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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

shabamoon 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 9:23 AM Member since: Oct 15, 2012
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  • oil now above 45 ...Ocean Rig is more than tripled in the last few weeks with oil moving up but specially after ORIG bought a rig worth over $600 m for a mere $63 m in auction...With Paragon having written off a whopping $1.1 Billion of its debt and the oil moving up I expect the share price to zoom more than any other driller as Paragon is the only oil sector company giving a huge 65% of the restructured company to shareholders...that is 65% of the same Paragon company but only about half as much debt...think about it...once restructuring is done shares should be worth much more than few months ago when oil was near 40 and share near 5 bucks...

  • shabamoon shabamoon Mar 30, 2016 10:20 PM Flag

    I have been searching but have not find any such filing today; where did you see it was filed? can you provide the link or the site?

  • Reply to

    With 7 days to go still NO objections filed

    by insider_expert Mar 23, 2016 1:04 PM
    shabamoon shabamoon Mar 23, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    I also have to say "a buck" is much much too low specially that an obejection by term lenders is alreay more than built into the share price; I suspect even if there is an objection that the price would probably have a relief rally but not too much; However if there is no objection I believe the shares will easily go way above your "buck".

  • Paragon site says it is today after close with cc tomorrow at 9 central time; Anyone knows any better?

  • Reply to

    Anybody know why

    by bushloss04 Feb 24, 2016 4:52 PM
    shabamoon shabamoon Mar 2, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    Insider,
    It is funny how this Cheng guy can't get over the fact that he missed out on buying shares before the big jump. And now he sounds like he is in another world and, as you pointed out, does not seem to understand that the game is pretty much over and one way or another the equity holders will be getting the 65% already agreed on and submitted to the court by nearly everyone including the management, the bondholders, and the banks and whether term lenders object is for the most part irrelevant. Of course as it stands the term lenders have not recorded an objection with the court yet but even if they do won't matter much.

    Right now what is important is what happens to the price of oil and how long before the offshore drillers begin getting contracts again. But as for the 65% the game is over and Cheng better just accept that fact and move on.

  • shabamoon shabamoon Feb 21, 2016 11:09 PM Flag

    If one dilutes current numbers of shares outstanding (86.03 million) by 35% you'll get 121.95 million shares. Now if you divide $763 million by 121.95 shares you get $6.25/shares. Compare to last week's closing price of a meager 0.215 the share price needs to multiply by 29.1 times to get to $6.25; Why are you saying by 10?

    It seems to me even in the face of oil price, court matters, and other uncertainties going from 29 times to only 10 times that is too much of a discount specially that most if not all oil stocks these days face much uncertainty and speculation. I say the stock price needs to go up by at least 20 times from here to be even in the ballpark of where it needs to be; PGNPF is the cheapest most undervalued of all the stocks in the oil sector at this time.

  • shabamoon shabamoon Feb 19, 2016 6:31 AM Flag

    I would also add that the negotiations between Russia, Saudis, and others are the very first since 2014 when all of them stopped respecting any limits on production (specially Saudis and Russians) and the fact that they have started talking is a sign that they have finally decided to raise the oil prices back up and although they are only talking about freezing productions right now once they see there is no agreement on that and the prices keeps dropping they'll begin talking cuts.

    One more point: there are news this morning that US is now begun bombing ISIS in Libya for the first time showing instability in the middle east is only expanding which may push to member states to push more to stabilize oil to at lease financially help the region while bombing itself if extended to libya's oil field could also impact prices.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    APOLOGY TO MANAGEMENT

    by insider_expert Feb 15, 2016 11:59 AM
    shabamoon shabamoon Feb 15, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    Insider,

    I was very much sickened by profanity and threats used against the mamagement. I really think that Yahoo should ban such posters and that a simple apology by such posters is not enough.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend to common of 2015 FCF

    by value_investor84 Jan 21, 2016 12:19 PM
    shabamoon shabamoon Jan 21, 2016 10:07 PM Flag

    I couldn't agree more; This management needs to show a dime worth of support for the shareholders rather than only spewing hot air about how they have our backs. The shareholders are going to have to fight in courts for their rights and for returning those unjustified doubling of the salaries management bonuses back and for going after Noble and others that initially hatched this crime against the shareholders who are now over $1.5 billion in red. This management is disgraceful and would only understand the force of the law.

    I get sick to my stomach that I live in a country that allows such criminal and daylight robberies acted against common folks who put their trust an the words and deeds of such greedy actors.

    Lets all pursue some of those interested attorneys to file a lawsuit now and even before settlement agreement's announcement.

