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Staples, Inc. Message Board

septcalls06 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2014 2:52 PM Member since: Jul 16, 2009
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  • Reply to

    I'll wait for $88 to sell my puts

    by septcalls06 Aug 29, 2014 10:18 AM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Sep 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Stage 1 of my plan complete.

    I actually sold all of my puts though as the straw that broke this was a simple data breach which LIKELY will only have a small effect on consumers shopping at home depot in my opinion. I expect news to come out describing what the breach was, that Home Depot has corrected the issue, and that the overall effect of this breach was fairly minor. Stock might bounce up on that and then I might short it again.

    I still think $88 is realistic before HD makes enough foundation to support $90's - $100's if it ever does get there.

  • Reply to

    Market down and HD hardly down

    by mountain_seaspray Sep 2, 2014 1:31 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Sep 2, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    and there's my 20% profit on my puts I was waiting for... lovely

  • Reply to

    93.15 and climbing

    by mountain_seaspray Aug 29, 2014 11:46 AM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 31, 2014 2:00 AM Flag

    It's 18 actually, which places it at the higher end of the future PE values this stock has historically seen.

    It's a good company, but growth is approaching it's limit at the same rate and will begin to slow in my opinion. Keep in mind I still think the company will grow, just not at the same pace as it has been.

    I also think one poor economic data set or negative event on the word stage and this will begin to fall back into the high 80's.

  • Reply to

    93.15 and climbing

    by mountain_seaspray Aug 29, 2014 11:46 AM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 29, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Hi,
    What's your logic behind a $115 target? That would plave this at a higher earnings multiple than this stock has had in the 21st century.

    Thanks

  • My reasoning is mostly the psychological side of the market.

    Good news and bad news that causes spikes tends to (based on history) oscillate meaning that the initial rise or fall overshoots what the appropriate reaction is.

    HD has consistently had a P/E ratio range each year of between ~16 to 22. Currently we sit at 22 so we're on the high side by comparison to current in the books earnings ($4.20). Projected earnings are showing as $4.52 this year, but lets call it $4.60. At 19 x Future P/E this is $87.40 for the stock price. I picked 19 as this is right in the middle of the long term trend in ranges. Can it stay a bit higher than that? yes... can it earn more than that? possibly, but with difficulty in my opinion.

    At the end of the day, we all have opinions that vary. Mine is that this move upward is overextended in the short term and the stock will come back down from here. I'll sell some of my puts at ~$91 and make enough to play the potential move further down off largely free money. At least that's the plan.

  • Reply to

    Top is in....

    by bethesparrow Aug 26, 2014 8:05 AM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 28, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    I bought puts yesterday and averaged down today. I like the company, but this growth is dependent on the ability to continue the same earnings growth which will be tough to do in my opinion.

    I think HD has done an amazing job, but every penny of higher earnings will become tougher to make. Any ways, like the company, don't like the stock right now.

    Also eyeing a short in GPS if it continues higher tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    possible reserve charge

    by vonerick1980 Aug 10, 2014 8:07 AM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 10, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    I anticipate that the review will determine little change required on the basis that the 2nd quarter contained outliers from the average mortality rate, etc.

    The formulas haven't been outlandishly wrong up until the Q2 so the fact that the earnings from LTC reduced dramatically and suddenly is more a condition of abnormal conditions rather than inaccuracies in the formulas. I'm not saying there won't be any impact, just that it won't be a monstrous one.

  • I have not been a long term shareholder and in fact, I am not intending on being a long term shareholder. I simply play stocks that appear to be on one end of the spectrum as values appear to become less than accurate.

    It sounds from the other posts that many of you have been long term shareholders going back all the way to when this was sub $5. Would one of you mind giving me a bit of a history lesson on what caused the dramatic dips in the past?

    Thanks

  • septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 7, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    I don't understand your "make the ship right" comment. Can you explain what in your mind makes this a ship that needs righting?

  • Reply to

    Easy double from here

    by petermotz Aug 5, 2014 12:37 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 5, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I actually think there will be a rise pre-earnings.

    I anticipate someone writing up a work on the potential effects of X amoutn of dollars being required as additional reserve as a result of the study and what the potential impact to EPS could be.

    For the sake of argument, say even $100 million was required as additional reserve based upon the study (keeping in mind the previous study required only $1 million dollars additional reserve), the effect on overall cash flow is not anywhere near enough to warrant a drop in market cap like we have seen over the past couple weeks.

    Just my thoughts, but I anticipate getting out of this stick in the next month with a decent profit.

  • Reply to

    septcall, what utter nonsense!

    by censored_george Jul 31, 2014 5:50 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Aug 1, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Let me correct that, I don't disagree whole heartedly as I'm still long on this stock...

    I disagree with the idea that its equal chance the crowd is right vs equal chance the crowd is wrong on any given subject.

  • Reply to

    septcall, what utter nonsense!

    by censored_george Jul 31, 2014 5:50 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Jul 31, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    mmmm, I would disagree with that whole heartedly.

    If you think about it, if everyone has bought into a stock and thinks its going higher and there's a sense of no one doubting it... then there's no one left to buy the shares.

    At that point the price falls until there is someone ready and willing to buy the shares.

    That's an oversimplified example, but I think it gets the point across.

  • the confidence in a rally from the members of this forum. That includes myself.

    I usually am against the vast majority on these yahoo boards and use it as a contrarian indicator. Maybe I'll learn the same lesson again here...

  • septcalls06 septcalls06 Jul 31, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    I agree, but I don't think we'll see a 20% correction yet. headlines have turned too negative too quickly.
    I think it's more likely that we see a 5% or less correction here (maybe even only a down day today) followed by buying next week and into Sept before we get a real selloff.

  • Reply to

    less than half of book value

    by russ101mos Jul 31, 2014 12:42 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Jul 31, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    I think it's managers wanting to go long having more fun... play the price down while buying more shares as people panic sell... wait till its holding then use those shares to play the price down inciting more panic sellers while they buy more shares...

    If you look at a volume by price plot, there's lower volume on the moves downward and then spikes as others sell out. It could be explained a number of different ways, this is just my theory. Fun game if you have the capital to do it!

  • Started buying $9 calls yesterday around 14 and again around 13.60... Will be buying more here.

    Even with the additional risk and unknown related to additional reserves, the other business have shown good to excellent growth. At worst I don't see this falling much lower than last years earnings of $1.15 which is a 21% reduction from initial 2014 estimates. I feel this is fairly conservative actually, but regardless it places the P/E at 11.5 as I write this.

    Entirely cheap here, which I love. This momentum will pause at some point and the other bargain hunters will jump in. I do not plan on holding my options longer than a couple weeks to a month, but I see this as low-risk.

  • Reply to

    Is "cutting chord" crowd increasing?

    by boar292hog Jun 26, 2014 2:48 PM
    septcalls06 septcalls06 Jul 8, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    I believe every one of your examples is streamable in HD... at the very least he superbowl and all of the world cup has been, I can't actually speak to the world series as I don't watch it any longer.

SPLS
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