Already got a nearly 600% gain on this one.
Any rational and studied discussion in the company today must include recognition of the greater issue of free capital and the likely chance of significant dilution of the common shareholder position in ADMD.
It is neither positive nor negative but an issue to be considered when taking a position and the duration of time for which you stick with your position. I am of the opinion that in the medium to long term there are better places to be to make my money work for me.
I look forward to position building in ADMD again although I expect that with the cycle considered that will be a year or more for me. After an R/S, A/S increase, Dilution and the real share price much lower. A 1:3000 R/S first and then a reduction in SP to copper may be my buy. Long ways off in my opinion.
Good luck on your ADMD adventure in investing.
Oh man, are you ever wrong. Good luck with the hope. I hope you beleive your lies because you will really need to in order to stick to your position in this stock in my opinion. Good luck my little friend. ;-)
Looking better financially is certainly a matter of opinion and you would need to understand those financials quite well to draw a conclusion. They look the same financially to me as they restructured their debt position, it did not go away by any meens. You figure out the two ways it could go away. Then place your bet on the horse you think will win.
.....increase either the time to profit or the steepness of the curve upward required to be in a profitable position medium to long term.
In Dec '14 and into early '15 we were buying at the end of a dilution event. Now, in my opinion, you are clearly buying INTO a dilution event, a big one. The news or activities required to counter the effects of this enormous headwind on common shareholders will need to be extraordinary. I do not want to fight the trend on this one, I will buy after that headwind, hopefully at a far lower REAL share price and if there is a catalyst again.
I greatly support AMIC and all of there efforts to bring a greater quality of life to humanity through their medical devices. I want that for the people who work so hard for AMIC. I think Jim is a good person and I admire Carlton Cadwell for his faithful support of this venture, it really is a huge financial burden in my opinion.
The emotional and moral reasoning must not clutter the financial reasoning in the value of a stock. They are all but telling us that the value of our positions today in this company will be diluted. It is up to us to quantify what that will be, today I am qualifying it as quite significant. I AM NOT PLAYING HOPE'S GAME WITH MY MONEY. I have posted, and you have read, that I do not do that and my investment play in this stock in '14-'15 had nothing to do with hope. It had everything to do with being right. I suspect that I am very "right" with the stock at this time.
I will keep tempering outright posts with hope with some facts. I would like nothing more to post once again, THAT IA HAVE INCREASED MY POSITION. Those days were really fun!
The catalyst was different at the time that you and I jumped all over this thing back then. We were playing a long shot on a Phase III, a finite A/S situation and a new found momentum in the stock where the underlying company/approval was a virtual do or die. It worked.
Remember also that we came into the stock heavily (really to heavily in my case a the regards to position size to total stock portfolio) near the ends of toxic dilution into a huge milestone event for AMIC. An event which was not capital intensive at all for AMIC.
Now the situation is different. The catalyst is not there at this time. There are a lot of variables that are very capital intensive once again for AMIC. We know this because fortunately there are very honest people at AMIC, they are updating more regularly AND they file their required SEC documents timely and accurately, a wonderful thing for such a small firm.
Where are they now? In my opinion they are where they were at in 2013-2014 as far as development and capital needs. They are doing new animal tests, they are identifying with the study requirements needed at this stage in their research cycle and they are still identifying with more specific capital requirements. What is the next phase in the cycle? In my opinion it is a search for additional capital. That includes, but is not limited to, dilution events for common stock shareholders.
So where do I want to be? I want to be in the stock closer to the end of that cycle if that is where it looks to be setting up. I look at the realities, or the odds, that the stock will follow a certain financial cycle and then weigh that against how well their research cycle is going. Right now as an investor I do not see appreciation in my investment in AMIC being one which has much of any chance of appreciating for some time. In the short term, yeah there will be trades that could make some decent money. But the long position will be diluted in my opinion. This will further..
Just! Site your source that animal testing is ahead of schedule. Do not site another message board, or writing on the wall of your office. Site a reputable SEC 8K filing or a media sources. You can't in my opinion but let's see you start up the spin machine anyways for entertainment's sake. Read post above to Busy, it was meant for you, regarding "tests".
No it is not the Big Bang Theory, but it is easy to tell that you are watching TV instead of doing your evening's DD on AMIC starting by reading their 10q.