  • shabamoon shabamoon Dec 31, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    I am well aware of what is happened to the share price and mis-steps by the management including getting themselves deeper into debt, providing an untimely dividend only to cancel it, and giving themselves a lucrative bonus equal to a year's salary. Many of us shareholders are in the same boat as you with a mountain of losses and losing sleep; But being incompetent is different than being untruthful or outright lying; I don't remember anytime that they have outright lied;

    The CEO made an statement in his latest presentation at which time more than once, in an speech in front of other industry leaders and public media, clearly and forcefully stated and gave his word about protecting the shareholders and making sure they are also beneficiary of any eventual capital restructuring (please read his presentation for yourself before you make a rush judgement); Now, my question to you is why would I not believe that? to convince me otherwise please provide me another example of a similar public statement in front of a conference full of audience where the CEO obviously later went back on a promise.

    Of course I believe this CEO...you can call him whatever you like but I have never heard him outright lie.

  • shabamoon shabamoon Dec 27, 2015 1:57 AM Flag

    There is no reason to doubt the clear and straight out word of the CEO specially that he gave his word to conference full of audience;

    Delisting was just a technical matter and does not effect the operation of the company, their revenues, earnings, contracts, etc an iota...As for the effect on getting loans the company was already out of that option after withdrawing all their line of credit a few months ago as nobody would lend them right now anymore; and as for income from stocks the shares were already sub dollar; So I don't see what is all this commotion about the delisting all about! if anything it will save the company money in terms of fulfilling dow requirements.

    Now the shares were trading between 19-22 for the longest time recently (at least previous couple of months) but within 1-2 days prior to delisting the price lost about 25% which tells me there was some insider leaks or insider selling or both; this was followed by an additional 50% haircut once the delisting was announced;

    I believe both the initial 25% and second 50% corrections were knee jerk over reactions as delisting would have NO material effect of the company's top or bottom numbers...

    Does above mean the shares will go back to 19-22 cents in short term? of course nobody knows ; But does it mean it is justified to go back up? the answer is a definite 100% yes.

    But whether it goes up a few pennies to 19-22 cents may turn out to be insignificant compared to share price movement once the news about debt repurchase/restructuring is announced. And of course if the news is favorable, as I, like the CEO, expect then PGN would become one of the most profitable stocks for those who buy at today's price of nearly 60% discount to just few trading days ago.

    Good luck to all and happy holidays.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any new disclosures there?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • That is great. It will now start moving up the wall of worry for weeks and weeks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • shabamoon shabamoon Nov 9, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Currently shares are priced for bk but with no bk in horizon they will zoom back up to where they were before this bk rumor began making the circles.

    I upgrade to BUY.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bonuses = Good News coming?

    by insider_expert Oct 31, 2015 9:27 PM
    shabamoon shabamoon Nov 1, 2015 12:47 AM Flag

    KERP is not but bonuses given to critical employees of a company as an incentive to stay at times of restructuring, bankruptcy, or any and all other upheavals or uncertainties or major changes a company may be going through.

    However, if a company is contemplating bankruptcy of any kind they usually wait and obtain court's approval for KERP (to the top management); I believe Paragon would not have announced this KERP if ch11 was imminent as any bk judge would have either thrown it out or drill the company over it. For this very reason I don't think bk is imminent rather I think they are having success in out of court negotiation with debtors and
    bondholders. We will probably find out a lot more on November 9th.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • shabamoon shabamoon Oct 21, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    Thanks (although I don't even see how in the world PGN would even contemplate filing bk under their current finances). Good luck.

  • shabamoon shabamoon Oct 21, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Pgn does not, in my opinion have a "high likelihood of bk"; Of course price of oil has alot to do with how many in the sector will fair but PGN is in better financial situation to weather the storm than many many others.

  • PGN announces their latest FSR and announce the date for next earning report but to disappointment of the shorts there is nothing said about bk or ch11 as shorts were claiming would be announced any day. This in itself is proof that no such restructuring is contemplated by PGN which is very positive in my view for the share prices which have collapsed in anticipation of just such announcement .

  • In the remotest possibility that this "smart" management was even thinking about bk, which we know they were not, now with oil moving up no doubt they would have a second thought and such possibility would definitely be absolutely zero. Also, don't be surprised if petrobrass comes back begging to honor the contracts once again.

    Those standing on the sideline you could have bought the shares at a 33% discount just a week ago but it is not too late as PGN will fly. I would back up the truck and buy with both hands. This is opportunity of a lifetime. For those weak hands that sold over the past few days you already sorry but if you have any shares left hold on tight to them as shorts will try to use all the tricks in the books to steal them from you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Zacks Rank [?] Rank Change Trend Buy 2
    Zacks Industry Rank [?] 87 / 265 (Top 33%)
    Style Scores [?] Growth: C | Value: A | Momentum: F
    Equity Research Report (Oct 5,2015)

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