Never lose a profit over a tax consideration. Making a profit is what counts. Can always offset against a loss to neutralize the tax consequence. Good luck--thanks for the reply.
Same. Also trying to figure out whether I want to keep thru merger or sell now at 52 week high. Interested in your thoughts.
Check out EMES Marv. Getting crushed right now. Wells lowered valuation more than half. Midstream is safer for now. But fracking revolution will continue after an intermission. Still need sand to frack. Upstreams are in the process of contacting their suppliers asking for discounts now and extending contracts. This is true as Wells reports. O&G management are taking their compensation in shares--showing they expect a short to intermediate turn around. Will start nibbling next year to average down. Best.
Valuation Range: $47.00 to $56.00 from $101.00 to $106.00
Our $47-$56 valuation is based on a 6-7x multiple of 2016E EBITDA and
represents 15-18% yield potential based on estimated generation of distributable
cash flow. Risks include unforeseen macroeconomic, industry and regulatory
events that affect demand for Emerge's products, the most significant being crude
oil and natural gas prices that differ materially from our forecasts, and the potential
over-expansion of frac sand supply. Aditionally, our expected frac sand volume
growth for EMES is dependent upon EMES sucessfully constructing new
mines/plants and selling increased volumes in a timely fashion
Money you are right. In 1985 after the collapse of oil Houston went into a major recession/ depression where ever other house on every block was for sale--just like Las Vegas 2008-9. Banks were foreclosing on everything they could. It was terrible for Texas. It took about 10 years to recover.
Return to normalcy 2-3 years. Hold core positions in KMI, EPD, ETE/ETP, NGLS/TRGP. Building core and trading positions in BPL, EOG, CLR, AMID and EMES. That's it for energy at this time. Had over 30 mlps at one time but no more--Rich Kinder has given us a heads up about where mature mlps go, immature mlps will be challenged--some will not make it and others will be merged. But currently risk outweighs the reward. Still my focus is on midstreams around the gulf coast. I would like to see steady, safe divvies and on other hand, safer growth. OILT was the later, but look at that--good growth, but taken out with no premium. Should have done better. Oh well--I think BPL is somewhat similar. Regarding entry levels everyone thinks differently. Best
Now is a good time to buy. Share prices are depressed, everyone thinks that American companies can't cut costs, long range plans are still in motion (LNG), chemical companies are still planning new plants, banks are staying very close to their customers and advising them early how to take cover, and the world is growing population wise. One must be careful which part of the supply chain to invest in. Midstream still remains the sweet spot for now. Would not own upstream mlps now and offshore is best limited to the integrated companies. Eagleford shale play is one to focus on. Where can resources be harvested the cheapest. Right now patience is called for and not to get caught up in end of the year tax selling or harvesting of winners. Best and productive investing for the new year.
Agree with you centerdir. Today I was driving and saw a train with lots of open cars filled with sand. The usage has not decreased. Harold Hamm is not slowing down , just shifting to more profitable areas to drill in. Will get back to the less profitable areas when prices go up. These guys have been thru these boom and bust cycles before. Also the banks have not started foreclosing yet. Nor have the banks started to go under due to being overextended in o&g.
Currently most e&p mlps are preparing their budgets for next year and are cutting costs by about 20%--that's the whisper number. They are going to try to do more with less. Rig count will go down, but will put more sand thru to get more out of them. I think your calculations are a little bit off. Best
Added some yesterday at the open. Good value and won't stay this low forever. The great American energy will continue after a cleansing phase. Best
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Feel sorry for you fountain. And you probably want Hilary next. Or Elizabeth Warren????
PS if you can't feed your family the rest of that stuff you're talking about doesn't mean much.
This president will go down in history as the worst president of the modern era. He has destroyed the middle class and has taken away their full time employment with benefits while their taxes have continued to rise. If he was interested in job creation he would have approved the pipeline so there would be increased jobs in building it and manufacturing jobs on the gulf coast. He continues to encourage government overregulation and racial inequality, while granting amnesty for illegals who are going to get the benefits of citizenship. Most families like mine had to earn the right of citizenship though proper channels. Plus he has not protected our borders especially here in Texas. Marv, don't agree with the slur stuff, but the reason most of his advisors have quit on him is because he is not presidential--just a social worker/ community activist from Chicago who has never held down a real job in his life--let alone be a business owner who actually employs people. Best
For the past several years I have enjoyed your insightful comments. But today you sound like a scared retail investor. What has changed? History of oil boom and bust cycles, OPEC, fracking, east coast vs texas --location, future profits, upstream vs midstream vs downstream, funding, large cap vs mid cap vs small cap, banking, Kinder model, lack of health of the funding sources or etc. ?????? Or all of the above?? Or just listening to too much CNBC? Today was low volume and probably a hedge fund blowing up. Truth will return on Monday when the real investors return from holiday and see if this this decline will continue or buyers will step in and of what part of the energy field are they interested in. I'm betting midstream , mature upstream and mature upstream mlps. Sand is ripe for take outs. Lot more m&a will occur. Small o&g will disappear. My opinions come from 30 years of investing in this sector, living in Houston, and having many friends in o&g . I personally think this is a healthy pull back/ reality check and hope it is not a bust as I saw here in the late 80s--now that was a depression here in Houston. One piece of advice-- don't get too technical now--keep your eye on the big picture and what the real oil guys are doing. Best and good investing. PS--should have sold the day OILT take over was announced. OK to keep KMI, EPD, ETE/ETP, BPL. NGLS/ TRGP--should have taken the offer--but there will be some pain. And MWE--will be some pain, maybe m&a.