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Auxilio Inc. Message Board

serendipity71 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 7, 2014 12:45 AM Member since: Mar 29, 2014
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  • serendipity71 by serendipity71 Dec 7, 2014 12:45 AM Flag

    Can't post the link but can be found via google. Award was voted on July 23 to be delivered 75 days from award date so assume this will show up early in Q4. They bought a Virtra 300 for $266,233.

  • Reply to

    ISNS will make a big move

    by this_is_a_deal Dec 2, 2014 6:08 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Dec 2, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    I like VTSI better than ISNS. It is probably the only pure play on firearm training simulators and they actually grow and make money.

  • Reply to


    by hopeful200 Dec 2, 2014 1:28 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Dec 2, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    keep in mind VTSI is going on what I think is 9 consecutive years of topline growth with an average of about 30%. We already know from at least one news story that their inquiries are increasing post Ferguson. Their orders last quarter significantly exceeded last years total revenue and that is likely with no impact from the Ferguson incident.

    The buying interest you are seeing is well justified. This is a story stock with a very low valuation, at an inflection point with very well run operatins and almost a decade of phenomenal growth behind them.

  • serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 26, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    I think most people are going to assume that all 2 million + shares are coming to market so it is going to be practical if not actual overhang. Still as someone who was critical of the outlook and MSA work due to the poor margins in that business I do think the fundamentals are starting to look brighter here.

    Non-MSA backlog is up now with decent profitability. If we can look at current revenue levels as a base then MSA is just a low margin bottom line sweetener.

    I did pick up a few token shares at 2.15 today. I am assuming there is share overhang and assuming we will see a bit more price deterioration. If we do I will probably be buying more.

    This isn't my favorite name but it does look like a solid value here and more so if we get closer to 2.

  • Reply to

    Ferguson bump

    by serendipity71 Nov 22, 2014 1:30 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 25, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Assuming that is sarcasm :) I did see that DGLY went nowhere today. I would guess that means the hype aspect for this story is over. For VTSI we will likely have to depend on the fundamentals which are already outstanding and should get better post-Ferguson. They still have a real solution to a real problem here and this incident should make their macro environment even better.

  • Reply to

    Ferguson bump

    by serendipity71 Nov 22, 2014 1:30 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 24, 2014 7:30 PM Flag

    I think we are largely making the same point. The focus here on body cameras is probably less important than the product Virtra provides. Saving lives and saving money is more important than being the winner in a he said she said. Situations like Ferguson can be prevented via the training a VTSI system provides, and I think it is safe to say that in retrospect Ferguson would have happily spent 5 times the cost of a Virtra simulator if it would have prevented the Michael Brown incident.

  • serendipity71 by serendipity71 Nov 22, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Anyone see the upcoming grand jury results in Ferguson drawing attention to this stock? A lot of focus has been on body cameras but it seems that an approach that focuses on training law enforcement on how to use force appropriately should be a heavy focus.

    You obviously want the video evidence to protect cops who acted appropriately but it seems at least as important to make sure they aren't shooting when they shouldn't be. The last thing a police department wants is a video showing a trigger happy officer using excessive force. To that end Virtra seems very complimentary with a move towards body cameras.

    Virtra simulators train police officers to make the right decision and body cameras prove that they did.

  • Reply to

    Earnings tpday or tomorrow?

    by miltonmartin301 Nov 13, 2014 10:10 AM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 13, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Technically they don't have to report at all on the pinks but historically they have stuck to those schedules. I was hoping for good news today. If they have a solid report or commentary it is a waste to do it on Friday when nobody would see it. It would be better to wait to Monday in that case.

    I don't have enormous expectations for this quarter but think they may have shipped that 2 million dollar order in which case they could hit topline numbers of 3 or 3.5 million.

    Either way it doesn't matter. We should have some big quarters ahead of us regardless of Q3 numbers.

  • Reply to

    Picked up a little more

    by srowe38 Nov 10, 2014 11:03 AM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 10, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    I added a little today too

  • Reply to

    Another new order

    by serendipity71 Nov 9, 2014 12:43 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Nov 10, 2014 12:13 AM Flag

    I don't have huge expectations for Q3 but think its possible for them to do 3 to 3.4 million. They had that 2 million dollar order from last year they talked about in July. If they recognize that revenue or most of it they will probably put up pretty solid numbers. If they didn't then they should in Q4 which would likely be a blowout quarter.

  • serendipity71 by serendipity71 Nov 9, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Guessing this is in the 300k range. Hoping we see a statement on October order levels. Even if we are seeing run rates in the 5-6 million range on a quarterly basis it is a game changer. At 5 million the company should be doing roughly a penny a share per quarter with a consistent history of 30% growth. In that case it would be undervalued at .80/share. I think we would be looking at more like a dollar.

    Remember they have already spent the money to ramp up capacity so they should have huge operating leverage on incremental revenue and police training is going to continue to be in the news.

    Can't post the link but google "RF157300 VIRTRA"

  • Reply to

    Micro Caps suffering from the Murphy touch

    by wwrp55 Oct 30, 2014 1:46 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Oct 30, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    The company grows every single year rain or shine and they have likely set a pretty high revenue floor with the massive order levels this quarter. We should see a .01 eps quarter fairly soon. That alone should give us a triple from the current price.

    If they get a PE more in-line with their growth profile and or uplist the upside is greater.

  • Reply to

    IACP Conference to be held 10/25-28

    by wwrp55 Oct 23, 2014 10:39 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Oct 28, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    I would be surprised. They will no doubt pick up some business but I doubt anyone was standing at the booth writing checks today. Seems like a process of gathering leads and converting them over the next 3-6 months. I am looking forward to seeing if we get another monthly sales announcement for October sometime around earnings in mid-November.

  • Reply to

    Benefiting from more police training

    by serendipity71 Oct 26, 2014 12:03 PM
    serendipity71 serendipity71 Oct 26, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Agree that it clearly should especially with the DOJ pushing more training for police departments. What I am struck by is that the existing order flow almost certainly hasn't been impacted in any meaningful way yet.

    I am expecting the current quarter to be solid. There is a decent chance they filled much or most of that 2 million dollar order from last April.

  • This article leads with the comment that Virtra is seeing increased order interest in the wake of Ferguson

    "A Valley police training company is receiving more product inquiries since the controversial police shooting in Ferguson, Mo."

    As I think about it though I have a feeling that we are not yet seeing this reflected in actual orders. The Brown shooting happened on August 9th. It didn't hit the national news cycle for a couple weeks. That gets them pretty much to the end of August. These tend to be long sales cycles and I doubt anyone rushed to place orders in a period of a couple weeks. August itself had 2 million in orders.

    So VTSI was likely seeing traction before Ferguson and the demand for additional training should juice demand going forward. They don't even need to sustain the 11 million in orders from last quarter. Revenues of half that would imply a many bagger from here especially if they uplist.

  • serendipity71 by serendipity71 Oct 22, 2014 9:26 PM Flag

    Don't think they announce these little ones but there really has been a massive ramp up in orders.

    I wonder how much of this is police departments recognizing that they may need additional training as well as body cameras?

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