so, ghritz - i own you an apology as you have stuck to your guns.
to others, i believe the RS is combined with a Full Recapitalization and uplisting will better position the company for future success.
however, i don't believe it will be the RS that'll drag down the pps - I believe what ghritz is referring to has more to do with companies with scant prospects that have used a RS for window dressing - Rather, the pressure on share price will stem from the RS coupled with a major series of new stock offerings, which will have to be exceptionally large due to 1) apdn's low, but still overpriced, pps; and 2) a substantial discount to induce new investors to come on board.
apdn's mgt wants to put the eleventh hour equity financings behind them so they can focus on expanding its operations and open up new channels of cheaper and more reliable financing. i'm sure it's also looking for some strong-hand institutional investors to lend stability and credibility to the share price.
they're going to go through with their plans to RS and uplist and likely recapitalize the balance sheet whether posters here agree or not. i'm sure they've been huddled with an investment house for some time now mapping all this out and lining up new investors for a planned recap.
to the extent they're undertaking the above at this juncture speaks clearly to their admission that they simply cannot get to the next level based on organic growth alone...
the question is what will happen to the pps as all this unfolds?
while i think you're list is another shining example of "selection bias", i think you're 4-5 year time frame for apdn to sport a respectable, if not astronomical, pps is a much more realistic prediction than is customarily found on this mb.
and if you notice, the other "long" posters while talking big and continuing to harshly criticize my message, have not been buying additional shares despite all the "amazing good news"... and "strong buy!" recommendations...
their actions (ie, not buying) are finally smarter than their words (ie, strong buy!)...and if they have a very large position, it would make sense imo to trim it so when it drops 50% (or more) they not looking at having to wait for the stock to double (or more) to get back to where they were before...
at least they've dropped the "load up the boat" rally cries, which is also interesting since the pps has slumped in the face of what they consider to be excellent tidings...including your frequent optimistic posts suggesting the the pps is not really in danger of falling further - even if the company goes ahead with a Full Recapitalization....
thanks! and good luck when it does unfold....keep some tums close at hand...lol
and you think institutional investors are going to jump on board at/near or above the post-RS pps?
apdn is going to do everything is can to keep the pps as high as possible in anticipation of the RS... will be pushing out lots of pr's...to give them a cushion for when they recapitalize...they and their investment bankers know that the pps will sink, and so they need some breathing room to avoid pps listing thresholds...
i've been right so far (see my october postings) in the face of hostile (you the exception) doubters...
if this were a high-profile momentum play i'd say there might not be a drop in pps upon new issuances - however, this is not the case. the company doesn't have a clear NEAR TERM path to FCF and is essentially unknown except to a small circle of investors...
as i had stated multiple times last october (see my posts) - in the face of hostility from the pumpers - a reverse split was inevitable and if it were for the purpose of uplisting to a big board and not for window dressing it would be beneficial.
so while continuing to believe that - and what apoc said above - the one issue i'd add is that the ensuing recapitalization is probably going to hit the pps very hard, and so anyone thinking of buying in at this point in any material way should rather tread lightly...
apdn's decision to set aside 500,000,000 authorized shares is LIKELY at strong signal that supports the view that it will be seeking large amounts of fresh capital - and hopefully from strong-hand upper-tier institutional investors. anyone who thinks these new investors are going to be so enamored of the apdn narrative that they decide to acquire shares at/near/ or above the prevailing pps are, i'm afraid, going to be in for a rude awakening.
so while i agree that the company is on a path to success, the story of the pps for the next 1,2,3 years could be divergent...
i'll be looking to add to my very modest position at price levels more consistent with the new round of investors, which i believe will be 50-75% below the current pps...of course, the dilution will mean my equity stake is commensurately less, but i won't have to wait for the stock to go back up 100% or more just to get back to where we are today...
apdn has stated in the past that sometimes customers don't want a pr released for various reasons. why don't you email apdn ir?
gman - you make it sound like i'm accusing management of changing course out of irresponsibility. i'm not. what i'm saying is that BY necessity they're going to have to "abandon" the previous ad hoc mini-offerings and do a much larger one that's consistent with the transitional path they're on.
i don't know if you're intentionally skewing the characterization of what i'm stating or doing out of subconscious bias...gl
"May the possibilities for APDN come to be and may the believers be rewarded."
sounds faith-based... are all denominations welcomed or just believers in apdn as being our only true path to redemption?
