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senior6analyst 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 11:13 AM Member since: Dec 18, 2006
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  • Using discounted cash flow analysis of earnings with its cash added back in, AMAT's current intrinsic value is over $24. And, it pays a decent dividend. This "boring" stock has many fundamentals in its favor and the market will spike over $20 as soon as it recognizes its strategic initiatives and the fact that chip makers will need to buy the new generation of equipment this year. Goldman Sachs is ahead of the game on AMAT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If I don't make a profit on this stock, I am done

    by rxc99sc Jun 30, 2015 9:52 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 30, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    On a DCF earnings valuation, AMAT's stock should be at $24+ now. That is merely an intrinsic valuation calculation of DCF with the cash of $2 added in. And, it pays a decent dividend. There is no reason for AMAT to be down close to $19 particularly, given some of its strategy initiatives, the next generation of equipment that the chip makers need very soon, and insightful analyses by the likes of Goldman Sachs. This tortoise may be boring, but it will win the race and shoot over $20 as soon as the market sees the evidence. Hold in there; fundamentals will prevail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout

    by seemorgood Jun 26, 2015 11:41 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 27, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    Another stem cell or ophthalmology company could buy STEM at $0.80 per share for about $60 million, net of the secondary proceeds, Q2 loss, and cash on hand. On the other hand, an acquirer could end up with STEM and about $30 million if the bought them with stock. Hence they would acquire intellectual assets a several clinical studies in various stages of clinicals with over a year's money to fund them, not to mention the expense synergies of cutting administrative overlap and facilities.

    I think the market overreacted on Friday and would like to see a review of the biostatistics of their own analysis and the outside firm. Perhaps STEM was reporting absolute results whereas the outside firm was measuring significance relative to endpoint objectives? Anyone see the stats and analyses?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy all pullbacks

    by kirkydu Jun 25, 2015 11:47 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 26, 2015 12:24 AM Flag

    It is interesting how much time is spent on postings without any constructive input, analysis or comment. Your message is such a posting. Actually, if you followed my posts these past several years, since I first started accumulating large positions in EXAS beginning at $7, I have sold on surges seventeen times and re-bought on consolidations. I have never shorted EXAS. Go back and audit my postings. Adding up the profits has yielded the equivalent of $38 on my original, large position. I am a fundamental, value oriented, contrary investor. Q2 will have a large loss of nearly $40 million IMHO and the growth rate of sales will not justify over $28 per share for now. However, eventually, despite the passive marketing, high expenses, and complicated process, I still believe EXAS and CG will be a good investment over the next six years. IMO,you should try contributing some value on the message board rather than shallow, sarcastic, insidious diatribes.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy all pullbacks

    by kirkydu Jun 25, 2015 11:47 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 25, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I agree with you and am a long-term bull on CG/EXAS, but their CG test projections show sequential growth of 21,000 CG tests for Q2 and 32,000 tests for Q3!? That is sequential quarterly growth of 91% followed by 52%. At that rate EXAS may not reach a $1 billion annual revenue run-rate until the beginning of 2018. My estimates project near a $40MM loss for Q2 as they ramp up. That seems to imply their stock is worth $25-$28 today and that they will have about a year of cash in the till (another secondary issue of stock?). We may see a pull back into the mid-$20s with the Q2 results. I sold the last of my latest holdings two days ago.

    I believe EXAS needs to market directly at colonoscopies and gastros while simplifying the request process. EXAS seems to think this is salesman driven, without any doc rewards. There needs to be more pull and push. Their website, which a EXAS employee agreed with me, assumes the patient is very intelligent, able to navigate, and/or knowledgeable about the CG ordering process.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 17, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Wouldn't that mean you are "under water" now. Leading up to the EXAS Investor conference, I suspect you will lose some money. With your financial expertise, didn't you anticipate a run up in the stock?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 12, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Alaska Airlines up 3% in downdraft market! Despite your insidious comments, it appears that fundamental analysis, research, and and hard work win out over your "enjoyment" trading. The market is down big time today, however, ALK is up significantly by nearly 2 points (3%)! My DCF analysis says the intrinsic value for ALK should be nearly $80 right now if you do not allow day trading miscues for Delta, capacity emotions, or the price of oil cloud your perspective. ALK is highly oversold. This is going to be a great summer for ALK and they are quite adept at hedging out into the future for oil prices. Hope you are enjoying your losses and my delight. LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Won't become commonplace in clinics

