tsk, tsk, tsk - logical rigor and intellectual consistency are but trifles to be traded away for the slightest of political advantages. That's rule # 1 for both the demopublicans and the republocrats. It will remain rule # 1 of both parties until voters quit rewarding those that follow rule # 1.
Yes, by all means let's assume that poor widows and orphans would be buying the shares of non-producing junior gold miners and are therefore liable to be unfairly punished by being exposed to opinions with which you disagree.
The market disagrees with itself over time. Seriously, is there a good reason to think that the markets opinion right now is pertinent over anything but short time frames?
I would have thought gold would have moved up quite a bit more strongly after the tepid economic news of the day, particularly the news from Europe. Surprising I think.
Very nice to see they will be drilling the Island zone in 2015 at the Phoenix project. Historically, some very good drill intercepts from there.
Also, very interesting that the predicted grade for F2 is less than half the average recovered grade from Red Lake outside the Red Lake mine high grade zone. Bodes very well I think for a large upside surprise in actual production grade.
And, just to be clear, wolf should have been telling people about the continuing uptrend in gold because gold went several hundred dollars an ounce higher after that. The last day RBY was over 5 was 5/2/11. Gold that day was 1575 and gold subsequently trader over 1900 around 5 months later. Thanks for pointing out how prescient wolf's advice was at the time.
It need not be all about production. Demand can be flat or growing less robustly than previously. That would indicate growth problems that will mute or degrade the economic performance of companies going forward. I think both; i.e., production and slowing growth are in play.
You are right about one thing. You do have a small amount of intelligence.
No, I think gold goes lower before it bottoms and as such that miners shares will get cheaper than they are currently. I'm not short any miners so it's not a very strong opinion. I will say that the 1193 fib level has been tested three times now and it has bounced up all three times. The first two tests of 1193 saw fairly short term rallies before the decline resumed. I think that is what will happen this time too and I think 1193 will fail the fourth time it's tested but I could easily be wrong.
Actually, if you practice trade discipline, you only have to be right about 55% of the time to make good money trading. I think it's only a fool that works only from TA or from fundamental analysis. TA is, in my opinion, good for short term stuff. Fundamental analysis is better for longer term positions. That's why I own RBY shares based on a fundamental analysis that the market is wrong about the grade at which RBY will produce from F2 and simulataneously have a short position in gold via GLD puts for the short term.
The short term is, to my mind, driven by opinion and since opinions are summarized as price action while in the longer term prices reflect value.
But, far be it from me to complain if you want to take a dogmatic approach. A man once said that the true test of intelligence is the ability to hold two apparently contradictory notions in mind at the same time by seeing the truth in both. That would explain your lack of ability to understand what TA is good for.
It settled on the COMEX at 1192.90. You are referring to the spot close that day.
Well, if by "wanted to" you mean I chose not to use interday price action in my analysis then obviously you are correct. But, it's not at all unusual for closing prices to be used for TA purposes. It's actually pretty unusual for anyone to use the lowest price (or highest price) interday for analysis that isn't short term oriented.
The fib levels were calculated off daily closes so that's the price I use. What you can't stand is that wolf was right about the 1193 level being an important attractor.
I don't think this will happen. It would have to be an arms length transaction and I don't see how it could be one given the access to data that David Adamson has had. I think it would be quite improper to do a deal like this.
Went long some Dec 118 puts on the GLD this AM. Like I said, I could easily be wrong so they are on a very short leash.
If you look at a 30 day gold chart on Kitco, you will find that the lowest price shown, on a daily basis, is almost exactly 1193. It may have gone lower intraday but in general I don't use intraday charts for longer term analysis. If you wish to do so, you of course may.
Guess 1193 wasn't such a meaningless number after all. The real question though is what happens to gold from here. When 1290ish became unstable, I was pretty sure that gold was going down from there but it detoured to the upside for a while before it dropped again down to the fib level at 1193.
I think the same thing is happening here. So, I'm going to look for an opportunity to buy some puts on gold but if I do that I'm going to keep them on a very short leash because I could be wrong.
Hard to see these sales as anything other than negative. Not selling my shares but I am adjusting the price I want to buy at down a little.
Here's why shale oil stocks are tanking
Could lead to less production from shale plays which could put a bid under oil. Probably over a middling time frame though since depletion rates can be 80% - 90% per year for these wells meaning they have to keep drilling new wells to keep production up.
well, as to the fundamentals, I think of the fundamental reason to own gold is as insurance either by owning physical or owning portion of a producer. I don't think that has changed much. I choose to own portion of a company that will be a producer but I have far more invested in real estate in one form or another than I do in gold.
Actually, that's a pretty serious question. I think I know why but probably don't know how. Jazvened focuses in on a single facet of the market; i.e., that the price discovery mechanism is largely one based on opinion. I think he thinks that opinion is the only thing that drives the market. So, for him it's simply a question of what will people think. So, from a cynical perspective, he figures most people are stupid and will buy the official line that deficts are getting better and that's what counts.
The bad part is that he's right and most people are pretty stupid. So, it's an open question whether people will or won't figure things out. If they don't, he's probably right right up until things running off the rails.