The market is in a generous mood with regards IOC.
Personally, I was dead wrong in my assessment of how the market would react to Mulacek retiring. I viewed it as a red flag and felt we were setting up for another swoon like last Fall when they surprised us with selling 50% of EA to the government.
His leaving makes little sense to me. If the deal is imminent and the bids are good, why leave? I concluded the bids were low and they needed to reboot the process.
The market interpreted Mulacek retiring more in the vein of removing a malignant tumor. IOC is now cancer free, or so it seems.
You are right; the final chapter has yet to be written, but as it stands the bulls are in control. The market is putting zero pressure on the company to announce a deal. Paulson and Chandler are piling in and shorts everywhere are scrambling for cover. With no governor on expectations the imagination can run wild in terms of valuation $150, $200, $400 , $1,000.
I remember some one saying a while back that Soro's energy analyst had been hired by Paulson. So this makes some sense to me.
Also Chandler and Paulson were both in Sino Forest regrettably.
Paulson obviously , is the whale WA was referring to back in January when I talked to him.
Haven't had a chance to look at NVDQ yet.
If you are interested in another extraordinarily cheap Chinese stock take a look at CYD. They've pretty much discounted WWIII in that stock.
"- another company selling products nobody needs "
Actually, they are giving them away for free.
The change in revenue recognition for Feiliu from gross to net of developer fees, while conservative from a revenue standpoint, served to boost gross margins.
Evidently this wasn't made clear and appeared to catch the analysts off guard.
New presentation on the company's web site dated May 2013.
It shows just how exciting this growth story is.
Built in growth, high barriers to entry, wildly under served market.
Company forecasting $33 mil in adjusted EBITDA, yes, that includes development expense, for calendar 2013. Growing at high teens. Revenue growth high twenties.
Conservatively, if we put a 10 multiple on that I'm coming up with $20 a share and still only trade at 1.7x sales.
Yes, I've been buying since last Wednesday, both common and in the money October calls.
Still working on some things, but there were no obvious red flags the first time through the 10-K.
It appears to me for all the world that this is a GROWTH STOCK trading like a deep cyclical.
The growth is already built in with the Beijing rehab hospital coming on line in June and the Guangzhou hospital in 2014 - 2015.
Could be a long way to go if this is the case.
Do you know what the revenue mix is between patients with insurance and those who pay out of pocket?
In other words how much of their revenue comes from wealthy Chinese who can pay for the care out of pocket?
Ran across this on the HLF board. The Carl referred to is Carl Ichan. I have no idea of whether he said this or not, but found it ammusing anyway.
Old Carl pretty much said it like it is about short sellers.....TOP 10 REASONS:
I have always said the same.... Top 10 Reasons to be a short seller: 1. Does not have real money to buy a stock. 2. Thinks any negative news is a total failure because they themselves are. 3. Constantly root for failure because misery loves company. 4. Blame everthing/everyone for their own demise. 5. Trust nobody because they do not trust themselves. 6. Make a case on 100% lies without any proven documentation. 7. Never accept blame or failure so they lack "wisdom." 8. Self-centered angry people who hate the world and themselves. 9. Will never be rich because they are pessimistic & foolish. 10. Think they can outsmart even the greatest of minds......& 11. PRIMARILY NARCISSISTIC!! ALL you have to do is read their posts as evident....
Thanks for the reply.
What metrics / ratios do you use to value the company?
I would love to hold the stock for 5 or 10 years, but what do you think it is worth today and say 1 year out?
Also, given the private pay nature of the business model, what companies are you using for comps?
Hi, I'm new here.
This appears to be a compelling growth story selling at a very cheap price.
I'm getting a forward Enterprise Value/ Adjusted EBITDA of less than 7 times.
Management is forecasting Adjusted EBITDA growth of mid to high teens and sales growth in the twenties.
It trades at reasonable levels of book value and sales; one and a half times. Virtually 0 net debt.
Any analyst coverage?
I need to spend some time with the 10K but any thoughts would be helpful.