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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

serendipitymoonlight 136 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 13, 2012 3:36 PM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Nov 13, 2012 3:36 PM Flag

    The fed has shot its last bullet. You can see the bonds are getting hammered in the portfolio thats why mreits are down

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Oct 22, 2012 11:26 AM Flag

    $22.50 calls, $2.40. 30 of them. The earnings report should be interesting. I expect Huge book value gains based on what I saw over at CYS. I also expect they moved some of their portfolio into nonagency now. $24 book estimate.

  • Reply to

    Please contribute:

    by onion1273 Oct 18, 2012 3:07 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Oct 20, 2012 1:06 PM Flag

    Okay, I need to tell you something important. So listen up. NCZ is a bad investment. DHF is okay but not great. There has been a lot of MREITS that have come and gone because of greed. They go to nonagency and get raped in the booty. You're best bet is to invest in the preferred stocks of the MREITS like CYS-A. 7.75% is a good, solid return in ANY market environment, minus the 1970s inflation days. PSEC is a really good BDC, I like PSEC, CYS, NLY, TWO, SLRC, CYS-A, AGNC, FSC, GAIN. Don't invest in bad investments just for the sack of diversification.

  • Reply to

    Wunderlich has a $15 price target now...

    by amehrich Oct 15, 2012 8:44 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Oct 16, 2012 12:17 PM Flag

    It will go into the 14's within the next 3 months. I have loaded up 40,000 shares + I have bought options and sold MTGE 22.50 options to pay for the options I bought in CYS.

    Reasons for my decision:

    NAV: The Current NAV is closer to $14

    Relative valuation: CYS is one of the best managed Mreits in terms of risk vs reward and is an internalized management team with a pay scale that is highly interchangeable and costs have been on the decline for many quarters now.

    Dividend was just reduced to 0.45, factoring in the effects of QE3, and now hedged even more for falling interest rates. Its very cost effective to purchase hedging for falling rates. Its the hedging for rates going higher that has the higher cost.

    Bottom line: The dividend is maintainable, and even has upside if we get a sell off in agencies and the yield moves higher.

    Based on all these things, we are much more likely to see an increase in the price per share to at least $14, maybe $15-16 if the spread continues to improve.

  • Reply to

    Don't worry about a SPO now

    by thadsilverfox Sep 18, 2012 2:17 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Sep 18, 2012 2:19 PM Flag

    They are not idiots. This stock is overpriced. Also... maybe we will get a secondary offering priced around $11?

  • Reply to

    Stifel Cuts PSEC to Sell

    by rlp2451 Sep 18, 2012 8:51 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Sep 18, 2012 12:56 PM Flag

    I would listen to Stifel... Call Troy from there and talk to him - he makes very good points and extensively follows the industry. PSEC is on a path back to 1x to 1.05x book. I would not be surprised to see an equity raise in the near term.

  • Reply to

    CFO buys shares

    by m123h78 Sep 11, 2012 5:39 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Sep 11, 2012 9:15 AM Flag

    Pocket change.. and to help drive up the stock for the next secondary.

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Sep 11, 2012 9:14 AM Flag

    The dividend is not maintainable. The stock is WELL ABOVE book. Its a recipe for disaster. I would buy this unless we were talking about buying it around $7.50 or less with its current fundamentals. I can't believe how crazy everyone is being... paying this much above book value... I see a dividend cut coming soon as it fails to pay its current distribution from NII.

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Sep 6, 2012 2:41 PM Flag

    There is a investor conference coming up this month in which they will pitch it... Large $ offering . FYI.

    I have no stake in AGNC, and plan not to buy or sell any within the next 3 months.

  • Reply to

    MTGE WILL IT HIT 25.50

    by q45mm Sep 5, 2012 3:45 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Sep 5, 2012 9:19 PM Flag

    I represent about 3 to 10% of the volume everyday as of late. I am having a lot of fun trading mtge, making some good money doing so. I have actually caused this stock to bottom out at various points. Like today I didn't let the stock fall below $24.80.. (except one order i saw the ask fall to $24.78 and then I put in a 5000 shares order at $24.80 to keep it from falling) So I have been successful in controlling the price per share as of late - of course that could easily change if there is enough volume. I have about $600,000 in capital which i use to trade in and out of mtge, (of course not all at once). I see a lot of resistance at the $24.90 mark - so much so that I wouldn't dare try to push the price above that by myself. That resistance could be taken out on the ECB and fed news coming up over the next two days if we can get a pick up in buy side volume. But for all you out there with some extra working capital - in case you haven't noticed... the stock price is extremely easy to manipulate. What we really need to get this stock above $25 is a dividend announcement of $0.90. I expect we will get some news around the 11th of September. After the news I would expect a run up to the $25.30 - $25.75 range. That trading range would be in place until the ex-dividend date - then I would expect the price would head up to the $25.00 to $25.50 range. FOLLOWED BY AN SPO.. dropping the price to $24.25. You can take what I am saying to the bank on the price movement - not because I have all that much effect on the longer term price, but because I know how to trade this stock very well and I know how it behaves. I may not be 100% on the numbers, but i get close, and I don't just buy or sell at XYZ price.. I always trade in smaller blocks, either averaging down by purchasing more or selling to net a profit. Well thats my little rant.. For all you buy and hold guys - I wouldn't sell anything until it goes ex-dividend and runs up past the $25 level. Because that is when management will want to SPO. I bet that SPO comes within 5 trading days after breaching above the $25 level post ex-dividend.

