Without spilling the beans, allow me to make some very general observations to stimulate the mind and debate:
To the educated eye, this quarter appears worse than the last one.
Gary Linoff doesn't seem to see the obvious.
$10m in "earned" operating cash flow, Gary? Is that what you see?
20% shareholder dilution in just 2 quarters.
CFO gets amnesia once more when asked about last Q.
Huge foreign currency gains?
$4 million per quarter expected to come in from stock options for the rest of the year?
Sugarr, your Grandma's CDs are beating Avid's real return hands down, for now and the foreseeable future - IMO.
How can a CEO live with a financial guru who 4 weeks after the end of a quarter, still doesn't know what Operating Cash Flow is?
The answer: Both the CEO and CFO had amnesia or both were issuing a smoke & mirrors 4th Q presentation designed to mislead investors into believing results were better than they really were.
They should both be fired. They won't mind, they just cashed in millions of dollars worth of stock options and are now multi-millionaires. And they did it all without ever beating Sugarr's grandma's Bank CDs!
The future looks even dimmer.
How do people con so many into paying so much for nothing?
PT Barnum was right too, not just Darwin.
Libel? To be guilty of libel, you must same something that isn't true. What have you read from Sugarr that you say is untrue?
It's ironic that a confirmed insider trader, like yourself, would be issuing warnings about being a lying cheat.
Ssugarr has nothing to fear. You should be the one going into hiding.
For the record,
I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING SUGARR AND FICA HAVE SAID ABOUT THE 4TH Q AND MANAGEMENT.
I'm surprised that no one has bothered to comment on my post discussing the disgraceful 4th Quarter results that were masked to look wonderful.
There is little doubt that management and analysts during the conference call were purposely ignoring the big issues and pretending Avid's results were "blow out" good. Either this, or the analysts are idiots - actually, we really can't rule this possibility out.
Since the reason for the cash increase was spelled out and the massive related increase in stockholder's equity noted in the press release, management can claim full disclosure.
Unfortunately for the retail investor, proving you are stupid is not a valid argument when you sue to get your hard earned money back.
It doesn't matter. The institutions will push it up no matter what's said here. They aren't through. Just continue shorting, little by little. Eventually, the floor will come out.
What's said on this board really means nothing, remember that. The professional short sites will target Avid in due time. This pump & dump scheme can't go on forever. Management's rush to exercise before Jan 1st, even though they'd have to pay taxes, immediately, is a clear sign they are selling fast and that the scheme is coming to an end.
And you people were wondering why forensic auditors has Avid in their cross hairs?
Remember, there's a lot more you can determine from the CC and press release than I mentioned. It's all bad.
I'm short and happy to wait for the ax to fall.
Nice job managment getting this stock to $24 not too long ago. Great job keeping it in the low 20s while you sell.
Happy option profits for all!
I'm short and here's why.
The reason money is flowing out of Avid and the reason the smart money is shorting is simple. Avid had one of the worst quarters in the company's history.
Just pay attention to DTV's posts. He's a company paid shill and mentioned that it would be dumb for managment to exercise options before year end - as it triggers a taxable event. What a laugh! Management exercised as many options as humanly possible, just before year end, right under DTV's nose (is DTV lying?).
Sugarr might be right, and dtv is just an idiot, but who knows?
The cash increase for the quarter is 100% option exercises - the whole $11 million! Management states this clearly in the CC, albeit in a quick introductory sentence, designed for all to miss. I wonder why?
Furthermore, top line sales growth year to year is negative by 4%.
The 4th Q's eps is the result of applying a 6.7% income tax rate for the quarter, while the 2001 YTD avg rate is over 35%! This fudge factor alone, if corrected, would drop GAAP Eps to just 10 cents per share - look it up.
Then, the CFO is asked what "operating cash flow" was for the quarter and gets a convenient case of amnesia. He claims he doesn't know as he didn't bring that schedule. Sure. The amnesia is the direct result of operating flow being ZERO or NEGATIVE. That is, the company's earnings are NON CASH mumbo-jumbo.
Even the corner grocer knows his cash flow, so the CFO is either lying or incompetent.
We all know the answer. As I write, management their shills (eg. Ingrassia from Roth Capital) are pumping out press releases as they sell as fast as they can.
1st Q 2003 will have dilution that will kill even the dumbest long.
How'd I do Sugarr?
Hope you're fully short.
This is not all, just the tip of the iceberg.
This company is a smoke and mirrors, pump & dump scheme. Just check out the numbers.
