD".

    If I can get Rayaldee relatively soon, it will most likely add years to my life. So, given how this stock and the multiple positive financial and personal promise it holds just sort of fell out of the sky into my lap, it does have a feeling of providential direction. Perhaps it is my own personal bias. I hope my hunch works out for all my fellow longs.

    I enjoy many of the thoughtful comments on this board and it stays constructive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • semihound by semihound Aug 18, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    A couple of years ago I saw an obscure promotional clip from one of the studios shot in the early 1930's featuring Groucho talking about one of their upcoming films and clowning around the studio lot. At one point talking about what movies the studio thought were going to be big that year, Groucho launched into a brief tirade on Goldman Sachs. Comparing the reliability of the studio predictions to GS stock recommendations and closing by saying that they were all crooks. He evidently lost a substantial sum in the 29 crash and never trusted the market again.

    As far as the GS call goes on NXPI, I'm with Groucho.

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