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senior6analyst 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 13, 2015 4:24 PM Member since: Dec 18, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Great Earnings & Cash Flow Results by AMAT

    by senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 4:11 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Notice, no gap down. Cash rich and conservative on projections while launching a whole new generation of equipment for the industry. Yo day traders had already baked in bad news which did not happen. Miss on revenue was 2%, but cash flow and earnings were strong and on the mark. They probably kept some sales in bookings given their advice. You are looking at this company in a review mirror as if it is a semiconductor company. Do your homework and some real business analysis of AMAT. This stock is a great, low-risk, dividend stock with a 35% upside over the next 6-12 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This management team, AMAT, and its technologies are first class. When some of the traders wake up AMAT will be $20-$25 per share. They are right to buy their undervalued stock while they are generating so much free cash flow. With its undervaluation (30%), net cash, cash flow and dividends, AMAT is a screaming buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Netting out cash per share means that AMAT's P/E on expected EPS are at a P/E of less than 11.5x. My DCF cash earnings models estimate AMAT's intrinsic valuation for today at $23 per share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The market cap seems rich

    by mabelleray Aug 13, 2015 11:50 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I would like to point out that your numbers are wrong and misleading. The market cap is about $20 billion, but the annual sales are close to $10 billion! Your $50 million number is absurd IMO and unfair. With the pull back from $25 to $17, AMAT's P/S is only 2x.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The market cap seems rich

    by mabelleray Aug 13, 2015 11:50 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    I disagree; the market has already fallen too far on AMAT by trading off of the semiconductors. It has anticipated worst case results. A ranged set of models using DCF earnings and cash analysis demonstrates that AMAT's stock price should be ~$23. I also suspect that AMAT may suprise people with orders for next generation equipment over the next six months

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EXAS Technically Speaking

    by sailingaway82 Aug 13, 2015 1:40 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Aug 13, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    I agree with your technical thesis, and would also argue that the last two months confirm measurable short covering and the following two articles demonstrate with fundamental ranging models that EXAS should be over $30, http://seekingalpha.com/article/3430416-exact-sciences-a-case-for-the-losing-matador and http://seekingalpha.com/article/2240953-exact-sciences-misunderstood-and-undervalued. The market will respond with continued progress for Cologuard and more head-on marketing against colonoscopies once a grade is in later this year. I also suspect that as the Wisconsin Governor's election approaches, EXAS will be more receptive to an acquisition near $35. I have a rebuilt another large long position again over the past month for reasons stated above.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The traders that have driven AMAT down do not realize two fundamental factors: 1) A DCF earnings analysis with cash is over $23 for AMAT, and 2) the new equipment cycle for next generation chips is just beginning which will require considerable investments in AMAT's next generation of products for new semi cycles. Additional considerations are the quality of the management, technology and strategies at AMAT. AMAT has bottomed out and in a few months I believe that the fundamentals will take its stock back over $20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Using DCF earnings analysis , my models currently estimate FSS' stock's intrinsic valuation for today at $17-$18. So, I have bought. I am a fundamentalist contrarian that looks for undervalued stocks. This sleepy company that is well managed, but flies under the radar with its "boring" products is cash flow positive and could pay off its debt this quarter. Also, a medium size company could acquire it for near $1 billion. Anyone else have any insights or info on FSS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Q2, Boring Conference Call

    by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I agree with you. I bought a large position in EXAS today, which is my 18th round trip in the stock. Ultimately, any position I have in EXAS will always make money. I just hate to see CG under marketed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Q2, Boring Conference Call

    by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    I have been trying to open the door with him to use CG since he thinks it is amazing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Q2, Boring Conference Call

    by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    I wish you were correct, but the dozens of the people that I have spoken to are typical of the unread America; 90% of them know nothing about CG and just rely on their gastros.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Q2, Boring Conference Call

    by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Also, CG is less expensive, easier, noninvasive, less risk, less time, etc., etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Q2, Boring Conference Call

    by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Thank you; I do have a lot of experience launching, managing and growing biomedical firms and you are correct to a point. In my personal and professional opinion, the gastroenterologists will never support Cologuard because of their financial interests. My gastro thinks CG is phenomenal product and a boon for Medicare, but he is still recommending colonoscopies. My CG is the only one he has done. The gastros will be dragged kicking and screaming, IMO, to using CG. The only way to get them to the party is a "pull-through" marketing campaign rather than the current "push-through" marketing campaign. IMO, this conservative, boring legalese approach is a disservice to people that will die from CRC without early CG screening and the shareholders of CG. In a decision analysis framework, IMO, there is everything to gain and little to lose from a more aggressive CG/colonoscopy marketing approach. EXAS' stock should be $35-$40 now on a DCF earnings approach. Thanks to the conservative, boring approach, some large diagnostic medical firm will probably pick up EXAS at $3 billion +/-. in the near future

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Jul 20, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    The conference call is overcoming the good news, progress and prospects for EXAS IMO. There seems to be an executive refusal to portray the advantages of Cologuard over colonoscopies and talk about the enormous upside of economic modeling for Cologuard's revenue projections, how many lives will be saved by higher screening rates and how much Cologuard will save insurers for late stage medical costs and deaths. These conference calls are boring and gives no one something to hang their hat on. Hence, the shorts continue to sway trading despite the enormous favorable fundamentals IMO. That is why the stock is down when it should be up IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ALK buyout

    by rgyinjapan May 29, 2015 8:51 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 13, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    Told you ALK was undervalued and worth nearly $80.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AMAT Highly Undervalued-Worth over $24

    by senior6analyst Jun 30, 2015 11:13 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 13, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    I am a contrarian fundamentalist, and the best time to buy a stock like AMAT is when the bad news swings a stock too low. the bad news for semiconductors does not apply to AMAT who will sell the next cycle of equipment technology. With its earnings, prospects, management, cash, dividend and technology, AMAT is great investment with 30+% upside. Go against the "herd" when fundamentals say otherwise. This mornings increase is only the beginning of AMAT's recovery.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Out Today after Close

    by sailingaway82 Jul 10, 2015 3:05 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 10, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    The shorts have blinked; covered nearly 2 million shares in last two weeks and 3 million shares since April! The A rating should be a slam dunk and I have calculated that EXAS should reach break-even about 1-2 quarters before running out of cash without any debt whatsoever. EXAS is undervalued considerably with its prospects, disruptive diagnostics and proprietary assets. You cannot keep a good company down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Compare Cologuard to 4K Score

    by anythinggi Jul 9, 2015 4:28 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 10, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Whoops, math error. OPK's cap value is more that 3x that of EXAS!

  • Reply to

    Compare Cologuard to 4K Score

    by anythinggi Jul 9, 2015 4:28 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 10, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    I'll re-look, but they are not as focused as EXAS and have twice the capitalization. With similar theoretical revenue potentials, my impression is either that EXAS is undervalued (which I believe) or OPK is overvalued?!

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 9, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    A major stock repurchase at these prices and low forward P/E would be more effective. Special dividends are not quite fair to option holders. Either way it would be a good move for this undervalued stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy