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PBF Energy Inc. Message Board

shamanhbc 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 23, 2015 11:05 AM Member since: May 17, 2011
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  • Reply to

    LOADED MORE NGLS TODAY. An Absolute Steal!

    by deepsea21 Dec 1, 2014 6:11 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 19, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Added some yesterday at the open. Good value and won't stay this low forever. The great American energy will continue after a cleansing phase. Best

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sand usage

    by sharong2002wang Dec 19, 2014 11:27 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 20, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Currently most e&p mlps are preparing their budgets for next year and are cutting costs by about 20%--that's the whisper number. They are going to try to do more with less. Rig count will go down, but will put more sand thru to get more out of them. I think your calculations are a little bit off. Best

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    sand usage

    by sharong2002wang Dec 19, 2014 11:27 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 20, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Agree with you centerdir. Today I was driving and saw a train with lots of open cars filled with sand. The usage has not decreased. Harold Hamm is not slowing down , just shifting to more profitable areas to drill in. Will get back to the less profitable areas when prices go up. These guys have been thru these boom and bust cycles before. Also the banks have not started foreclosing yet. Nor have the banks started to go under due to being overextended in o&g.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Risk vs reward

    by nymarv10956 Dec 23, 2014 1:08 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 23, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Now is a good time to buy. Share prices are depressed, everyone thinks that American companies can't cut costs, long range plans are still in motion (LNG), chemical companies are still planning new plants, banks are staying very close to their customers and advising them early how to take cover, and the world is growing population wise. One must be careful which part of the supply chain to invest in. Midstream still remains the sweet spot for now. Would not own upstream mlps now and offshore is best limited to the integrated companies. Eagleford shale play is one to focus on. Where can resources be harvested the cheapest. Right now patience is called for and not to get caught up in end of the year tax selling or harvesting of winners. Best and productive investing for the new year.

  • Reply to

    Risk vs reward

    by nymarv10956 Dec 23, 2014 1:08 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 24, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Return to normalcy 2-3 years. Hold core positions in KMI, EPD, ETE/ETP, NGLS/TRGP. Building core and trading positions in BPL, EOG, CLR, AMID and EMES. That's it for energy at this time. Had over 30 mlps at one time but no more--Rich Kinder has given us a heads up about where mature mlps go, immature mlps will be challenged--some will not make it and others will be merged. But currently risk outweighs the reward. Still my focus is on midstreams around the gulf coast. I would like to see steady, safe divvies and on other hand, safer growth. OILT was the later, but look at that--good growth, but taken out with no premium. Should have done better. Oh well--I think BPL is somewhat similar. Regarding entry levels everyone thinks differently. Best

  • Reply to

    This week as I read it

    by nymarv10956 Dec 29, 2014 5:07 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Money you are right. In 1985 after the collapse of oil Houston went into a major recession/ depression where ever other house on every block was for sale--just like Las Vegas 2008-9. Banks were foreclosing on everything they could. It was terrible for Texas. It took about 10 years to recover.

  • shamanhbc by shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Wells take
    Valuation Range: $47.00 to $56.00 from $101.00 to $106.00
    Our $47-$56 valuation is based on a 6-7x multiple of 2016E EBITDA and
    represents 15-18% yield potential based on estimated generation of distributable
    cash flow. Risks include unforeseen macroeconomic, industry and regulatory
    events that affect demand for Emerge's products, the most significant being crude
    oil and natural gas prices that differ materially from our forecasts, and the potential
    over-expansion of frac sand supply. Aditionally, our expected frac sand volume
    growth for EMES is dependent upon EMES sucessfully constructing new
    mines/plants and selling increased volumes in a timely fashion

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    This is why

    by shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:37 AM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I'm long and going to buy more, just going to wait until low to mid 40s. Best

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Risk vs reward

    by nymarv10956 Dec 23, 2014 1:08 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Check out EMES Marv. Getting crushed right now. Wells lowered valuation more than half. Midstream is safer for now. But fracking revolution will continue after an intermission. Still need sand to frack. Upstreams are in the process of contacting their suppliers asking for discounts now and extending contracts. This is true as Wells reports. O&G management are taking their compensation in shares--showing they expect a short to intermediate turn around. Will start nibbling next year to average down. Best.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    This is why

    by shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:37 AM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Dec 30, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I am. PS the spelling was the Wells analyst--wasn't Michael Blum so is understandable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Please explain VTR/HCT merger to me

    by bigal.saunders Jan 6, 2015 2:11 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Jan 6, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Same. Also trying to figure out whether I want to keep thru merger or sell now at 52 week high. Interested in your thoughts.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Please explain VTR/HCT merger to me

    by bigal.saunders Jan 6, 2015 2:11 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Jan 7, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Sold. Nice profit. We'll see what the merger brings.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Please explain VTR/HCT merger to me

    by bigal.saunders Jan 6, 2015 2:11 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Jan 7, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    Never lose a profit over a tax consideration. Making a profit is what counts. Can always offset against a loss to neutralize the tax consequence. Good luck--thanks for the reply.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • shamanhbc by shamanhbc Jan 15, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Trying to make his 100m settlement back. Nice

  • Reply to

    Nice

    by shamanhbc Jan 15, 2015 9:47 AM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Jan 15, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    Agree. I am long by the way.

  • Reply to

    ENBL revenue

    by kxviswan Jan 26, 2015 6:35 PM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Feb 7, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    Barron's just guided down to $20. Not happy about that as I'm long and also live in Houston. Best.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Higher offer

    by lizardoo Feb 23, 2015 5:37 AM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Feb 23, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Sold. Both boards agreed. Time to move on. Probably just short covering.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Higher offer

    by lizardoo Feb 23, 2015 5:37 AM
    shamanhbc shamanhbc Feb 23, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Maybe. But usually when both boards agree they usually have enough shares behind them to justify. Good luck. Best

    Sentiment: Sell

PBF
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