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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

sfvip2319 133 posts  |  Last Activity: May 13, 2015 2:11 PM Member since: Sep 17, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    I will buy another 1,000 shares tomorrow with my SDLP dividends!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    These message boards are useless

    by jnk0mail May 13, 2015 10:52 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    What is interesting is that this board has three times as much!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    As I said, NADL mostly likely will not to bankrupt as it is 70% owned by SDRL. SDRL just took over the debt risks. NADL pays a 1% fee, which is a steal!

    We just have to wait until oil hits 70. A long wait but who knows.

    Everybody is wrong in trying to predict oil price.

    All I know is we cant have oil selling below overall world wide average production cost of 60.

    With inflation, 70 is not that far away.

    Just me thinking.

    If the Russia deal goes through, we will win big time!!!
    Under the deal, SDRL will drop its ownership down from 70% to 51%.

    Russia wants a 30% ownership.

    THAT MEANS THE PUBLIC OWNERSHIP OF 30% WILL HAVE TO DROP TO 20%!!!!!

    Forced purchase!! Love it. They can issue new shares as an alternative. That would be OK too. More capital is always good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    I have. I bought 1,000 shares as an option play. May be too early, but just a small sum.

    I read that Germany, Russia and US are trying to work out the Ukraine issue.

    If so, sanctions on Russia may be lifted. Don't bank on it yet, but talk has started.

    No one wants war. I don't think Russia started this whole mess. It all started when someone (and we don't know who) killed a protestor two years back. Could be the West, could be Russia, who knows.

    This is why SDRL and NADL are moving up faster than SDLP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    Yes.

    It will be a long time before we see 70 oil.
    At 1.65, look at it as an open ended option.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    If we want more leverage, we may consider our sister company NADL.
    Boy did this poor company dropped. It will need oil price to go up to $70 for this company to make it.
    If the Russia deal goes through, this baby will rocket up!
    it will not go bankrupt as SDRL owns 70%, but it can be a long wait for oil to hit $70.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 13, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    That is exactly my point.

    General investors do not recognize this yet.
    Institutional investors need to wait to confirm price of oil.

    Once they recognize this, the fair dividends rate will be 10% thus my forecast price of $20.

    I can really sleep at night now as I think the oil price will be around 65 by dec. 2016, above breakeven point to produce offshore..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nonsense

    by mehran.mohammed May 12, 2015 4:15 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 12, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    It is not that we lagged behind SDRL.
    we are fairly priced until investors realize our value.

    SDRL is three time as leveraged as SDLP. It will move three time as much as us.

    The oil price picture looks very good. I expect we will hit 20 late this year.
    Just collect your dividend and enjoy life.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Resort Fees killing CZR Properties

    by ucxu3 Apr 29, 2015 10:29 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 11, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    This is real bad marketing. It will back fire on them.

    If you are diamond or 7 stars in the case of Harrah's, you still do not need to pay the resort fee.

    To me, it is tacky to ask your guests to pay the resort fee if the room is comped. We all know that hotel revenue is hotel revenue regardless of the label. This is like telling the guests that Harrah's will buy you dinner, but have to charge you for the use of the knife.

    I will not go back to Harrah's again. We have choices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Bass Ackwards Reaction to Earnings

    by valubyer May 11, 2015 7:30 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 11, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Don't shot the messenger.

    This baby is heading back to 16.50, where she belongs right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Bass Ackwards Reaction to Earnings

    by valubyer May 11, 2015 7:30 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 11, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Don't shot the messenger!

    Some of you still missed the point.

    The drop in price is that more and more people realized that at around 17, the stock is over-valued! This is the reason! The reality is that the fat gas gross profit margin will not be repeated is the wake up call!

    I hate to say it but I told you so. I suggested sell your shares at 17 and buy back. Know the range!

    Now, the stock is a BUY BUY BUY.

    The stock is worth about 15.50 to 16.50, in my opinion. 2Q earnings will be fine, not great. It will not drop like some of the analysts forecasted. Yes, the drop In gas gross profit margin is big, but the profit will be offset by the non-gas gross profit margin and newly acquired travel centers (in the past 5 years),

    Buy below 15.50 and you will be extremely happen in a few months. Buy around 16 and you will still happy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC? pfffffft, just look at the numbers.

    by bwisheldon May 7, 2015 11:33 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 8, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Just bought at 15.10.

    Will sell to you at 17.

    Thank you in advance, respectfully.

    Don't shot me!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets look at 2Q 2015

    by sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:47 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 8, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    The big guys took the price down by 2.00 and this is nuts.
    It will take about a week to repair the damage.

    I still think the base price is 16.50. I will buy wholesale below this number. I will sell retail above this number. I will definitely sell at 17 and above and then replenish my shares at a lower price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets look at 2Q 2015

    by sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:47 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 8, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    The other keys to look for are the non-gas gross profit margin and contributions from newly acquired TRAVEL CENTERS.