    by pcjtx Jun 11, 2015 8:29 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 11, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Interesting that you talk stock action rather than responding to my message. "You doth protest too much...." Typical market action; after a tremendous run up, OCUL consolidated back 50%, based in low $20s, and is showing evidence of re-assuming an upward trend. Strange that you threw out double talk whereas a number of credible biotech funds are large shareholders? Also, a number of experienced biotech analysts all have targets over $40. I still have questions on your posting and credentials? Let's just see what happens over the next two weeks? OCUL has several products in clinical progress ranging from Phase I to phase III. The CEO of OCUL is a genius with an extremely strong track record of patents and successful launching and sales of biotech firms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 11, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    It's people like you that detract from the use of message boards to share constructive information. Do you have nothing better to occupy your time?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Won't become commonplace in clinics

    by pcjtx Jun 11, 2015 8:29 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 11, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    That's rather strange; two well known ophthamologists in different states with large clinics that we know say just the opposite. I will ask them to review your comment to see if you are correct or just trying to fraudulently bash a stock?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 10, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    I suggest you do your homework by projecting OCUL's markets, market shares, and revenues, and discounting back a range of profits using a risk adjusted discount rate (DCF). My DCF simulation analyses indicate that OCUL's intrinsic stock price valuation today should be around $50. So, the earlier run up into the $40s was rather justified and fact based. The projection and discounting analysis requires considerable research and work, but it enables people like me to make multiples of returns off of shallow day traders (like you?) and shorting hedge funds that try to deflate a basket of promising biotechs generally, with 80% success.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 10, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    You appear ignorant on hi tech centers and areas that software engineers prefer to live. Ever hear about Beaverton or Intel? Also, when PNW and west coast passengers fly (Seattle, Portland, Alaska, Spokane, Eugene, SF, LA), they prefer to fly Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines will continue to grow profitably and pivot off of their hub and spoke strategy with superior customer service.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ALK buyout

    by rgyinjapan May 29, 2015 8:51 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 9, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    That would be far better for Delta Airlines than trying to compete with Alaska Airline's phenomenal hub & spokes in the western United States pivoting off of the PNW. They are highly regarded by PNW customers, and Delta's service, performance, prices, operational costs and aircraft condition are among the worst. These prices are a gift right now for Alaska's stock. A DCF earnings analysis for ALK's intrinsic stock price today is nearly $80. Hence, ALK is at a 25% discount to a DCF valuation because of an over reaction to airlines' responses to a market expected to significantly grow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jefferies Presentation - Thursday

    by sailingaway82 Jun 2, 2015 11:40 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 3, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    You might think about all the progress that EXAS and Cologuard have made in that year's time....! The next run may well be for $40.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Jun 3, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Don't let the bashers baffle you with arguments of infinite ability to short (theoretically possible). Once the biotech short hedge funds conclude that Cologuard's success is fait accompli, there will be virtually no shares available to cover short positions; resulting in a major short squeeze. It is merely a matter of time with increased CRC screening (now that it is easy and reliable), growth in Cologuard's sales, and increased EXAS revenue (plus clinical progress on other gastroenterology cancers). That is why EXAS' stock price is progressing consistently towards an intrinsic DCF value of $40 that it should be at today ($100 in several years). the sharper hedgies are already covering....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Delta Expansion Is Ramping Up......

    by brainboy262 May 26, 2015 3:14 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    You evidently have never analyzed the strength and loyalty of Alaska's hub and spoke approach.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Form 8-K for STEMCELLS INC - OUCH!!!!

    by leo_lion_raors May 25, 2015 9:03 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    This is just the short-termers climbing out without a quick profit. I have helped start and fund many small biomedical companies and am quite comfortable with STEM. Once the stock gets through the churn I see many reasons for upside to $2 per share. I suggest you do your homework on their market, technology and clinicals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Form 8-K for STEMCELLS INC - OUCH!!!!

    by leo_lion_raors May 25, 2015 9:03 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Care to share your analysis wisdom? I see STEM as a strong Buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Eventually the market will figure out

    by coopersita May 26, 2015 10:15 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Not to mention that the Pacific Northwest and Alaska will be a big destination attraction this summer. Next quarter will be gang busters. This stock is worth $80 today with my DCF intrinsic valuation models.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Form 8-K for STEMCELLS INC - OUCH!!!!

    by leo_lion_raors May 25, 2015 9:03 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    I think you are focused on the wrong issue in effort to bash the stock down. The price will be taken care of. Look at the progress on their clinicals, their technology, the management team, over a year of cash, exercising of options by Directors & Officers, the size of their opportunity, and upcoming conference presentation. I perceive your posting as normal short bashing that small hedge firms pursue on emerging biotechs. I am buying in the current price range and suspect you will be sorry for shorting STEM. My projections justify a stock price of $1.50-$2.00 today. The underwriter(s) would not have done the deal if the stock price was an issue. Also, note some respectable funds own and are buying into STEM.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy