I think this will hit 1.90 and then retrace back to .80s before it is ready to take 1.90 off and move higher. I know I will get a lot of thumbs down. But that's what my TA says. I hope I am wrong but I do not think Iwill be. I have been in a quite a few stocks that ran like crazy and eventually they come to WMA(30) on the weekly chart for support. If by chance, I am right I will bump up this post to remind fellow longs. GL
ACAD has completed phase 3 and waiting to file NDA. Parkinson's market peak revenue is 4 bill and its MC is 4.8 Bill as of today. People are hoping for the Mcap to increase to 3.5X to 14 bill.
With AVXL assuming peak revenue of $15bill which is $92 pps fully diluted. With a 3.5X multiple Mcap could increase to 45 bill which is $322 pps. Crazy huh? I know what you are thinking. It never works out like this. May be this is the one?
Preliminary measured Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Cogstate scale changes are consistent with the observed trend of the cognitive EEG/ERP effect. The safety profile of ANAVEX 2-73 during Phase 2a appears consistent with the Phase 1 data; additional clinical data of the trial will be presented at future medical meetings.
Additional data will be presented at the future (as opposed to Final data) makes me think they will do another pr. Not sure what month but seems like they will do one more pr before the final data.
I personally have not seen buyout premiums in excess of 200-300%. Somebody correct me if that is not correct. So even if the stock runs to 2-3 before buyout. I do not see anything more than 7-8, which is like 1.2 bill mc fully diluted. To be bought out at 20, we must be at 7-8 on our own. Just my thoughts.
I get what you are saying but FDA cannot grant an accelerated approval before beginning of 2017 when P2 ends.
Bourbon, regarding the timing. My understanding is Part A ends by end of this year and Part B is for 52 weeks (well, this will apply for the extension, which they will most probably get), so wouldn't the part B end by end of 2016 or beginning of 2017?
I agree but for a big pharma few billion is chump change. I would rather pay 3 billion for a drug that works vs 400 million for a drug that might work.
If all goes well, mcap should be around 20B or more 1 or 2 years after approval of the drug. So more like 6 years to reach to $120 pps
Do you think a potential acquirer would wait for AVXL to complete part b of phase 2? or would the results of phase 2 part A would be enough proof of efficacy and safety.
Thanks meh for sharing and the advise. I have been burned like a gazillion times when I average up in a bio and that is why I am nervous. Science seems very good so that does help my case of averaging up.
Whats your avg cost here. I am in .30s with a small position so if I add big I will be in mid to high.40s. Not sure what to do. One support is .54 and the next is .45. Should I wait to add? What are your thoughts? Thx