I was impressed with this man, but I also know that disagreements among powerful board members often result in bruised egos. I would expect to see a major press release soon regarding the strategic direction of the Company. It may even be good news. We'll see.
This is a major event for the Company, mainly because it offers validation in the scientific community. Reimbursement will always be an issue for hybrid medical/drug devices. However, they may be able to sell the Company to a strategic partner at this point. BTW, Kopliwitz was voted one of the best psychiatrists in New York Magazine. Perhaps he should pay more attention to his own medical specialty.
Yesterday, the stockopened strong and then corrected in the afternoon. All this means, is that there are some residual sellers. The Company has to perform with exits in place before momentum can be sustained. The percentgae move since it's low of 2.60 is still impressive. Volume precedes price action and most posters would agree that volume in this stock has certainly picked up.
Lets' be fair. I've been openly critical of management and don't need to be misquoted. I said that it's been selling under NAV for the past few years and I never gave a price target of $12-18. I'm not in love with this stock, but believe it's good for a trade. It's selling around $1 higher than last year's low, so some could have made money. I'm holding for now as I anticipate some moves before June's hareholder Mtg. which is always a circus.
Not necessarily in order: Adesto, Metabolon, D-Wave and HzO. Some of the others might be acquired as private companies. This stock has been selling under NAV for the past few years, so a relief rally is to be expected. We may be at the beginning of a breakout. Historcially, this stock has normally traded at 1.5X - 4X NAV. Now that small caps are enjoying a bounce, along with a reawakening of the small cap IPO market, TINY should follow suit.
That doesn't mean that it isn't in the works. One or more companies may be emerging from stealth mode. As soon as we see a registration statement, I'll bet that the stock pierces $4. The people who are involved in these deals have a knack for anticipating price movements, simply because they're in control.
You're correct in that ENUM is a a major holding in their NAV. However, this is an odd stock, barely listed and really a long-term hold. We may see some movement, if they can get permanent financing or a partnership. Without these binary events, the ENUM's share price will languish with no exit in sight for TINY. The real interest is in their four mature investments, namely DWave, Adesto, Metabolon etc.
They're establishing a registry of patients that will lead tob oth a publication in a major journal and greater reimbursement. Some Americans with HCC who have the financial resources will be taking medical holidays to the EU and pay themselves for the treatment. The publication is the key event.
I liked DEPO over the past few years and now I see it's a momentum stock. What I don't like is that the pain market is getting increasingly crowded. I see new approvals, new generics, sleezy pain management doctors and a nation of addicts. Mothers' Little Helper was bad enough, but these opioids will ruin your life. I was encouraged by their previous relationship with JNJ on Nucynta and their ability to get the deal done, but I do think it was too pricey in this saturated environment. However, I'll give them a chance to prove themselves by ramping revenues in the future.
You/re right about the difference between the 2 Qs valuation. I don't know if the Valuation Committee changed their guidelines, but in the past they priced any public position with a lockup or lacking an event driven exit at 80% or less of market value. Stock is somewhat active today. It appears as if a buyer is testing resistance. My only question is: where's the next S-1.
I doubt that TINY's management values ENUM at even 80% of the share price (even though it's public). They have a controlling interest, i some respects, so that stock will never be marked to market prior to an exit. Moreover, the only thing that will move the NAV needle will be markups, or IPOs of their top 4 candidates. I expect all of them to go public this year.
That's a sign of rotating ownership. This stock has been public for over 25 years so many old holders are furstrfated. I wouldn't be suprised is management isn't frustrated too since they have benefited much from their generous stock based compensation. I doubt they can stay independent beyond the next year or two. They would actually do really well if they were folded into something that was better capitalized and that's partly why I'km in this stock.
Issuing a fairness opinion letter (which probably cost shareholders $150K) on a highly dilutive offering that represents a 50% discount to cash for shares (plus cheap warrants to boot) will sully their reputation. We need an actavist shareholderr team to bring these facts to light.
Nice technical analysis. However, the volume on the calls at $5 strike also suggest that we may have some IPOs within the next 6 - 8 months, which changes the entire landscape.
Got a vote of confidence from today's 13-D Filings -- two hedge funds have accumulagted 5%+ each. Goitta love that herd mentality.
The Company is obviously undercapitalized and the exits ofte pay for their overhead. That's why I think they should merge with another business dewvelopment company and save on overhead. However, everyone wants to protect their jobs and restricted stock, so only an actavist investor can force a change. They've insulated themselves with top Skadden Arps lawyers, who will protect their domain at shareholder expense.
Nevertheless, they have investments in some good companies and a deal flow to match (if only they had the cash to match their expertise). I look at it now as more of a trading stock, anticipating some nice exits this year that could bring the share price back above $5., at which point they might get some institutional interest.
Some may not want to be around earnings call. I think we'll see a nice top line number with the price increases. Lazanda is a real sleeper which may surprise.
TINY had a nice stake in Biovex before it was taken over by Amgen. If the drug is approved, TINY will get additional milestones and royalties. This is really high tech biotech and it's tough to call the outcome. Their using a virus to trick melanocytes from becoming carcinogenic.