"The question we all want to know is how much of the 500M shares will they tap into? With 13.8M shares outstanding post RS, in order to immunize the SPS and EPS, I figure they can issue close to 286M shares giving them close to 300M shares O/S. IF AT $5, that is a ton of working capital which is why I don't think they will issue this out of the gates. I figure 20% of shares O/S seems a stretch initially. IF AT $5, that is an additional 86m shares or $430M in the capital raise which is also a ton of cash flow."
you're assuming (your calculations) that apdn can plan on diluting its shares by 20 times (286mm add'l shares issued.13.8mm o/s) or 6x (86mm new shares issued/13.8mm o/s) and that somehow the investors in the newly issued shares would be willing to buy them for merely a 31% reduction in share price.
i like the way you're thinking as far as apdn needing to undertake a very significant recapitalization post-RS, but you can see where i come up with a 50%-75% haircut for current shareholders when you start running some numbers in a more realistic way. you can't fight the math on this one -- one can deny it as evidenced by some other posters, but that's a function of greed, fear and pigheadedness.
btw, combine the above numbers with de minimis revenues (
it's pretty amazing how out in the open some of the insider trading is...brazen...
hey chicken-man - at what price did you get in on apdn? lol ...
you're so funny... pecking and clucking away... telling everyone over and over how you got into apdn at .06 and made a million... cluck cluck cluck ... i made a million... cluck cluck cluck ... i got in at .06...cluck cluck cluck ... it's going to the moon, alice!... cluck cluck cluck... i got in at .06...cluck cluck ... did everyone hear??!!??...cluck cluck cluck...bok bok bok...got my degree at frank perdue university....cluck cluck ...
you're priceless, chicken-man! you could make a million more as a minor league mascot entertaining folks at the ballpark.... bok bok cluck cluck
you know, you're out-posting me chicken-man? for some reason, i picture you foaming at the beak as you peck away at the keyboard...lol
wow! you forgot to throw the kitchen sink in your post!
boy, mpom, how many times are you going to repeat to your fellow longs that you "got in at .06"? you'd think 20 or 30 references would be sufficient? lol ... i mean, c'mon, give it a rest buddy! we all know you're rolling in the apdn dough...lmao
i like your post though...nice example of "whistling past the graveyard"...lol
also, when you say everyone knew it was coming, i guess you didn't bother reading my history lesson above when gman, ghritz, apoc, allamginger, et al were adamantly objecting to that notion referring to it as absurd, especially since the good doctor purportedly had nixed the concept...ha ha ... busted!!!!!! cluck cluck cluck
Does anyone see the irony that if I were posting the very same comments today, apoc, mpom, allamginger, fletch, run-run, and yes, even gman would be extending invitations to join the pumperhood??!!?? instead of gathering like a pack of hungry wolves (or chickens in mpom's case)...except for gman who tends to stay on the more polite side, "chicken little" remarks notwithstanding.....
notice i left out whoyadaddy who i think maintains some practical reservations about the near-term shareholder implications of this new set of developments - and i have to apologize for one of my recent reply-posts to him that was rude and reactionary...
and here's another...keep in mind these posts were met with derision...look up ghritz' replies - they were particularly contemptuous!
oct 20, 2013
A r/s for APDN is not a matter of if, but when. The company has waaaayyyyyy too many shares o/s (750mm undiluted: diluted?) for it ever to escape penny stock status, which precludes them from listing on a major exchange. People who think the pps is going to $1 anytime soon are confusing hopeful dreams for reality, and even at that farfetched level, the company still couldn't qualify for an up-listing!
