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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

sensiseattle 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jun 26, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Laugh or cry?

    by sensiseattle 15 hours ago
    sensiseattle sensiseattle 3 hours ago Flag

    Yup. I think that they will want to wait until all authorized is paid to convertibles. Of course I am wondering if there is enough to cover them. How will they deal with that? $150k due in January and $255,880 in February. These have 50-60% of average share price clauses for payout. I am not so sure how that one works if they come due and the share price is .0001. That is 4 billion shares?
    Not sure how AMIC took on those loans. Did they get ahead of it some how? We will never know until the next filing comes out. AMIC is against communicating, like there is a "policy" against it or something. They got all that money. Was it to continue their program or to catch the next plane flying as far from Kennewick as possible? All just opinions of course.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle 15 hours ago Flag

    1.2+ billion shares traded in 12 days of trading. Stock has done pretty much a full circle and no progress. I personally gotta laugh. Not many stocks have done that. Hey, you gotta give it credit, it has liquidity with all those .0003-.0001 shares going around! Hilarious, unless you are waiting for a nickle a share. You'll be waiting a while if that is the case, unless of course, they do a reverse split. In that case you might be waiting a little, little while but it still might not happen. That would be a gigantic reverse.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Here comes a pump!

    by thebusybeliever Dec 15, 2014 2:44 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle 16 hours ago Flag

    We do not know how many convertible shares are being held to sell. Could be just a wee bit of upward pressure on the stock.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Before they resubmit to FDA

    by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 2:51 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 17, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    You ask because you can. It is their responsibility to discern what and how questions should be answered. Maybe an insider is a friend of yours, your call.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Before they resubmit to FDA

    by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 2:51 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 16, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Seems like a great question to me. Even a response like, "A year out" would be better than nothing. Maybe information like that can only be answered through a public statement. Getting a response on when there may be a general update to the public does not seem irresponsible at all. They did give that one interview, pre-recorded, but I do not recall when that was off the top of my head.

    Not getting any response seems quite negative. At least someone could say that information is not available at this time. It is basic business etiquette to respond, even if the response does not answer any questions. Bummer.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Before they resubmit to FDA

    by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 2:51 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 15, 2014 10:48 PM Flag

    What did you ask them? Must have been the hard questions you asked.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Here comes a pump!

    by thebusybeliever Dec 15, 2014 2:44 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 15, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Yes on quite a few shares bought. Although I am on that list and I do not plan on selling them for a double. I have not done so yet. You buy that cheep for far more than I double I would hope. While a lot of shares are trading it does not add up to that much money daily so consider that. It really does not have that much liquidity and you are fighting with quite a few other sellers. Not so many buyers. If you were totally new to this company would you buy on what you see? Heck no you wouldn't! It looks horrid now, all hope is gone, share price at virtually zero! There are a hell of a lot of other stocks worth trading daily than ADMD.

    Hey, on a lighter note I am going to stand by my expectation for share appreciation of .0010 going into re-submittal, or a gamble on re-submittal. I think that it is reasonable to buy into that event. Maybe that is what is going on now, maybe not. I do not think that 900K+ bid at .0001 has anything to do with it but this small buying could be. Anyways, in my opinion there are soooo many better stocks to buy if you are doing it for money as a trader. You could just go around buying and selling top gainers from YAHOO's homepage and do better. This one, well, it is a total gamble. "Step right up and spin THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE!" ;-)

    SS

  • Reply to

    Here comes a pump!

    by thebusybeliever Dec 15, 2014 2:44 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 15, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Busy. I appreciate your read on this. Lord knows we have seen what you are pointing out before. This time though, why do believe history will repeat itself? What do you know that you can share? Is there news "or a pump article" out somewhere?

    I am not saying you are wrong by any means. I do like new press is all, even if a pump, like that patent news.

    SS

  • Reply to

    The heart of the problem

    by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 10:10 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 14, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    If someone knew, even an insider, that something was coming down the pipe or wanted RadioGel in their lineup now would be a heck of a time to buy. Tax loss selling and maybe a convertible holder or two trying to unload.

    That buy of that many shares would be a controlling interest in the company. Control of decisions and even who runs the company. It is very interesting to say the least.

    SS

  • Reply to

    The heart of the problem

    by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 10:10 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    So with all of this in mind. Who is bidding for 900 million or more shares at .0001? Why?

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 10:10 PM Flag

    AMIC has roughly $100k of convertible debt coming due each month out to August 2015. Debt that will be paid through shares and most of the time the terms are set at 50%, or worse, of the last ten day's trading price average. With only 2 billion shares and a trading price of .0002 a share it is simply impossible to fulfill these convertibles under current share structure. There are not nearly the number of shares needed to fulfill these obligations.

    So what must happen is they re-submit to FDA under de novo or they actually come through with a submittal for RadioGel as a Class III medical device. Either will work of course. They need to get the share price up and quickly, way up. If this is not possible then they must reverse split and increase their authorized share count. The share price just cannot rise enough to absorb these shares that are coming to market. Only with strong news driving share price or news that will get a convertible shareholder to actually hang on to their shares for a while will AMIC get where they need to go.

