Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board
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Buy-out in its last leg. All agreements have been finalized; Orwin with his package and all that is left is to make sure all knowledge is retained and transferred for the benefit of the new owners.
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Finally the BUM is out. This is the final chapter in stock's slide. We are going up from here. It seem the company is getting ready for a buy out. The wording of the PR about TRANSFER of knowledge from current employees almost ALWAYS relates to a pending buy out.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Very nice and factual post. Thanks Raj.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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There is nothing wrong with Omontys itself; an allergic reaction is something common to nearly all drugs in the market for certain individuals; not only drugs but certain individuals are also allergic to certain food items such as mushrooms, peanuts, kiwi, etc and insect bites and some of those develop into anaphylactic deadly reactions.
What is panicked some people and this stupid CEO is that they are not distinguishing between an allergic reaction for a very small number of people taking the drug, something common to nearly ALL drugs, vs an inherent harming effect of the drug itself such as that we've had with drugs such as Viox, Phen-fen, Actos, etc.
Omontys will 100% be back in the market. Do you really think a giant Japanese company such as Takeda would be that stupid to take on the cost of investigation and putting their name and reputation on the line if they did not know they can bring Omontys back?
If you have funds buy with both fists.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Takeda is a 42 bil. mk. cap. co. why play with 39 ml. mkt. cap. co. that lies , cheats, and scams
by iamgoldpumper •Apr 13, 2013 2:41 PMThe lawsuits are baseless; The company had clearly warned about possible serious allergic reaction as has Amgen regarding their epogen. Nowhere have they clearly stated what is their case based on because they know they have no case; These lawyers only hope is to have Affymax settle for a certain amount in order to avoid the legal costs but I think they are wrong there because their case is so meritless that it will be thrown out in pre-hearning. Also Takeda's deep pocket is enough of a threat to these lawyers own pocket book and trial costs if they lose at the end that I think they will themselves drop the cases in due time now that Takeda has taken over Omontys.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Not only bk is not an option there has been strong indications that the company is not even thinking that despite all their the public future damage control statements:
1-Any dummy know that no sane company ever pays their largest and practically only debt ($12 million in Affymax's case) days before filling bk. Their payment of this large bank loan was and is , in my view, a death nail in the coffin of bk speculators;
2- No sane company or a bk judge will ever even consider a bk when there are no debt as such just based on non-proven lawsuits which company is on the record to claim they are all baseless;
3- Even if a bk judge agrees to hear the case he/she will throw it out immediately because of all the potential hundreds of millions in future earnings, including royalties and milestones again while there are no debts;
4-the company has absolutely no incentive and many disincentives for bk; They have insurance to cover the lawsuits (which by the way are absolutely baseless as company is done everything according to FDA's recommendation and the problem has not been the medication but allergic reactions to the medication which applies to nearly ALL medications in the market;
5-If there was any incentive regarding the lawsuits to file are now irrelevant because Takeda now holds the future of Omontys and they are the ones with deep pocket and are also named in every lawsuit.
I believe a buy-out is what the company is seriously considering at this very moment but they are also content to await Takeda's investigation of Omontys's recall issues and hopefully using those funds to go after other drugs, buy back shares, etc.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Remember how we dropped way below $1 on Thursday, after the latest Takeda agreement was announced, only to rebound back above it? Do you think that was a coincidence? Of course not.
Yes the web site is down but Takeda's is still up and they continue to advertise Omontys as one of their top products on their site.
Now lets see how much is Affymax worth to a deep pocket like Takeda TODAY: about a billion or so in tax loss that Takeda could use every penny of it of they owned Affymax outright; Takeda has to pay milestone of $180 million to Affymax which would be nulified if they owned Affymax; and Takeda has to pay Affymax BILLIONS over Omontys's lifetime in royalties which would also be nullified if the bought Affymax.
Now do you think Takeda would allow another deep pocket such as Amgen take Affymax over? Not in a million year if they could help it. Could they be a behind the scene horse trading and betting war between Takeda, Amgen, and possibly others? Very likely.
But lets just take one of the numbers above and lets say we try to price Affymax just based on the milestone of $180 million; Lets also presume that $30 million is spent on administrative costs to collect that amount (note that Affymax's current cash and goodwill and asset values were not even included in the above).
