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Flow International Corporation Message Board

senior6analyst 108 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 11:15 AM Member since: Dec 18, 2006
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  • Jarvis' comment says it all. Cologuard used broadly and early will virtually eliminate colon cancer. TY for the post remcia.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    The intrinsic DCF value today for EXAS is $50. In a few years the stock price will be over $100 with over $1 billion revenues. By 2020, I project $10 billion of revenues and EPS of $20+. Apply your own P/E multiple.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WSJ: FDA & Saving Lives!

    by senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 9:33 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    Your self-serving pursuit has turned your eyesight vision upside down. It is about saving lives and nothing but! thousands of them a year. you do not know what you are talking about IMO. Look at today's WSJ editorial(9/28/14) on same. I invest in what I research, analyze, and believe. You bet on what you think you can get others to do out of fear, disingenuous statements, and nonfactual based lack of analysis. Please short as many shares of EXAS as you can and let's revisit this subject just weeks or months from now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    The middle editorial in today's Wall Street Journal (9/28/2014) on page A12 is a must read on The FDA, Roche's $8.3 billion acquisition of InterMune, and the importance of saving lives. Make sure you read the last sentence in the editorial! This sentence alone reinforces why all of the regulatory agencies and healthcare insurance companies want/need Cologuard on the market as soon as possible. I stand behind my modeled projections of over $10 billion for EXAS by 2020.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    Even though I agree, I believe the chances of EXAS going higher is even greater. CMS is imminent, Conroy will be talking about the rate and the launch of Cologuard at the Baird Health Care Conference in one week, and the articles on what Cologuard will accomplish against CRC will begin to arrive, not to mention revenues from the first lab. This will be a $50 stock. basic analysis bears it out. The analysts will move their targets into the $30 range. Let these "tungs" say what they want under duplicate #$%$. They are already over $10 in the hole. Also, acquirers will begin to investigate EXAS with FDA approval and CMS a fait accompli.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    What a great opportunity during EXAS' consolidation today. It provided me with an opportunity to load up on 2015 option calls for EXAS at prices I did not expect..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Aug 28, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Looks like a normal consolidation pattern with the day traders going on before EXAS resumes its assent towards a proper valuation of $50+. I relooked at the annual revenue potential for Cologuard and the EXAS BOD; I still believe that Abbott, Roche, or a dozen other qualified purchasers may swoop in and grab EXAS at about $35 before the end of the year. If EXAS' management continue to tilt-up EXAS extraordinarily well, I am a believer that EXAS's stock will probably be over $100 in several years as the Cologuard tests for people over 40 years old will come rolling in. There are really no operational, IP, or financial hurdles left to be overcome. Ultimately, Colguard will be an automatic go-to diagnostic test for Internists, GPs, and Gastroenrerologists thanks to its efficacy and support from Medicare. Be patient longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    The only fault I think I have found with CYNO is that I think their top executives are paid too much for the size of the firm and relative to a peer group. If the salaries and bonuses were more in line, it might add $0.06+ to EPS. Hopefully, some activist shareholders will bring this topic to the fore and/or recognize that EPS can be improved noticeably with new board members and more active expense controls.

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    I would read the article, "EXAS-Misunderstood & Undervalued" by Harvey Gillis on SA. It projects out a range of revenues and discounted profits. Most of the analysts have provided conservative, beatable SWAG estimates and targets, as usual. No one appears to have constructed a serious spreadsheet model on different CMS rates, # of labs, # of tests/year, revenue projections and income. As I have stated in detail, I believe Cologuard will be a blockbuster for people over forty years old and Medicare, resulting in revenues of over $10 billion a year for EXAS in 5-10 years. I stll believe that the stock is worth $50+ now.

  • Reply to

    Important pricing question

    by mundeleinmike2 Aug 27, 2014 3:44 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    You can estimate the break-even from their quarterly reports and comments on COGS, operating expenses, royalties, and tilt-up expenses. Conservatively, I would estimate the annual revenues needed for break-even to be approximately $125 million at $500 CMS, $135 million at $400 CMS, and $155 million at $300 million. Run the numbers and you begin to see why the stock should be over $50 now.

