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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

sensiseattle 101 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jun 26, 2007
  • Reply to

    Selling the news

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 12:43 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle 20 hours ago Flag

    The situation is the same as it always has been. It was no different than when they filed the 510k on November 3rd, 2013. It was on announcement from the FDA months later that the stock fell, as it should have. Back then, during FDA review, the company carried a $15 to $20 million market cap. That was conservative for the device being reviewed, RadioGel. Now a more robust filing has been submitted in my opinion and the company is valued at $2 million? That is a bust to me in the numbers.

    Just looking at the volumes from Friday and this morning and I see a stock that rose on great grant news on Friday. Then the "late comers" came, like bedwetters and made a mess of the share price. They are traders. The FDA filing news came out, which is more important than the grant news, and these same traders dumped because they know nothing of AMIC or RadioGel. All they could do was read the concerns. They have no understing of RadioGel, the history behind it nor how the FDA process works. With all that in mind the stock found its bottom right where it started, with the grant news run.

    I think the idiocy of it all, the trading, is that those who wanted in before the FDA filing just got an enormous gift because if not for the panic traders the share price would be above where it closed today. The longs got to buy the stock falling rather than rising on the great news of the refiling! I think now the stock will melt up over the next 60-120 days until the FDA makes its determination.

    You should be happy you were buying at .0002-.0003 as we were posting just a couple weeks ago. That was the obvious buy and you did it!

    SS

  • Reply to

    Read the 513(f)(2)

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 4:43 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle 21 hours ago Flag

    The Bedwetters:

    billbarnes591 (dec22), gmoites, stanmitchell40, s.wilson2222, garyalden28 (dec11), buzierbee41 aka ronrunoff, stevebonham247, jdodd11, fishhooks922, logancarl85, marymopes, augispr, thourough1234, leaonbrodsky, juiceupon33, bryanmorris647, Richard.williams47, papachomp, marcoruibiot.

    They are the naysayers, poster attackers, buy high sell low, do not own ADMD, scam screamers, carney barkers and generally time wasters on this YMB. I probably missed a few but my memory is only so good. If I missed you then I apologize. Being a bedwetter is a big deal of course. Merry Christmas bedwetters. I hope you get more than the lump of coal you deserve!

    SS

  • Reply to

    Read the 513(f)(2)

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 4:43 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle 22 hours ago Flag

    I never bump a post but I will this one. I do it as much for the message as for the motivation that the Bedwetters on this message board provide me.

    They are the ones who complain, thumbs down and attack posters on this board. Posters like me who share their opinions honestly and openly with the rest of the board to comment. They hate anyone who might ask a question seeking an answer about AMIC or ADMD stock. They really hate a poster who might post factually from an SEC filing or through information they may have gained through research and homework on AMIC.

    The more they attack others the more motivated I, and hopefully others are, to drown out their white noise.

    So I think this post "Read the 513(f)(2)" is a good one. It irritates them so I bump it. In fact almost any post on AMIC that is attacked by the bedwetters on this message board is probably a decent read.

    So in fairness to all I will post the bedwetters in a minute. They are the one line posters, always attacking another poster or an idea. They are usually pretty "new" in their alias history. They all pretty much say the same thing and most likely are the same person. So bedwetters, if you want to just post garbage all the time I will post often and real long with lots of references if anyone asks for them. Just keep it up.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    If you are a real investor, not a trader, then you have to do your homework. Below from another post thread:

    I have read through the 513(f)(2) information. It is easy to find when you put it in your browser. The information there outlining the process and expectations does not appear to be unreasonably restrictive. While we do not know the specific expectations placed on RadioGel through all of the review and preparation that AMIC has gone through to re-submit I do not see this resubmittal as a negative at all.

    The sellers today in my opinion did not do their homework on this but probably do not care either way. They come in bunches trying to make a buck and then they sell in bunches trying to beat the other guy to that buck.

    If you bought AMIC because of their mission, their people and their products then this resubmittal is not a moment to sell but a time to do even more homework. Read the 513(f)(2) and understand it. Then make your decision to buy or hold. I take solace in the fact that once again AMIC has accomplished a milestone in their plan, that they are working in the right direction and apparently, even with tremendous exterior forces and pressure, have full commitment to moving forward.

    As for the comments in the news release about their risks? Well, they did not have to put them in their first of all. I believe that the fact that they did simply further demonstrates their integrity and maybe even a preference towards investors that are willing to do their homework and only after that invest in AMIC. They prefer investors who know what they are buying and who are for the most part buying for the longer haul.

