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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

sensiseattle 172 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2015 12:37 AM Member since: Jun 26, 2007
  • sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 8, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    It sounds to me you have enough reasons to sell there. Why don't you sell? Why are you even contemplating buying. What is that, six things that you perceive as negative? How could you even still be buying? Did you miss the whole move from .0002 to 44? That was hard to miss. Your concerns will not be addressed before the FDA brings their decision so instead of belly aching why don't you save your sanity and negative attitude and sell?

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  • Reply to

    What June 9th?

    by sensiseattle Jun 4, 2015 11:38 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 8, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    So I think June 12th. Allows for a couple days off for ridiculous government holidays. :-)

    Seems the news always leaks so I am looking for a move minutes before announce....

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  • Reply to

    ISR and Sirtex valuations

    by smallcaptrdr24 Jun 6, 2015 9:57 AM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 7, 2015 12:51 AM Flag

    Seeing it trading at .05-.10, don't you wonder why it is not a penny pre-FDA? You are talking about a huge move post FDA on what looks like very little interest pre-FDA.

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  • Reply to

    ISR and Sirtex valuations

    by smallcaptrdr24 Jun 6, 2015 9:57 AM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 7, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    Those numbers are just too rich in my opinion. You have a company that has a tremendous amount of investment still needed to create revenue. You are putting a broad brush to it on approval and giving it a valuation of $100-$200 million. That is a giant multiple don't you think? On approval with nothing else what is RadioGel Y-90 worth. Before use or trials? If irrational exhuberance is 5 cents then why is volume low now and price is pethetic? Very few investors look to be buying the decision. Must be a huge contingency on the "wait and see" who are willing to pass on a 300% gain. I think that in itself is part of my problem and second guessing my DD as high with a price of .018.

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  • Reply to

    buying?..

    by showmedltems Jun 5, 2015 5:31 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 6, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    So then what do you glean from the numbers?

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  • Reply to

    ISR and Sirtex valuations

    by smallcaptrdr24 Jun 6, 2015 9:57 AM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 6, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Smallcap, these are great considerations to the real growth opportunity before AMIC as well as cancer treatment as a whole. With FDA approval we should have a stock (company) that can be a long term position in the portfolio. Not six months to a year but a real long termer.

    What I have been trying to figure out the move in share price that could occur short term for the stock with an approval. I am trying to compare it the ISR since they have a recent approval. It has been a pain in the ass since company's debt and cash burn are so different. Do you have an idea on that? I keep coming to around .018 give or take some points if I change the debt a bit. Debt with all the convertibles is a total crap shoot. The company has to split and issue more shares as well unless there is a cash infusion to address debt from a partner. My number plays on that more since current debt is a fixed number to work off the 10q.

    I keep second guessing the number as it seems high. I am only doing it to manage a short term move to get grips as to when the stock moved on good FDA and "what" is considered irrational exuberance.

    I am also less concerned about maintaining the patent rights when/if FDA approves. I imagine it has been considered by AMIC as there would be a serious lack of motivation from them if they were questioning their ability to fulfill business plan over it. They appear motivated to go to the next level. I hope I see a follow up article on AMIC in Seattle Business Magazine discussing their next leg in coming to market with their new RadioGel.

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  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Jun 5, 2015 9:08 PM Flag

    FDA, AMIC and Batelle have done the work. They got thrown for your loop with a Class III. They hunkered down and countered with more hard work. They got you the submittal you need to do your double check. Now there is someone with cancer, and their physician, ready to try a treatment solution using RadioGel.

    GIVE THEM THAT CHANCE. Put your labels on it, I don't care. Make it a study trial case with a 200 patient enrollment, I don't care. The thing of it is that RadioGel is an inert substance going from liquid, to formed matrix, and back to dissolved liquid substance. An easily monitored process which completes its process in an extremely short period of time. Isn't that all it is FDA? Then it is all about tracking tumor and tissue response.....that is NOT RadioGel, that is every cancer treatment. We are not talking about a great, or long study here to identify the real results!

    FDA, give RadioGel a chance today, not years from now....TODAY. This team can do research, have they demonstrated that yet to you? Let them continue then to do the research. The research that RadioGel, and cancer patients and doctors deserve.

    Oh, have a nice weekend too! I will.

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  • Reply to

    buying?..

    by showmedltems Jun 5, 2015 5:31 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 5, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Gotta admit, it was fun buying those dips and selling the rips. Never knew when buying if it was going to crash and selling shares that may double. Good breather. Have my core.

    Ready to see AMIC win one now. It is always nice to see a small business and some guys get a win here and there. Thumbs up the RadioGel and give this AMIC team a victory. Probably help out some cancer patients too who just want to fight on and live, to be with the ones they love a bit longer. That is what it is really all about. Pinch me I am dreaming!

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  • Reply to

    buying?..

    by showmedltems Jun 5, 2015 5:31 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 5, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    Dang low volume days. Tried to buy 43 late morning but NO GO! Where is that short push? 46% but that does not make for many shares on this volume. Who knows if my buying yesterday was a good or bad decision. Picking up on the trending range and in case AMIC announced this afternoon with a positive message. That dice roll didn't work. Maybe it did. It is almost nice being stuck for a week straight. ;-)

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  • Reply to

    What June 9th?

    by sensiseattle Jun 4, 2015 11:38 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 4, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    Yes, I did add some shares throughout the day today. Just a little but some shares none the less.

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  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Jun 4, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    I believe that is 120 business days from submittal to FDA of the De Novo for Radiogel. That is the duration of review by FDA for De Novo I believe it said. This is the last Friday trade if the response is to come at 120 days. We have not heard the clock has stopped for questions. I think time is running thin to take a position or add to an established one. I think at this share price a response that is almost anything but a denial and the share price could really rise a bit. I am tired of waiting, what the heck will be our future with RadioGel?!?!

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  • Reply to

    Hard to tell who's more inept ISR or ADMD

    by dools4u2 Jun 3, 2015 1:47 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Jun 4, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    If you have identified this us the case through your DD process then why on earth are you here? Your post provides no specific points for discussion nor a question? Just curious is all. I kind of think that AMIC is in a point within its commercialization business plan where not a lot can happen until FDA provides input. They could be talking to partners though. I would not expect them to provide any information at this time to shareholders as it would merely be speculation and we can all do that on our own. Information in a PR can be dangerous as we recently learned with ISR. AMIC could be working commitments in place with WSU for the studies at the vet program.

    I would certainly not say either firm is anything near DOA as you put it. Maybe you should go find a company or two that does meet your investing criterium and quit wasting time here. Maybe.

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