Return to normalcy 2-3 years. Hold core positions in KMI, EPD, ETE/ETP, NGLS/TRGP. Building core and trading positions in BPL, EOG, CLR, AMID and EMES. That's it for energy at this time. Had over 30 mlps at one time but no more--Rich Kinder has given us a heads up about where mature mlps go, immature mlps will be challenged--some will not make it and others will be merged. But currently risk outweighs the reward. Still my focus is on midstreams around the gulf coast. I would like to see steady, safe divvies and on other hand, safer growth. OILT was the later, but look at that--good growth, but taken out with no premium. Should have done better. Oh well--I think BPL is somewhat similar. Regarding entry levels everyone thinks differently. Best
Now is a good time to buy. Share prices are depressed, everyone thinks that American companies can't cut costs, long range plans are still in motion (LNG), chemical companies are still planning new plants, banks are staying very close to their customers and advising them early how to take cover, and the world is growing population wise. One must be careful which part of the supply chain to invest in. Midstream still remains the sweet spot for now. Would not own upstream mlps now and offshore is best limited to the integrated companies. Eagleford shale play is one to focus on. Where can resources be harvested the cheapest. Right now patience is called for and not to get caught up in end of the year tax selling or harvesting of winners. Best and productive investing for the new year.
Agree with you centerdir. Today I was driving and saw a train with lots of open cars filled with sand. The usage has not decreased. Harold Hamm is not slowing down , just shifting to more profitable areas to drill in. Will get back to the less profitable areas when prices go up. These guys have been thru these boom and bust cycles before. Also the banks have not started foreclosing yet. Nor have the banks started to go under due to being overextended in o&g.
Currently most e&p mlps are preparing their budgets for next year and are cutting costs by about 20%--that's the whisper number. They are going to try to do more with less. Rig count will go down, but will put more sand thru to get more out of them. I think your calculations are a little bit off. Best
Added some yesterday at the open. Good value and won't stay this low forever. The great American energy will continue after a cleansing phase. Best
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Feel sorry for you fountain. And you probably want Hilary next. Or Elizabeth Warren????
PS if you can't feed your family the rest of that stuff you're talking about doesn't mean much.
This president will go down in history as the worst president of the modern era. He has destroyed the middle class and has taken away their full time employment with benefits while their taxes have continued to rise. If he was interested in job creation he would have approved the pipeline so there would be increased jobs in building it and manufacturing jobs on the gulf coast. He continues to encourage government overregulation and racial inequality, while granting amnesty for illegals who are going to get the benefits of citizenship. Most families like mine had to earn the right of citizenship though proper channels. Plus he has not protected our borders especially here in Texas. Marv, don't agree with the slur stuff, but the reason most of his advisors have quit on him is because he is not presidential--just a social worker/ community activist from Chicago who has never held down a real job in his life--let alone be a business owner who actually employs people. Best
For the past several years I have enjoyed your insightful comments. But today you sound like a scared retail investor. What has changed? History of oil boom and bust cycles, OPEC, fracking, east coast vs texas --location, future profits, upstream vs midstream vs downstream, funding, large cap vs mid cap vs small cap, banking, Kinder model, lack of health of the funding sources or etc. ?????? Or all of the above?? Or just listening to too much CNBC? Today was low volume and probably a hedge fund blowing up. Truth will return on Monday when the real investors return from holiday and see if this this decline will continue or buyers will step in and of what part of the energy field are they interested in. I'm betting midstream , mature upstream and mature upstream mlps. Sand is ripe for take outs. Lot more m&a will occur. Small o&g will disappear. My opinions come from 30 years of investing in this sector, living in Houston, and having many friends in o&g . I personally think this is a healthy pull back/ reality check and hope it is not a bust as I saw here in the late 80s--now that was a depression here in Houston. One piece of advice-- don't get too technical now--keep your eye on the big picture and what the real oil guys are doing. Best and good investing. PS--should have sold the day OILT take over was announced. OK to keep KMI, EPD, ETE/ETP, BPL. NGLS/ TRGP--should have taken the offer--but there will be some pain. And MWE--will be some pain, maybe m&a.
Since OILT was taken out by EPD for its Houston ship channel assets. Does anyone have an opinion of BPL?
HOUSTON, Sept. 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Trafigura AG, a leader in international commodities trading and logistics, announced today it has successfully completed the sale of 80 percent of its membership interests in Trafigura Terminals LLC, the entity which holds its South Texas midstream assets, to Buckeye Partners, L.P. ("Buckeye") (BPL). The all-cash transaction valued at USD860 million and received all necessary regulatory approvals from the Federal Trade Commission. Trafigura AG and Buckeye first announced the sale agreement on September 2, 2014.
Trafigura AG will maintain a 20 percent interest in the new joint venture and retain commercial rights to use all of the assets which include; a deep-water, high-volume marine terminal located on the Corpus Christi Ship Channel, a condensate splitter and LPG storage complex, and crude gathering facilities serving the prolific Eagle Ford shale play.
"This transaction is consistent with our long-term strategy to support our trading business through targeted investments in infrastructure and logistical assets," said Trafigura AG's Jeff Kopp, Head of North America Oil Trading. "By leveraging third-party investment, we free up capital to be reinvested in other business activities."
BPL will now serve as the exit for Eagle Ford Production. Cheers
The intent was not to lose money. The intent was to pick a highly speculative company in an industry I believed in and had promise. I learned a lot. But the industry is plagued--look at MCP the leader. GWMGF has/had such promise--but as the sisters say "no margin=no mission". So no funding= failed company. So sad, so much promise. Best
Took my loss now. Needed to offset significant gains. I'll keep following. Right now all coal, steel, rare earths etc are in the dog house--financing is difficult for them but easy for oil and gas. So good luck. Cheers. Shaman
Ya got til December to get financing and show you can make things happen. I have significant gains this year and will be forced to take offsetting losses. So lets do a deal. Been an investor for 5 years now and its time. Cheers. Shaman
Unwinding the mlp model--going the opposite of the integrated oils. Can start fresh and build a real major without all the downsteams. I think EOG or LINE would be a fit. Interested in opinions--Ruby, Coochy, rrb, Norris et al. Cheers
Market is pulling it down now. Earnings not leaked. May not make expectations--that would take it down further. So the safe bet is take profit now and wait for data if you entered recently. If your buy was over a year you may want to ride it down for now. Cheers
Agree. Waiting for it to go back to low 20s before entering. I think we'll get there. New IPOs are now holding off. The 30% run up at opening was crazy and not justified. Best