  • Reply to

    Bamm Bamm Bammm!! Right back down to 21.80 -lol

    by umcletizz Aug 27, 2014 1:45 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    I would speculate that he is busy with his margin calls.

  • By the way, this translates to ~$42 per share for the EXAS stock price. Just look at typical valuations for emerging, disruptive diagnostics like Cologuard. The price Roche just paid ($8.3 billion) for less revenue potential than EXAS was incredible.

  • Reply to

    CMS comments

    by sstephanc Aug 27, 2014 12:40 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    The limited negatives appear to be by academics defending their previous turf or sponsers. They make no sense given the benefits that are had.

  • Reply to

    Colon Cancer Alliance Cologuard FAQ

    by chuckles_head Aug 27, 2014 11:32 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 27, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    I think you are worrying about the wrong issue. In my biostatistics and analytic days, we loved a correlation sensitivity of 92%! CRCs are slow, and with early Cologuards two tests in two years will raise the predictive sensitivity to 99%. Cologuard is going to be a blockbuster anywhere in the $300-$500 price range. I cannot imagine anyone unwilling to spend $133 on average per year to avoid colon cancer especially, now that Obama is paying for everyone that cannot afford medical care or just irresponsibly skipped it. Medicare and Medicaid already know they are going to love Cologuard.

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 26, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    I guess people over 40 would rather just die from CRC then get a simple, reasonably priced test every three years. Based on history, you are observing what people did regarding an invasive, risky, inconvenient, expensive, time consuming, sickening test. Your name is well chosen............. Over the next two years watch how many millions of Americans use Cologuard through their Internist, GP, or gastroenterologist. And, over the next five years watch how deaths from CRC plummet and Medicare saves billionsof dollars. Nice try.

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 26, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    Blood tests do not tell you anything, and when they do it is too late. Otherwise we would not have 100,000 people dying annually from CRC and all of the surgeries, hospital stays and cemos for CRC that cost Medicare $14 billion a year. Blood tests are almost analogous to knowing someone is dying because they cease breathing............................ BLOOD TESTS: Cheaper, yes. Smart no. Effective, a proven no. Stupid, yes. Your efforts to bash EXAS with this obtuse argument, absurd.

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Aug 26, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    It seems the market is pricing EXAS for a $300 rate? If so, the only surprise will be upside surge for $500. I still agree with the better informed posters on CMS; the rate should be a cross-walked $500, cheap for every three years. Blood tests will become less effective as Cologuard will prevent late cancer stages that shed blood. My wife and I are scheduling Cologuard tests for November. I had a parent with colon cancer that survived by having surgery to remove a large section of the colon. I hate colonoscopies, worry about intestine punctures with colonoscopies, and feel that blood tests for CRC are uselss until it is too late. Given all of the information on CRC, Colguard, EXAS, FDA/Medicare paralleled approvals, panel review, and Medicare CRC annual costs, I think people shorting EXAS at anything below $45 are shallow idiots IMHO!

  • In addition toWilliam Blair and Canaccord Genuity reasserting their Outperform ratings, Canaccord's well known analyst is expecting the CMS rate this week. I was expecting it next week.

  • Reply to

    Cologuard and FDA

    by catalystforfreedom Aug 25, 2014 11:46 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 26, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    You have to be kidding. This is a huge leap forward for society. The FNR for a single pap smear swab has been 30%; for two different swipes, 10%. Biostatistics for sequential tests results in miniscule FNRs and FPRs. Give it up; Colguard is going to virtually eliminate CRC deaths regardless the dangling, inconsequential questions you naysayers try to hang out in left field.

  • Reply to

    Why General Doctors will love EXAS

    by fivepayne Aug 25, 2014 2:26 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 25, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    You are hitting a key note. Conroy knows the Internists and GPs will now be the "primary" prescribers for CRC screening with the advent of Cologuard. The gastros and surgical centers will lose net business to the primary docs that EXAS' marketing program will be aimed at. The volumes of Cologuard sign-ups through the Internists and GPs will blow your mind. William Blair's 2018 revenue estimate is off by 5:1. Just one lab a year until 2018 will generate over $2 billionof revenue a year. Two labs a year -- $5 billion/year revenue.

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