They are absolutely NOT doing better financially. They used a derivative device known as a Series A Preferred Convertible to kick the can a little down the road.
If updating a Twitter and Facebook page is what it takes then there are a lot of CEO and CFO in America who are really missing the financial boat.
Don't BS the message board to much. Reality is all just an SEC report away you know.
1.3 billion warrants, which were covered by 300 million shares, but management can provide no assurances that the warrant holder of 1.3 billion warrants will not protest. That one is not over yet. Yikes and yuck.
Below they tell us clearly what I have been trying to inform you of:
There are ongoing discussions with some of the Company’s lenders regarding alternatives to address the deficiency, and the Company currently anticipates seeking shareholder approval to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock necessary to provide for conversions and exercises of derivative securities, and to provide to future issuances
Shareholder approval is not relevant because Carlton owns majority of voting rights.
You know they are "talking or meeting" with the FDA but where is the info you have on animal tests? I see no evidence of that and it would not be a good use of capital to start tests prior to meeting with the FDA to identify exactly what the FDA was looking for in regards to study data to validate RadioGel's effectiveness.
Are you just making stuff up Busy? Do you remember why we were buying heavily in November/December of 2014? Yeah, it was due to a catalyst. There is no catalyst yet and you take profits when you have them, not lose them.
A good 10q is not one when the trading for the day was 9 million shares and UNDER the average. That is not even $13,000 considering that few traded at $.0015. What are you talking about? You have to keep with the numbers, the data in the SEC 10Q. At least on the day it was released. Maybe in a week from now it will be better to start up the Busy BS machine.
$8.8 in negative working capital?
We anticipate that if we are able to obtain the financing required to retire or restructure outstanding debt, pay past due payables and maintain our current operating activities that the terms thereof will be materially dilutive to existing shareholders. R/S - increase A/S - cover "When Issued" shares = dilution.......IMO.
Include the important parts, all of them. Cherry picking from one fiftieth of the 10q does you as well as others a great disservice don't you think? ;-)
So no one can refute points I have noted with regards to SEC filings? Where are the positive elements? Are there any? The SP and volume may be answering those question in my opinion. Attacking a poster instead of the poster's points is the clearest demonstration of ignorance on any message board. Those types of attackers usually do not even hold positions in the stock for which the message board is dedicated to. That is why you will see such inconsistency in the points they post, if they ever make a point at all relative to the stock.
Not one poster refutes my interpretation or speculation to the SEC filings.
1) they have not read the SEC filings
2) I am correct so they cannot refute SEC numbers.
Plumbing the lows to close the week, even with news that wasn't. What AMIC needs, and I am being serious now, is news of a large private funding from the likes of private equity. Yes, at a huge cost of Series A Preferred Convertible. A funding with solid milestones, funding on funding. They find a $25 million placement and this stock opens up ten, no twelve times, higher. Jim needs to get out there, no not Jim - he did not look good the last time, someone get out there at investor conferences and medical trade shows and get the word out to more organizations. Put out a press release on every one of these appearances.
That will bring the best kind of credibility. In fact if this is not happening then I feel like the whole thing is a side project. This has to change from a medical device development company in dire straights to one that is running with momentum. Vultures must be circling, waiting for the chance to grab RadioGel, someone needs to take that away from big Med Device company. Carlton will have to release his grip IMO or is it something that just gets sold when interest picks up, if interest picks up?
I have said that before, get taken private if not taken out. C'mon Jim, let's see what you can really do. Raise awareness and raise capital, I do not see the PRs of aa CEO doing his job 8 days a week!
I'll tell you. I put the AMIC money into VRX at $80-$71.50, my 6 month target is $120+/- 10%. I do not like the guy but when you consider what Ackman did it is a bit compelling. Add that to "why" it is down, with one specialty pharma, and more importantly Political BS, I think it is pretty compelling. I wish the short position was higher but VRX did not stay down long enough. See what that number is closer to their earnings report. Damned if you do, damned if you don't with regards to VRX shorts. It started rising in the face of bad news, it reminds me of the bottom in '09!
Billie hasn't done his homework on me, but worse yet he said he had Series A Preferred Convirtable Shares. Now that is the hilarity that brings me back to this MB. Talk about pure unadulterated stupidity. Definitely do the opposite of little Billie. A Bedwetter who attacks posters but cannot refute SEC filing analysis by posters like me. Not smart money, not even close!
