Good grief. You know... if your short, you should just cover and lock in some of your gains at these disgusting prices. Why so greedy with this stock trying to squeeze out a few more cents to the downside? If I had been short (I wish!), I'd be covering and be long gone or.... gone long by now!
Sickening. Think of how much electricity could of been generated! With the price of oil down... these facilities are going to have to find a way to cut costs. Generating electricity and either using it for there own (to offset cost) or selling it to the electric company will be one way. I can sure think of some nice technology that has a nice proven record of doing that with a very reasonable pay-pack time. Yes... wouldn't it be funny if the very thing that has been crushing Capstone lately (i.e. the idea by the masses that CPST orders from oil companies may dry up for a while do to low oil price) actually spurs additional sells!!! I've learned over the years that reality often does the opposite of what the majority of people think. I'm not sure why that is. You'd think the combined thinking power of all those brains would make the right choices! Oh well... as always, time will tell if this stock goes to 50 cents or 6 dollars this year.
I've always thought that Wrightspeed is going to be a huge catalyst for Capstone. Capstone and Wrightspeed seem to have a good working relationship and Ian Wright seems like a very capable and smart person who has VERY high global goals for Wrightspeed. I believe there are some deals in the works with Wrightspeed that will propel that company into the spotlight (and Capstone right along with it). Remember last year when PLUG got a deal to provide some fuel cells for forklifts... that moved PLUG's market cap up 10x. A large Wrightspeed deal could easily do the same for Capstone (especially from these depressed prices). I think the market is thinking shaie oil production will be slowed for a while (even though everyone knows oil will go up again!) and they won't be making large capital purchases (i.e. not buying Capstone turbines). Since the oil industry has been a big portion of Capstone sells, this has had a huge weight on the stock. Time will tell if this scenario even plays out. But if Wrightspeed has a deal in the works (i..e reason for relocating company?), CPST stock could be in for a nice PLUG like gain! Question for shorts, those selling, or those sitting on the fence... if Wrightspeed gets some big orders from big customers, would that not be HUGE for Capstone? if not, what is your reasoning? Personally, I'm trying to look at clues from Wrightspeed (and others) and make my investment choices from that.
And you don't think people who have held this stock for many many years have done a ton of "rethinking" by now? As much as I think Capstone has come a LONG way with the current management in the last 6 or so years, sitting here a few cents away from a 10 year low is pretty earth shattering to shareholders. When you compare Capstone today to what it was 10 years ago (TEN YEARS!!!)... there is no comparison. The potential of this company NOW is what people hopped for back when the stock was 90$. Yes... there are 10 times as many shares now, but looking at the market cap. Capstone is truly absurdly priced. But... that said, sitting at a 10 year low is not deniable. I do think the board needs to find a larger company that can propel this company to the levels it could achieve given the resources, etc. of a larger company. It won't be the $10 that so many have hoped for for so long. It's truly sad to say, but at this point $1.50 to $2 would be welcome by most! Given the huge loss carry-forward that is on the books, the acquiring company would reap about a $1 a share in tax savings literally making the acquisition of Capstone be for about a buck or less. Truly amazing by any measure! If the board doesn't want to sell out, then they need to come up with SOMETHING to shake things up. This has gone on for far to long! Maybe they do need to replace all the upper management. I honestly don't know. But sitting on their hands and just doing nothing year in and year out just isn't cutting it.
You ask why the thumbs down? Maybe the name calling ("Donut") demonstrates to readers the maturity level of the poster. Personally, when I read something and demonstrates 3rd grade behavior, I move on. It doesn't matter what else is said... if I generally agree with the rest of the post or not. I give immaturity as much respect and importance as it deserves.
A poison pill does not stop a cooperative buyout. If the board is for it, they could sell CPST for less than the poison pill. $3 or even $4 seems very reasonable for a buyer IF CPST demonstrates to the buyer that improved margins and profitability is truly right around the corner. The buyer gets about a buck a share back in tax savings by taking ownership of the huge loss carry forward that CPST has on the books (lowering the effective buy out price to $2 or $3). Later this year if profitability becomes a reality, I suspect a buyer would need to pay more (at lower risk of course). Of course on the other hand if the next couple quarters don't demonstrate what the street wants to see we'll languish here under a buck for a good while longer. I do believe though that CPST will continue to nudge margins in the right direction. When the C250 comes on-line margins will take a really nice bump up which should by almost every measure make us profitable (finally!) and the nightmare of being a CPST stock owner will end once and for all. History is full of examples of people making a bundle of money by buying stocks when beaten down. If CPST continues the general trend it's had for a number of years (yes with the exception of a couple minor bumps) we'll be fine (in fact MORE than fine!).
Honestly who cares? I'm pretty sure that possibility is priced into the stock. I mean really... if your here talking about it do you think such an event would be a huge surprise? Even a 10 for 1 reverse would not change the market cap one penny. What is it now like 240 million? CPST is already a micro-stock! Do you think the market cap would drop to 200 million with a reverse? I doubt it. CPST's loss carry-forward is nearing a Billion now isn't it? To any other profitable company, that alone is worth the current market cap in real tax dollars saved. And that is with no turbine business at all! Capstone is getting some nice big orders. CPST is also nearing profitability (albeit slower than I want). If the next quarter shows another step in that direction and a bump in margins then we will be fine. PR's showing large orders are no longer boosting the stock like they should which to me shows that the market is now demanding profitability (i.e. completely ignoring this stock until that happens). If CPST times profitability (or REALLY close to it!) with a RS then I think all the years of game playing with this stock come to a screeching halt. A much smaller float would actually be a good thing if coupled with some positive financial progress. For years people have been complaining about the large float. Obviously a RS solves that. People need to focus on market cap, current sales, margins, and future potential again so this stock can be priced correctly. So I'm actually hoping for a RS COMBINED with a small profitable quarter this year. So your post trying to scare people is, I suspect, falling on deaf ears.