    Buyouts are great to talk about but you are talking about AMIC with tens of millions of dollars of debt and these huge financing obligations in addition. A partnership is fun to talk about too but again the debt and obligations. If they took a bankrupcy they might get some debt forgiven but would they have any chance of keeping their liscense to RadioGel? That is the most valuable thing they have so the judge may leave them that. At this stage insiders have given up nor have any concern for their share price, or their commited share holders. I think they can only see what is in front of them. Their vision? Clouded.

    These are all my opinions of course but that 10Q looks worse and worse every time I review it. A buyer or a partner will have to come in with tens of millions of dollars for AMIC's debt before any money can be allocated to further development of RadioGel. Messy.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 13, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    In my opinion this stock share price will climb back up to .0010. I think that it will go there because enough people know the situation. They have had the time to tune up the submittal and it is the next step in my opinion. Resubmittal is a milestone event that folks will try to buy into. Anyone's guess on how high the SP will rise after news of the submittal hits the street. You buy on forming catalysts.

    I am the first one to admit that I never expected that it would take a year to get this resubmittal together. They must be doing a heck of a job tuning it up. Biggest problem though is are they resubmitting at all?

    The failure to communicate with shareholders is a huge fault on AMIC's part. It is the biggest reason in my opinion that the share price is horrid. Even if they had said they were a year out on their next step it would have been better than nothing. The stock would not be where it is in my opinion. They have not been a shareholder friendly company whatsoever. I am not even sure that holders of convertibles are happy at this stage and they had a sure shot.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Very frustrating to say the least.

    by sensiseattle Dec 7, 2014 7:13 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 12, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    Wow, the two cent ask went away or ran out of shares. Wasn't so sure I would see that again. So many buys today, what a change, green trades throughout the day.

    SS

  • Reply to

    How Easy Is This

    by jstthnkn Dec 12, 2014 8:05 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 12, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    I am not sure that is exactly how it would work but it is a funny thought. When you put $.50 on this stock I would think you would have to do so with the authorized 2 billion shares in mind. If you do so then you come out with a billion dollar company. The history has been one of dilution so it is safe to assume those two billion shares are issued. Hey, you would put a dent in their debt if they used the money for such. You might be able to push the stock to a half penny though just on the backs of uneducated share buyers. At that though you would not cover your $2 million.

    Hey, try it out. I think it would be hilarious just seeing what would happen.

    The best chance this has is a small number of shareholders own a lot/most of the shares. The shares become centralized and not held in a majority by insiders. They hold on tight to those shares. Then break out the news of a refiling. The stock could run a while before the gang started selling some of their shares. Then if by some heavenly action the FDA approved things could get pretty nutty.

    You have to take all 2 billion shares into consideration when pricing the stock. The insiders have already made it clear that they will use them in my opinion.

    Hey, a penny a share. $20 million market cap on 2 billion shares would make me and many others very very happy. That is not a stretch in my opinion when/if they refile. Especially post filing 45-50 days or so as considerable gambling would take place on the chances of approval by FDA.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Question about the bid

    by sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 9:23 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 12, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    Anderson, the agreement with AMIC might be in the way. As long as no one else develops a similar product Batelle might just be waiting until the agreement expires. I have not seem the commercialization agreement so just tossing the thought out there. The while deal right now is strange. For the reasons you mention why wouldn't Battelle go after the whole enchilada and take their technology back? We are missing something!

    SS

  • Reply to

    Question about the bid

    by sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 9:23 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 12, 2014 12:31 AM Flag

    Even more interesting stuff today! I did not know a stock could go below .0001 but ADMD managed just that today! It went to .000099! Just keep adding zeros I guess. It must work the same way as the Authorized shares. Just adding zeros to the opposite ends of the number.

    The more the shares the lower the shareprice. Funny how that has worked out.

    Will it ever change? Ever? I guess a reverse split would do it.....for a few minutes at least. Until the market opened anyways. :-)

    SS

  • Reply to

    This will get FDA re-file before end of month

    by garyalden28 Dec 11, 2014 5:00 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 11, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    Per what source?

    SS

  • Reply to

    Question about the bid

    by sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 9:23 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    Would the 900 million share buyer chase the price higher on news? Will any news be held until the 900 million share bid is filled? That would be like capitulation if that bid filled. Is it just a MM game being played?

    I have never seen this before but this is only my second/third micro cap rodeo.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    Good thoughtful responses if possible.

    The bid at .0001 got up to 900+ million shares today. We know that is almost half of the authorized shares. Who would buy that many shares of a falling knife like ADMD? They would have a majority interest in the company for goodness sakes.

    What will you do when you wake up some morning soon and AMIC resubmitted and the share price has jumped to .005 or some ungodly number from .0002?

    Who wants nearly half of the companies shares down here?

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 9, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    Nice. How much will fill though? .0001? Only 57 million on the ask!

    SS

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