    Great news today. Great news on Friday as well. Whatever the market is looking for is beyond me. Maybe a little deceit, instead of honesty, would have helped. I do not get the impression that AMIC is the company interested in that kind of business.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Selling the news

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 12:43 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    I have read through the 513(f)(2) information. It is easy to find when you put it in your browser. The information there outlining the process and expectations does not appear to be unreasonably restrictive. While we do not know the specific expectations placed on RadioGel through all of the review and preparation that AMIC has gone through to re-submit I do not see this resubmittal as a negative at all.

    The sellers today in my opinion did not do their homework on this but probably do not care either way. They come in bunches trying to make a buck and then they sell in bunches trying to beat the other guy to that buck.

    If you bought AMIC because of their mission, their people and their products then this resubmittal is not a moment to sell but a time to do even more homework. Read the 513(f)(2) and understand it. Then make your decision to buy or hold. I take solace in the fact that once again AMIC has accomplished a milestone in their plan, that they are working in the right direction and apparently, even with tremendous exterior forces and pressure, have full commitment to moving forward.

    As for the comments in the news release about their risks? Well, they did not have to put them in their first of all. I believe that the fact that they did simply further demonstrates their integrity and maybe even a preference towards investors that are willing to do their homework and only after that invest in AMIC. They prefer investors who know what they are buying and who are for the most part buying for the longer haul.

    Great news today. Great news on Friday as well. Whatever the market is looking for is beyond me. Maybe a little deceit, instead of honesty, would have helped. I do not get the impression that AMIC is the company interested in that kind of business.

    SS

  • Reply to

    For you the seller

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 1:15 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Getting some great panic selling going on here. Maybe some convertible shares. Interesting that the stock is now back to its price per share on Friday after news of the grant. Talk about filling the gap down. Some good news is good, some good news is bad. You can definitely see the panic though from all buyers who came in yesterday and late to the party.

    God forbid they hold onto their shares in the event the company get FDA approval of RadioGel. Of course there is time to play that decision too if you are a trader. I bet this good news about the re-submittal gets us back down to .0006 a share. It will oversell that much before melting back up in my opinion.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Fully diluted you are pricing the company at $2.4 million dollars if it is fully diluted on 2 billion shares.

    Do realize that in November (the 3rd or so) 2013 when they first submitted 510K to FDA this company was valued at over $20 million on just under 200 million shares.

    In my opinion they are in a hell of a lot better position today with regards to FDA submissions then they were 13 months ago.

    Hey, go ahead and sell! There are plenty of buyers who will take your shares. Buyers who know that this could be gift in my opinion.

    I am pricing the stock with a market cap of $20 million. Fully diluted at 2 billion shares that is just $.01.

    This is great news, this submittal. It made it right in time for Christmas. Go ahead and sell the news. I will gladly take these shares as a gift.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Selling the news

    by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 12:43 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Kayak (and all), They are selling the news in my opinion.

    Let's put this into perspective. The stock is selling at $.0012. Fully diluted 2 billion shares out the door issued that values this company at on $2,400,000 today. That to me is absolutely ridiculous!

    Back in November of last year there were roughly 191K shares issued when they went to the FDA the first time. The stock traded at .12 or so a share. That was over $20 million market cap.

    Today they are far closer to approval with the FDA than back then. In my opinion, if you are selling shares then you are an idiot or have convertible shares and you want to break even on your "loan" to AMIC.

    SS

  • sensiseattle by sensiseattle Dec 23, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    We always have the sell the news crowd. Same approach for last submittal. Then it rises again into FDA decision date. Same ole, same ole.

    I believe this time is a little different though. In my opinion RadioGel gets its long deserved approval this spring.

    SS

  • sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    My thoughts still remain that there are not enough shares for convertibles left at this stage. You can do the rough numbers quite quickly, knowing you; you already have. January-May run the numbers. I think that when that info came out when we saw a dip. It did hold back SP today a bit. I wanted to see appreciation through the week, maybe we will yet see that on the grant news. Now if they re-sub soon and get the price to my target of .01 then based on my guess of where issued shares might stand today then they could make it against the convertibles. That is if those new shareholders ride until FDA approval OR sell only to break even. They keep their freebie shares to run with SP.

    Who the heck knows! You and I sure missed on how long the re-sub would take. Maybe it was just me missing on what really was a guess for all of us. ;-)

    SS

  • Reply to

    The next peice of news should be

    by sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 1:06 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    YOU BUY FOR RE-SUBMITAL. NOW, LATER, WHATEVER but before submittal! Just my opinion. Why I was buying.....

    SS

  • Re-submittal to FDA.

    This grant thing was a surprise to all of us. The priority though remains the same. ADMD get back with the FDA.

    Please....if manners count.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    It takes long in my opinion if it is the last time you are going to do it and you are going to do it RIGHT.