My take is that many of the investors remain unaware of the implications of having nearly a billion shares o/s in relation to pps and a future chance at getting on a major exchange. As a result, you'll get posters pointing to one stock or another that went from sub-dollar to multiple-dollars, but they conveniently overlook the original number of shares o/s, which will invariably be far less than 750,000,000!
Common sense and simple arithmetic back me on this one...gl
for those posters who have a short memory... i posted the following comments last october in the face of many hostile & derogatory comments... those same posters have now completely reversed their positions... and are still lashing out against my recent comments! kRazY
oct 19, 2013
It's clear that a r/s is in APDN's future as they have way too many shares o/s for the pps to make much headway past penny stock status. This presumes they'll be shooting for an up-listing at some point, which is also likely if the business really begins to gain traction.
A r/s for an up-listing would be a positive if it were accompanied by a significantly more robust operating profile than the one at present.
Also, if they did a r/s at today's price it'd be more like a 100/1, and definitely not 10/1!
Lastly, doesn't the company need s/h approval to conduct a r/s? I'm not sure on this last point.
oct 19, 2013
I'm not sure why anyone's worried about a r/s with APDN. So long as the business is progressing, consolidating the shares and positioning to up-list would be logical. It's when the r/s is done for window dressing that it tends to backfire.
I think you'll see that Hayward will switch his position once it looks like the company has an opportunity to meet listing requirements for nasdaq, etc. That would open the door to a broader investor base and better access to cheaper capital.
i thought they indicated already that they're looking to uplist? also, the 500,000,000 auth shares provides plenty of room to dilute - and if what you're saying is true, it sounds like mgt actually had to be reigned in...
it's also possible that there's something of "amateur hour" going on as a result of having a CFO who's not suited for the position. posters can lash out all they want in her defense, but anyone on wall street would question the choice of a college treasury administrator to be cfo of an emerging biotech company that's on a path to uplisting and hopefully reaching the next level. it's sad when investors turn so emotional that they won't/can't question anything mgt does...like their dubious choice of cfo in this case...
the RS will allow them to uplist by raising the pps - at the same time apdn will try to raise it high enough to give them a cushion for when they proceed to recapitalize, which will then drive the pps back down again...
while many investors have criticized this viewpoint of mine, you'll notice that they're also waiting on the sidelines to see how things play out... so in effect they try to shoot the messenger, but follow his (my) lead at the same time!
why do those posters lash out and say all is "a-ok" but not start buying shares now hand over fist? because they know - much to their chagrin - that shang has been/is spot on with his assessment of the evolution of these new developments....
gman - if you read my posts, i did calculations based on a 1/40 split as well as a 1/60 split, and so there was no "legerdemain" on my part. (apoc will like this word) . Rather, a case could be made that mgt is not being totally on the up and up by characterizing the new proposal as a "reduction" in authorized shares without providing a clarifying footnote.
i appreciate you being able to see what i've been trying to get across about the "effective" increase in authorized shares, if not the reference to "chicken little"..lol...this is not a scare tactic, it's just facts.
i also have never said mgt is going to be reckless in conducting new issuances, but rather use shares to REALLY recapitalize so they don't have to keep doing ad hoc incremental offerings on a last minute basis...there's a reason to have so many shares set aside and i believe it's to get apdn out of the constant equity financing mode once and for all and open up some banking and other capital market channels.
so, if they're going to finally get the balance sheet up to snuff and do it with the participation of higher tier institutions they'll need to offer lots of shares and at a discounted price to induce those investors to buy.
i'm assuming apdn has been working with an investment bank lining up investors and setting up for the new offerings.
i think a lot of outside investors reading this board would view my outlook (needling comments aside) as logical and highly likely given the transitional path that apdn is clearly on.. that is, RS/Uplisting and a likely Recap - and offerings to bring in strong hand institutional investors...
i'd rather err on the side of assuming the dilution is going to be a big one rather than something akin to what they've done in the past....for the reasons stated above...gl (and yes, your multiple definitions of dilution elude me, especially insofar as how they are relevant in this case..but i'm open to perhaps missing something on that point)