Based on just 150 million above the shares are worth north of $4. Now lets include about $800 million or so in tax losses to see what would be the value of Affymax to Takeda solely based on these 2 items (800 + 150 = 950). These 2 alone would value Affymax from Takeda's perspective to around $24.
You read that right. $24....And that does not include potential billions in royalties, which from where I stand is a cash cow at no cost to Affymax and where Affymax's main value lies, or its current cash, goodwill, etc...
And why no bk is coming or possible? see the next post.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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SO is it correct to say that not much is different? split went from 50/50 to a smaller share for affy?
by jeremyrobertscheel •Apr 12, 2013 12:06 PMI think you are right on the money. The split went down but Affy also get an additional $180 million in milestones. But the big deal is that all responsibilities for investigation plus post market cost are all on Takeda. This to be is a very lop sided deal in favor of Affy.
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See yahoo under ELN for full story.
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Why Orwin wanted to wind down before APRIL-2013 (50 days) before Investigation is complete?
by dinepat203 •Apr 12, 2013 9:15 AMI am still at a loss to understand your explanation about what was Orwin's incentive, or Affymax's for that matter, to "wind down" the company?
You talk alot about Epogen and how it "falls off patients in 2013" and how this will drastically effect Amgen while Roche is waited to take market shares. You also talk about who has what contracts etc. But nowhere that Is I see do you simply explain "why Orwin wanted to wind down before April 2013".
Could please explain further. I agree that something fishy is going on and that this whole thing does not make sense but nobody has been able to explain what is that "fishy" thing. To me just a golden parachute for Orwin does not make sense as BOD and hundreds of other employees would have raised hell.
Also I don't believe anyone here had heard before that all of the 5 reactions (I presume those include the 3 deaths) happened "on the same day at one Presenus centre"; As a matter of fact the original recall PR by the company made it clear that it was not at a particular centere or from a particular batch. Can you clarify? -
Yesterday's bounce from .62 all the way to 1.20 and closing near the day's high at 1.12 along with the agreement with Takeda nullifying any possibility of bk while clearly stating future potential revenues was a sealed deal for the very bottom.
The agreement should have caused the share price to jump and skyrocket but initial misinformation and distrust of the CEO along with the final sentence of the PR, again repeating bk, held the shares down to near break-even. The only news piece about the agreement also put the bk on its title. Despite all this break-even may have been a major initial victory for the longs but the shares will eventually skyrocket in order to reflect all the great news in the agreement.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Hence today's poor performance despite and absolutely incredible agreement lop-sided to Affymax's advantage. Why the distrust? Because no one knows what he is going to do next and because it is becoming obvious that he is working behind the scene to line up his own and his bosses pockets and does not give a hoot about the shareholders.
But I ask longs to be patient as we will overcome the corruption. In a way with yesterday's agreement the CEO is tied his own hands and now he can not in good faith do a bk or sell the company very cheap.
Could it be that we are all wrong about this CEO? your opinion? -
I think if Takeda was going to take over Affymax there would be no need for yesterday's agreement. Otherwise it does not make sense to first have such a broad agreement and then have a buy-out. The buy-out alone would have done it all.
My feeling is that Affymax, by signing yesterday's agreement, is decided to hold on to whatever is left of the company (which is everything they always had minus O and 75% of personal) in the hope of either getting involved with a new drug (They may even have one in mind already) or simply selling the rest of the company to a third party. It is not true that what is left is not worth anything; there continues to be much value in terms of good will and expertise and equipment/facility. Also in a buy out they may have to include the $180 million milestone and hundreds millions in potential royalties from Takeda and hence value any buy-out at hundreds of milliond if not a billion dollar.
Affymax may also be thinking of creating a much bigger company out of Affymax with multiple drugs in the future with all the potential monies coming from Takeda.
Th news of the past 24 hours was all extremely good for Affymax and the share price performance has not taken that into account at all or we would right now, in my opinion be sitting at $3-5. I think the mistrust of this CEO is the worst enemy of share prices right now but this will be overcome. -
You were warned not to pay attention to the multiple aliases of this paid basher but some did not listen their shares were shaken off with thousands in losses. Ans yes today the Goodwinpeaks of this board are laughing all the way to the bank.