So it is going to a penny without (before R/S) splitting. Now that is funny with no news, no way to pay for studies without diluting common with Preferred Convirtable Shares, and in my opinion not even going for an FDA approval to commercialize. They are looking for De Novo to change classification to Class II from Class III. That is not approval to commercialize Billie that is a change in class. Then you have human trials in my opinion an then maybe FDA says, Yeah you can commercialize in my opinion.
Going to a penny. Maybe after R/S when it works its way down to a penny.
Read the SEC filings please. There is a decent story and catalyst to my opinion.
No volume or appreciation in shares. How does that equate to a penny? Only you know little Billie, Series A shareholder with no SEC filing to back you up.
You know better Busy. Bedwetters just attack other posters with no substance. I am posting clear observation for discussion. Problem is no one can refute it. So you got in and road the thing to the moon with me. Now I am for the most part out, all for solid reasons I have posted, none of them bashes but observations of SEC filings. When I was in and building big position at 2-4-2, you caught on to it and acted in a similar manner. You have far more confidence short and medium term than I. So now we will all wait and see if it R/S here or at a penny. I believe it is closer to now than later and will be very happy with my current position. R/S, increase A/S and Issue....dilute. Hey, news of studies and payment with when issued shares is not a positive in my opinion for a common holder. Most don't do the math but the smart money does.
I would rather wait in the medium term (9-12months at least) and let the thing get diluted all to hell. Then as there really may have been something accomplished, the stock thoroughly hated, maybe buy back in. Kind of like last time. Like when you did.
CTIC and certainly others have been right here before. I like to make money while I wait for stocks to completely break down. I sure as heck would not be investing, or gambling, with a mechanism backed by "when issued" shares, so where will the money actually come from for all of these studies, then if FDA approved, human trials, and if FDA approved commercialization? I would probably just start with funding for the studies. It is pretty tough to buy even with some educated guesses at market timing, which is all that has worked with this stock in my opinion.
I do have to admit that was a fun run we went on. I will be buying again for the same reasons. Let you know!
It would be alarming as to the selling into any strength the stock might have lately but with the threat of a significant R/S and the issuing of Series A Preferred Convertible backed by "when issued" shares to likely large investors and to possibly pay for services I guess it makes sense.
They need big NEW news to break this short term cycle of buy dips and sell up for 10% profit. Not being a seller I have not been able to discern how strong the overhead resistance is. It could be great though with 700 million shares trading at .0005 just a few short months or so ago.
Really wondering when the R/S will occur, will it be 1000 shares to one or 3000, and when will the Authorized shares be increased after the R/S? They have but a year to do it. In equity all they have is Series A Preferred Convirtible to issue back by shares that do not exist today. Those are the shares to watch and remember the terms of such as well. Right now ADMD is only over issued by a meer billion + shares. Jump change right?
Who said they will R/S at a much higher share price? Like a penny or a penny and a half? What does that guy know that we don't? Oh, I know, it was James last interview several months ago.
I don't know about that. Company is issuing Series A Preferred Convirtables backed by "when issued" shares, has only reached a meeting stage for clarifications from FDA, has an agreement with ISO but no commercial terms we are aware of to actually pay for a study and no revenues. What kind of news will come from charity and right now who would put in the capital to buy the amount of shares necessary to drive the stock to a penny? You know with decent certainty that AMIC with R/S ADMD stock and increase the A/S to reserve shares for the "when issued" Preferred Convertible.
Hell of an uphill battle. AMIC has pulled it off though, private capital from owner Carlton and toxic investors. They may do it again. Today's update demonstrates they are getting there. Will they get there though at a significant cost to common shareholders again? That is yet to be seen. Exciting to watch to say the least.
It is nice to be kept up to spead a little better by AMIC. Today was just that, not "news". News moves stocks up and down on huge volume. Today? Nope. There was some selling into that poor interest and thus the stock remains in its price channel.
Stock just can't get off the floor. Who said an R/S was good news? Oh, that is right, someone who knows nothing about what they are posting, or knows nothing about AMIC/ADMD.
Already known and why stock barely budged on low volume. If they did not do this then there would be no study/trial. Like I said, sell the news to newbies unless it is REAL NEWS.
Good Luck. This is not how it gets to a penny, to say the least. Reverse Split pending. It will have to happen with or without a higher stock price.