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Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO) Message Board

senior6analyst 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 17, 2015 9:59 AM Member since: Dec 18, 2006
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  • Reply to

    CYNO--Near-Term Prospects

    by senior6analyst Mar 16, 2015 12:20 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 17, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    Correction; analysts' estimates are $0.14 for Q1 and $0.29 for Q2.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 16, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    With proper marketing, education and sales, I doubt prospective candidates, medicare, or health insurers will want to wait for polyps and CRC to have ten years to progress. I believe that every three years will prevail as Cologuard becomes the early detection standard for concerned, intelligent or worried people.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Mar 16, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    I am still positive about CYNO's long-term prospects, but I sold my new position from last week early this morning during the run-up in the stock for three reasons: 1) it appears that the prospects from analysts for EPS Q1 & Q2 are less than $0.20, 2) I would expect the strong dollar to squeeze CYNO's margins near term, and 3) with the Fed about to raise rates I am prone to harvest my profits.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Earnings Out

    by lawwman719 Feb 10, 2015 9:02 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 11, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    I agree. I believe the year was so good, they conservatively built as many reserves as possible to lock in the next two quarters. Their revenues were far stronger than I suspected; probably, as a reult of their fast, effective integration and broad distribution coverage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Glad I bought some Mar 20 $30 Puts on this

    by mnmoneymaker1 Mar 11, 2015 4:22 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 11, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    You are correct in that I sold my position and took all of my profits again last month and earlier. However, CYNO's reults were even stronger than I expected and their new technology continues to lead the pack. This management team is outstanding, the market is growing, CYNO dominates the technology, and CYNO's distribution system is second to none, So, I started accumulating another large position during today's pullback. Their results, cash, domination. and prospects easily have moved up my intrinsic valuation model to $35-$40. Your profit on your Puts may be shortlived IMO. I will coninue buying tomorrow under $30.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Marketing win inevitable

    by spockthedr Mar 9, 2015 2:44 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 9, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    That's what is holding back thiscompany and its stock in my personal opinion. The legal conservatism that helped lock up and launch the proprietary Cologuard is now emphasizing just sales people and contracts. What's needed is aggressive marketing directly at Coloscopies with the superiority of Cologuard. There is a need for a different stage of management at this point IMO. This company is being run more akin to a political campaign rather than pursuit of results. Once Cologuard is marketed asa better, early screening test than a colonoscopy, it will succeed exponentially.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other Medicare providers

    by atomsmith Mar 4, 2015 12:00 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Mar 4, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    They will follow soon especially after CG recieving an "A." EXAS will surge with insurance coverage, particularly if the EXAS management more aggressively markets CG against colonoscopies. The CEO was outstanding at turning around EXAS' proprietary DNA marker platform, but, in my opinion, launching and marketing is where you do not want lawyers running a company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Burn Rate

    by captlabrat Feb 25, 2015 8:18 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 28, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I believe you are making two serious errors in your analysis. First of all, the gross margin is being impacted by the expensing of the laboraotory, equipment and processing overhead. Secondly, as the ramp for Cologuard use grows, the incremental gross margins will easily be 50% and at economic quality levels, move towards 75%. Hence, by the end of 2015, the burn-rate will be reduced by gross profits and in 2016 EXAS may even reach positive cash flow. Thus, EXAS' cash will easily last past two years. I believe that we have finally reached the point that EXAS will not need another secondary issue and additionally, the company will probably be sold for $30-$35+ as soon as the larger medical equipment, laboratory amd medical service firms notice the growth in adoption of Cologuard and the huge ultimate market size that is available to EXAS with its cologuard and other proprietary gastro DNA marker platforms for cancer. EXAS is once again undervalued. Its market cap is now only $2 billion for recurring reventue potential that has been estimated at $3 billion to $10 billion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 27, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    I believe your point is deserving of interest, but EXAS needs to more aggressively pitch Cologuard as a better choice for regular early screening than a colonoscopy (for those that have no polyp history). Conroy seems to tread softly with gastros, etc., assuming the world will just rush to CG without portrayed reasons vis-a-vis invasive colonoscopies and simple blood tests to do so. Broad advertising needs to indicate that it is a mistake if you are not having a CG every three years beginning at 40-50 years old. CRC costs lives because many people do not even think of it or do not comply with doctor's suggestions. It takes more than passive, redundant pitches at investor conferences to sell even a great product IMO. And, Cologuard is a great product. Just ask those of us that have CRC in our families. With the political scene evolving, we just might get a sale of EXAS to a large firm for $30-$35. That is only about $3 billion +/-.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    where will shorts get shares to cover

    by nznoodles Feb 21, 2015 2:20 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 22, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    Many of the institutions lend out shares at an annual rate of 5-9%. They believe in Cologuard for the long haul, but want to collect interest along the way from the shorting funds that borrow their shares. Just business to them. Ultimately, if the company reaches the noncompliant patients, the reticent doctors, and the intelligent middle aged people that do not want to die of CRC, there should be an incredible short squeeze. However, it will only be after the ramp demonstrates some geometrical growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IBD trial

    by sstephanc Feb 20, 2015 12:25 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 20, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Absolutely, an important point right now. Management at EXAS continue to appear overly conservative (lawyers?), but they have provided no updates on the IBD study that finished enrollment last year as you pointed out, other gastro studies with Mayo, no mention of studies for the "best" interval for CG, ACS Guidlines changes, what appears to be considerable progress with patients that used prior colonoscopies, penetration of noncompliant patients, and improvements for reaching asymptomatic candidates with advertising that more directly compares CG with a colonoscopy. "Best defense is an offense." This stock is highly undervalued. It is a "light bulb under a bushel basket" as they used to say in the midwest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    advice please

    by go_wings383 Feb 19, 2015 2:08 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 19, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    As many of the reponses to your email attest, Cologuard is safer, just as effective, more convenient, cheaper, and less invasive than a colonoscopy! Personally, I believe that Cologuard will eventually dominate the early screening for colorectal cancer within 5-10 years. If you have no history of polyps, etc., I cannot imagine why a patient would get a colonoscopy other than his/her physcian's fear of straying from the "historical gold standard." However, there is the investment rub (e.g, your physician)? The company, in my personal opinion, is not pitching Cologuard as a better, earlier alternative to colonoscopies for asymptomatic, intelligent candidates. And, the physicians have no incentive to switch patients out of fear, ignorance, or lack of reward. The lazy, ignorant, and cheap candidates will either be complacent or masochistic until Colguard becomes a fait accompli. Too bad; some people will continue to die from colorectal cancer that could have been saved. Eventually, EXAS will be a $200 stock, but it will take time if EXAS' management continually just say Cologuard is "another screening" device rather than a better choice than poking a metal snake into one of your elongated, sensitive internal organs. Near $25, this stock is a fundamental, screaming buy. At this rate, however, some larger company is going to pick up EXAS in the near future at $35, which would be for a song...........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Feb 11, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    In my personal opinion this was just a hit piece and provided an opportunity to rebuild a large position in EXAS today, which I did. For short-term investing/trading, EXAS is at the low end of its intrinsic value and for long-term investors it is highly undervalued.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CYNO
31.98+0.84(+2.70%)Apr 20 4:00 PMEDT