  • Reply to

    MTGE WILL IT HIT 25.50

    by q45mm Sep 5, 2012 3:45 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Sep 5, 2012 9:19 PM Flag

    I represent about 3 to 10% of the volume everyday as of late. I am having a lot of fun trading mtge, making some good money doing so. I have actually caused this stock to bottom out at various points. Like today I didn't let the stock fall below $24.80.. (except one order i saw the ask fall to $24.78 and then I put in a 5000 shares order at $24.80 to keep it from falling) So I have been successful in controlling the price per share as of late - of course that could easily change if there is enough volume. I have about $600,000 in capital which i use to trade in and out of mtge, (of course not all at once). I see a lot of resistance at the $24.90 mark - so much so that I wouldn't dare try to push the price above that by myself. That resistance could be taken out on the ECB and fed news coming up over the next two days if we can get a pick up in buy side volume. But for all you out there with some extra working capital - in case you haven't noticed... the stock price is extremely easy to manipulate. What we really need to get this stock above $25 is a dividend announcement of $0.90. I expect we will get some news around the 11th of September. After the news I would expect a run up to the $25.30 - $25.75 range. That trading range would be in place until the ex-dividend date - then I would expect the price would head up to the $25.00 to $25.50 range. FOLLOWED BY AN SPO.. dropping the price to $24.25. You can take what I am saying to the bank on the price movement - not because I have all that much effect on the longer term price, but because I know how to trade this stock very well and I know how it behaves. I may not be 100% on the numbers, but i get close, and I don't just buy or sell at XYZ price.. I always trade in smaller blocks, either averaging down by purchasing more or selling to net a profit. Well thats my little rant.. For all you buy and hold guys - I wouldn't sell anything until it goes ex-dividend and runs up past the $25 level. Because that is when management will want to SPO. I bet that SPO comes within 5 trading days after breaching above the $25 level post ex-dividend.

  • Reply to

    Kinda Cute

    by headhunter80904 Aug 17, 2012 9:09 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 17, 2012 12:03 PM Flag

    Lmao Jtrader.

    Loved the post. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    taking my lumps

    by reikreik Aug 17, 2012 10:35 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 17, 2012 11:05 AM Flag

    My advice:

    Stop trading MTGE on a daily basis.

    MTGE is poised for a run up past $25 over the next 2 months. Sit back - relax and enjoy the ride.

  • Reply to

    24,500 shares bought by me today =)

    by serendipitymoonlight Aug 16, 2012 6:04 PM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 17, 2012 9:44 AM Flag

    Yes, I believe could be setting up for a sell off. But I believe MTGE will hold up well in this environment and the dividend is maintainable. The mtg reit has relatively low leverage. The dividend run up should begin soon enough and we'll catch a bounce above $25 over the next 2 months. MTGE is also run by the same management as AGNC, which trades at a much larger premium. Strangely so, because in addition to MTGE being a hybrid Mtg reit with 95% of its assets currently in agency paper - MTGE's portfolio has lower CPRs and will have an easier time maintaining the distribution.

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Aug 16, 2012 6:04 PM Flag

    Cost average is 24.133373

    I'm so happy =)


    Estimated income: $88,200 gross


    Yes, its my entire portfolio (except for 13k in cash) Balls of steel =P

  • Reply to

    EXPECTING DJI 15000 BY MID NOVEMBER

    by joeyfalcone320 Aug 13, 2012 8:44 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 15, 2012 11:22 AM Flag

    Oh and Obama wins the election by the way.

  • Reply to

    EXPECTING DJI 15000 BY MID NOVEMBER

    by joeyfalcone320 Aug 13, 2012 8:44 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 15, 2012 11:21 AM Flag

    The DOW will close the year at 11,762.68.

    Sorry.

  • Reply to

    market sell off

    by serendipitymoonlight Aug 15, 2012 11:16 AM
    serendipitymoonlight serendipitymoonlight Aug 15, 2012 11:17 AM Flag

    Looking to buy PSEC under $10.

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Aug 15, 2012 11:16 AM Flag

    11,700 by years end is my best guess. VIX near 14. That wont last.

  • serendipitymoonlight by serendipitymoonlight Aug 14, 2012 11:45 AM Flag

    There would be good volume at that level and its disappointing that there isn't $11.00 puts.

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