    I love TA because I look at it as a restaurant business more than gas. The gross profit margin on this business is creeping upward! This will save 2q 2015 as the margin for 2014 was really bad.

    The other is the newly acquired travel centers. Finally they are contributing big time. Why sell the property? They are contributing now.

    I don't have a crystal ball. But it is very easy to look at the financial data for these two items and take a guess on gas profit margin. I can do a better job than most analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets look at 2Q 2015

    by sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:47 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 8, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    It will go higher than 17 from time to time as this is a thinly traded stock with high beta. But I don't think it will go higher than 17 consistently this year. There is an extremely good chance the stock will go up to 20 next year. Why? Same thing. Gas gross profit margin. No one can predict oil price or gas profit margin for a long period.

    so the key is know the stock trading range and sell when the price is higher than norm.

    Unlocking real estate value is bunch of BS. The company has been doing this as a practice. I am not an insider and I don't know, but I think TA bought these travel centers because they were bargain sales. Keep them and turbo charge income in future years.

    This is an extremely good stock for long term hold. Yes, sales will be down, but gas gross profit margin will creep up. one or two cent increase will pop the stock. Just have the disciple to take gains.

    Look at yesterday's drop! I recognize this and have always been patience to wait so I can buy at the lower range.

    By the way, the UK elections are set early, employment numbers are good. Greece will kick the can down the road, so there road is clear to take some risks.

    For a short trade, there is a 100% chance of making a profit if buy below 15.50.
    It was the big guys that sold and brought down the price. I think they are wrong most of the time. It happened during the phone conference. This is an indication that the analysts did not think things through and just focus on the gas margin!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC? pfffffft, just look at the numbers.

    by bwisheldon May 7, 2015 11:33 AM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 8, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    How is it that you are so immature and wet behind the ears?

    For your information, there are plenty of information (PUBLIC) we all can read and research. I am not predicting but sharing with you my studied opinions.

    I do not have a crystal ball and I never claimed to know the future.

    The only correct statement you made is that you realize there is a normal swing in stock price. My contribution to you and others is to share my range with you so you too can buy low and sell high.

    It is clear that you range is way too high! You have to admit my range is more correct. So, I buy at my lower range, and sell to you at my higher range which is your lower range. I need you my friend, respectfully..

    The good news is that in the long run, TA will go up and you will make money too, just not as much as me, respectfully..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets look at 2Q 2015

    by sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:47 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:58 PM Flag

    2Q 2014 non-gas gross profit margin is 53.7%
    1Q 2015 non-gas gross profit margin is 55.6%
    So we will be comparing 2015 55.6% to 2014 53.7%
    There is a gain of 2%
    Lets assume sales is same for both years.
    There is a gain in net income of 8.1 millions.

    I estimate that the newly acquired travel centers will continue to contribute to the bottom line as indicated in the 1Q report. There is a gain In net income of $5.0 MM

    So friends, my prediction is 2Q 2015 will be fine The drop in the gas gross profit margin is not good news, but it will not bring down the earning of 2Q 2015.

    Load up friends! My range is 15.50 to 16.50. Sell above 17. Below 15.50 is a big bonus.

    To be honest, I don't feel that the CEO sounded worry at all when he mentioned this.
    i.,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sfvip2319 by sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 11:47 PM Flag

    Don't shot the messenger.

    Gas Gross Profit Margin:
    2Q 2013 gas gross profit margin is 17.23 cents
    2Q 2014 gas gross profit margin is 19.16 cents
    So we will be comparing 2015 17.23 cents to 2014 19.16 cents. There is a shortfall of 2 cents.
    Let assume volume is same for 2015 and 2014.
    The sales and income shortfall is huge! = $10.3 millions

    This is why the stock price dropped so much today!. It went from gain of $1.50 to a loss of as much as 60 cents after the conference call
    .
    However, the smart analysts did not complete the picture.

    I have always said that the increase gas gross profit is not repeatable, thus my lower stock price than most of you.

    I have always said that I would look to non-gas gross profit margin for a turbo charge. This baby will super charge 2Q 2015!!.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1Q earnings is good.

    2Q earnings will be fine even with 2013 gas gross profit margin. 0.5% increase in non-gas gross profit margin will more than make up the shortfall.

    We clearly are in an oversold situation because of Europe.

    Look for stock to recover to 15.50 today

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My personal trucker survey

    by mindgame380 May 7, 2015 1:33 PM
    sfvip2319 sfvip2319 May 7, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    You are right on.

    Instead, I would suggest HPT, the landlord and 10% owner of TA.

    HPT is down now because of interest rate hike fear. Current yield is 6.75% but with stock appreciation potential. In my opinion, this will be a 31 stock shortly after the interest rate fear.

    I also own both TANN and TANO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ADBE
80.56+0.95(+1.19%)May 21 4:00 PMEDT