Re: "Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. "
Your right... I've made a pretty fair amount of money by buying my Capstone trading shares around a buck and then selling north of $1.50. I've done this a number of times while holding on to my long term shares for the future. So maybe you should take a lesson or two from the past!
Either way, it still motivates management to work hard and do the things necessary to give this stock a swift kick in the up direction!
Oh good grief. The very expression of "pump and dump" is meant to convey artificially inflating the price. INFLATING THE PRICE! Have you noticed that Capstone stock has taken a beating lately? Where exactly are the misleading (and fraudulent) statements that would constitute "pump and dump"? If anything, Capstone longs are often frustrated because management does not put out enough statements about successes and potential of the company. Have they ever said anything that did not happen exactly when they said it would? Of course. Name a company that hasn't. I'd say if someone doesn't believe in Capstone just sell and move on and stop wasting SOOOOO much time on a stupid BB. Turnip... that means you in case you don't get it.
If they had called out a downgrade to a SELL. shorts would be all over it with glee talking about how Capstone is now doomed. it takes a lot of guts to put out an upgrade AFTER a stock has taken a beating. A good analysis is looking FORWARD for their advisement. I've seen so many of your so called "big" firms put out upgrades AFTER stocks are up 100, 200, or 300 percent! If this firm's upgrade pays off then they will of earned some respect.
I never said they beat estimates. But quarters that have increased revenue and increasing margins I consider moving in the right direction. The last couple quarters are just a pause in the longer term trajectory.
I had to step away a couple times for a minute so might of missed it. I did hear them talk about the C370 moving along (glad to hear). But I didn't hear a single mention of the C250. I'm wondering if maybe that will be a nice upside surprise soon. If the release of the C250 is right around the corner, could that also be a reason for some delays in sales? I know if I was going to buy a C200 and I knew the C250 was due real soon I might just wait. Anyway, just a thought.
Nice non-emotional analysis. Thanks for putting things in perspective. Capstone had several years of really good quarter over quarter results every quarter. Although I wanted that pattern to continue unabated, part of me isn't surprised to see a couple softer quarters as a breather. I think the strong dollar and lower oil prices are putting a temporary crimp in things. I don't believe either of these two forces will continue forever. In the meantime, margins do continue to creep up which is a nice positive for when things pick up in the next two quarters.
I agree with every point you made. This needs some serious investigation! And while that is going on, the BOD simply needs to sell the company now. Get a little something they can toss to the shareholders and move on. They have had enough time to get things together. I don't think the street will EVER trust these guys. Why are these margins still so low??? Good grief, raise the damn price!!!! Even if you sell a few less at least it can be at a profit. Oh well. I don't think I even care much anymore. The price is so low now it's just not even that much money. I'll hold for those future better days like you.
True but I doubt the SEC really cares. I do have to admit, I've grown pretty weary of this stock. I'm going into this quarterly result with a bit of a don't really care attitude which is admittedly kinda different for me. I've got my shares tucked away and still feel that someday the company will hit pay dirt. If not now oh well.
Something to consider.... every prior quarter we often had spikes up and people would get all excited thinking positive news leaked. Well, we know how that always ended up (generally improving metrics but the stock would never respond). Now this time we have a spike down. Does this reverse pattern mean anything? Who knows. All I know is even given all the negative garbage the shorts post here every minutes of every day, the stock is undervalued given the trajectory and potential this company and it's products have.
Re: "They probably already dumped and took the loss."
Possibly. You don't know and I don't know. But here is a fact to consider... whoever bought all those shares KNEW it was going to be a dilution PR. Right? The buyer would of had to of known that would knock the stock down and take away any upward wind out of it's sails for a while. Who would invest millions and not know something that basic? So yes... it is possible that the purchase got PR'd and the stock dropped (as expected) and the buyer panicked and sold. But some how my gut tells me that's not how it played out. But whatever happened does not detract from the Wrightspeed point I was making.
I posted the following in another thread but figured it deserved it's own post for discussion. Are others anticipating big things with the Wrightspeed connection as much as I am? Obviously the general investing public isn't given the stock price. But the general investing public isn't always ahead of the ball! For a nice overview, search "tesla founder snags fedex". I liked the first article returned. Anyway, my thoughts...
"Wrightspeed has not been a source of real revenue for Capstone.... yet. But if you believe in the business savvy of the creator of Tesla (Ian Wright), then you understand the explosive potential of the Wrightspeed/Capstone alliance. Garbage trucks? Not very sexy or exciting? But could be a HUGE money maker for Wrightspeed and in turn Capstone. Wrightspeed is doing it just right... focus on the drivetrain rather than creating an entirely new vehicle. Good work Mr. Wright. Oh... and if you don't find garbage trucks exciting... how about FedEx? This whole thing could be absolutely huge for Capstone which will ultimately make that big buyer/investor at $1.70 a couple months ago look pretty darn smart!"