There's a reason it has a cumulative net loss since its inception in excess of $250 million! Imagine owning this entire company and be sitting on this kind of career performance.
Imagine, management cashing in options and making millions selling them in the 20s. Why did everyone say this was a blow out quarter given the above, easy to substantiate, facts?
Because the institutions and management are fleecing the public (thank you Sugarr).
I can answer your question, Sugarr, as I have read all posts. The peanut gallery has gone on record, over and over, that you shorted the day you first appeared on this board. Your appearance date is the time, the fact that you were anti-Avid the reason, nothing else.
I don't agree with you that the SEC will get involved here as Avid management has made reference to all the "bombs" you refer to either in writing or verbally (albeit, in positive terms; using upbeat tones). Their references were short and sweet, but there. No one during the conference call touched on any of them, but that's not management's fault. In fact, analysts have no duty to explore the important issues if they choose not to. Based on history, they're probably working together anyway.
Basically, all the pertinent information is availble for all to see. The mere fact that you need to be educated to "see" does not make your failure to see management's responsibility.
Management is in the clear.
Analysts are in the clear.
You are absolutely right about one thing though. Darwin did notice this. However, he never said God approved. Nature can be cruel. Survival depends on it, but outright greed has nothing to do with survival. Tricking people into losing their money is not Darwinian, it's morally wrong; legally right.
Based on pro-forma earnings, I can see $28.00 per share in the near future. Off the top of my head: was pro-forma 28 cents? If so, this times a 25 multiple times 4 quarters (to annualize results) comes to $28.
Remember, 25 times 4 times $0.28 is $1.12 (higher than 59 cents projection) but what the wild & crazy money might focus on.
Avid might even overshoot $28.
Then 1st Q comes in.
Everything gets confirmed to those who studied Avid's numbers,
Reality sets in. Some win; some lose.
It's the American way.
Lord help those who can't think for themselves.
The shorts are all very quiet, with the exception of Sugarr, who can't seem to keep his mouth shut.
When the shorts, all of a sudden, get quiet there are only two possible reasons:
1. They were shocked by good numbers and are searching for an quiet exit.
2. They are convinced the company is a pump & dump scheme and are quieting adding to their positions before alerting the masses.
After Avid's press release and conference call, the verdict is in.
Lord help those who can't think for themselves.
To all those who wish to ignore the past:
From what I gather, Sugarr, is asking a question about the future. He wants to know what eps Avid "will" deliver.
Of course he's asking for a number instead of talk, which I guess is the real reason for the non-answers posted thus far.
I like your comments as they are factual. Your temperment is, no doubt, a function of having to defend yourself from a multitude of angry longs for months now who, it seems to me, have very little financial acumen.
Immature or not, your posts are genuinely relevant and contain information all investors should consider carefully before buying avid.
For what it's worth, Sugarr, I welcome your comments.
PS. I think a number of these long posters are the same individual.
4th Q numbers will be audited, unlike Qs 1,2, and 3.
Audited financials tend to correct errors and/or ommissions from first 9 months.
I don't know what to think but yesterday's action was powerful and too close to eps announcement to ignore.
My money stays in my pocket until after earnings are released and I have time to digest them thoroughly.
Avid's traded over 2 million shares today. I can't remember it ever trading this many before. The most has been in the 1 million neighborhood, right? Anyone know?
I didn't trust JPM when they issued a neutral weight and don't trust them now with their upgrade.
I think it's wise to be in cash until earnings are announced.
I'm looking to take a long-term position, either long or short. Frankly, it could go either way at this point.
Undecided as of today.
Avid never explained the details of its recent acquisition, a material event, but seems to issue press release after press release concerning every pencil it sells.
Over the past decade, firms doing this kind of selective self promotion have often been in trouble.
Now I'm not saying Avid's in trouble, but I don't understand why it is constantly issuing press releases that focus on trivia and completely ignore important events - like its recent purchase.
I'd still like to know what financial impact this acquisition will have.
I just checked in and OBV is crashing while the stock price continues to inch up from 21.79
This is fun to watch.
Who's betting on another last minute rally to close up? I am. It certainly makes for a rosey chart and momentum players place lots of weight on these end-of-the-day figures.
Intra-day is painting a completely different picture. Massive selling at the bid.
It's very interesting to watch this unfold. No wonder these investment houses are being sued for billions. This kind of manipulation should be illegal. Why isn't it? Anyone know the law for sure?