Let this be a lesson; next time don't let Yahoo board guide you on whether to buy or sell; next time use your own brain; In affy's case you showed have read the SEC filling from yesterday yourself. Even a blind person could have seen that the agreement was a major win for Affymax with chances of BK diminished to zero as was the cost to Affymax for the recall investigation all the while Affymax gets both milestone money of $180 million as well as hundreds and hundreds of millions in royalties for the lifetime of the Omontys drug.
Disclosure: I am all in (went all in a few weeks ago when shares hit 1.05 ) but did not sell a single share the past 24 hours. Unfortunately I did not have any funds standing by or I would have bought with both fists yesterday AH and this morning.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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With this CEO anything is possible but it is almost clear to me a buy-out is coming within days to 1-2 weeks. But even if there is no buy-out, as long as this CEO does not do anything else foolish, the shares will easily climb back to their old glory once royalties and milestone money starts rolling in. If only the CEO would buds-out.
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3.7 MILLION FOR VOLUME??? WHAT A JOKE OF A FAILED BEAR RAID!! NO ONE IS SELLING!!!
by wildbill400 •Apr 11, 2013 11:12 AMJust what I was thinking and was about to post. No one is selling, period.
And you know why? Because the news wasn't just good but was lop sided to the advantage of Affymax. One reason we are not right now looking at $2+ is because this management and CEO have lost credibility and nobody trusts them anymore. It is almost obvious they are setting up for a buy-out but people have learned that this CEO is foolish if not corrupt and with him anything is possible. -
You were WRONG on all accounts:
1-Your #1 claim was that Affymax will go bk but now we know that not to be even in the cards. Affymax would not have paid off their $12 million loan if they were going to file bk. Also with today's news of Takeda taking over all costs and responsibilities and with their loan paid off along with $180 million coming to them along with a very nice permanent royalty which would add up to millions and millions you have to agree there is zero chance of any bk now or in the future;
2-You said Omontys will never be brought back to the market; It is now apparent that at least Takeda does not agree with you or they would not agree to spend millions going forward on O and the ongoing investigation;
3- You even contradict yourself; On one hand you call Takeda "sneaky" and trying to steal Omontys while at the same time you claim Omontys is worthless. Why be "sneaky" to steal something worthless? You obviously are should searching while not recognizing the strength and extensive knowledge base Takeda has and uses before agreeing to today's agreement.
Sorry but you sound like a most desperate low life who is too blind to see his obvious errors and mistakes.
As for today's announcement, no matter how much you bash it under your dozen or so aliases, the truth is that this was a very good news for affymax and AFFY shareholders and you know it.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Very well said and to the point. 100% agree. Best post of the day. I will continue to hold for the long run but may trade at times.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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"As a result of the Amendment, Takeda assumes full responsibility for OMONTYS, including the ongoing recall and investigation of OMONTYS as well as any subsequent decisions as to whether the product may be subject to re-introduction if Takeda is able to complete the investigation and address the safety concerns to the satisfaction of the FDA. If Takeda decides to re-introduce OMONTYS, all of which is highly uncertain, the Company is eligible to receive royalties and (i) potential commercial milestone payments totaling up to $180 million of which $10 million is payable upon the first commercial sale after re-introduction of OMONTYS in the U.S., of which a $10 million and another $10 million relates to U.S. sales-based milestones, and of which $150 million relates to sales-based milestones in amounts as previously disclosed outside of the U.S. but now including Japan as a result of the Amendment and (ii) a potential development milestone payment of $5 million payable either upon regulatory approval in the E.U. or Japan. The royalties are tiered in the range of 13-17% with respect to net sales in the U.S. and in the range of 13-24% depending on the level of net sales by Takeda worldwide ex- U.S. "
In addition all investigation responsibilities and costs plus future production and distribution and marketing of Omontys goes solely to Takeda.
FOLKS FOLKS FOLKS....Don't be fooled by AH stock price. The agreement gives Affymax the best of both world. I think if not for manipulation this stock would open at $3 + tomorrow morning and be back at $15 within months of Omontys is back in the market.
And back Omontys will; I think this is quite obvious now.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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This is indeed a great news.This will save them a bundle on interest payments. It is obvious they are trying to save cash to continue with the investigation while cleaning up the books for possible buy out. This proves bk is out of question or they would not have paid of the loan. Nobody in their right minds pays off their only loan of nearly $10 million if they were going to file bk. It just does not happen that way.
Great news indeed.Sentiment: Strong Buy