    If they re-submit then it won't just pop, it will pop because unless they royally screwed up Radiogel could very likely get approved. Yeah, it has been more than long enough to do a re-submittal. I agree with you entirely on that. Not sure about the rules nor if there are grey areas like everything else that has to do with "rules".

    SS

  • sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    Looked like a settlement clearing up an action. That would be a good thing I would think. Maybe I am missing something reading it at a blush on my cell phone.

    Re-submittal......my focus. This run is just beginning if they can get the re-sub to the FDA....SOON.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Big pop. Just landed from Phoenix. Went to Hawks game. Eyes pipped out of my head. Gotta go get off plane!!!

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 22, 2014 1:17 AM Flag

    So what will you think if we do see a De novo? The meeting went well last summer and the FDA......

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 20, 2014 7:42 PM Flag

    Oh no, no Form 4 for me. I am just a bit over $20k at .0009. I did not get in much as far as money. Those shares are hardly a blip as I think a lot of the AS was used for convertibles. I think the issued share count is up there pretty good at this stage. Not sure how the other convertibles will be filled, not sure how many shares are left to issue.

    The deal was for me, as always, is whether or not the "product" could be good. I thought while buying that if they could survive the convertibles short term (Summer to Winter) then they might make it to re-filing. That is why I am having the freak out here about Jan/Feb convertibles. Need to re-file before they are due in my opinion but with that overhead pressure of convertibles the stock run could be limited unless they hold their shares. In my opinion only re-file might get them to hold a bit and let the price run. This news yesterday was a blindside gift. It drives the price up and that might help get the stock even higher than it otherwise would be on re-file news.

    I kept buying also because I could get the share price to $.01 on re-filing as long as all those convertible shares did not hold it back too much. So we saw how Jim and Carlton acted with regards to shares before the grant news came out. Will they buy more into news of a re-filing? Was that acquisition by them not just for grant but a buy ahead of further news? It is a hell of a lot of shares for Jim all things considered. Quite a lot for just some news on grants.

    Yeah, I am watching closely for Form 4s. Where are the other insider buys? Better not be any sells, this stock will get rocked in my opinion.

    Oh, no would've, could've or should've! Think about the dude or dudes that had the bid just recently (last wk I think) for over 900 million shares at $.0001. Are they still coming in or do they think they lost it with the rally? I was looking at that bid all day and thinking, "just buy the stuff at $.0002!"

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 20, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Moto to put this into further context. This week my share holdings in ADMD exceeded Katz, Joliff and Spivak's combined holdings at the time of reporting for the preliminary proxy for the vote to increase AS to 2 billion. You might have as much too if you kept buying low as I did after vote in .0003-.0002 range. As far as I know this is the first increase in holdings by all insiders except Caldwell since then. Now Katz has made a big jump in his holdings with this Form 4. With all things considered if he does not hold these shares for a significant time then I think it is a powerful "tell" for the next year for us shareholders. Why would I or yourself want to carry that much more than one of the top insiders? In fact, back to more than the three noted above, if Jim liquidates back to his previous position size. I am not aware of any additions by Spivak and Joliff.

    Anyways, that is all. I will put it to bed now.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 20, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Trying to find a positive in these actions by Jim & Carlton.

    At least as insiders they will have to report the sale of these securities. I will watch for this as I believe it demonstrates their sentiment, at least in the short term. I would not like to see a Form 4 that these shares were sold in the days to come short term. It would be a sign to me toto possibly take profits in some of the cheap shares I have acquired. Not saying I would but that is my thinking from a trading standpoint short term.

    Anyways, it is always good to see an investment from an insider. What was the conversion price and all that is a we fully important. Watch it, as well as the January convertibles due for $100-150kk.

    SS

  • Reply to

    Form 4 out.

    by garyalden28 Dec 19, 2014 2:41 PM
    sensiseattle sensiseattle Dec 20, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    They had to get those in place before they released the news. That could explain some reason for the delay. They needed to get those shares before the price jumped. They were basically a Christmas bonus. I wonder how many shares they got rid of yesterday. As soon as I saw those forms I was looking for the date and how many shares they got, coincidentally, right before releasing news.

    It got them shares at the best possible price and kept them off the open market. They can do anything they want. "Outsiders" do not matter to them in my opinion. I think the board of directors for the most part just fill out a nice page on their website. This stuff sucks. Here on one thread I say I like the company and its insiders but then on this thread there is something I really do not like. I guess it cuts both ways when it comes to companies, stocks and when it is your money involved!

    We are going to have a good week next week. It will be a good Christmas. Santa is coming. In my opinion the gift from AMIC will be a re-sub to the FDA. They are going to give us a good surprise for once! I can sense it. ;-)

    SS

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