The "safe" way is to wait until a bottom is tested and makes a few ticks above the first high ( rocket clears the tower ) before buying, then set the stop just below what is thought to be the low, then move the stops up until stopped out, think I've done that once.
Silver futures retested the 19.11 low at 19.13, last 19.19, about the same price level as when the market closed today. Minor i ii out of the way, less likely to make a lower low than 19.11
"One of the reasons"! No I no longer have the patience to hold stock for 6 months and make 30% when options often do 30% in a week or two or even less. But yes, invested in other areas, hopefully until I'm gone and the family will inherit. Grin, do have the discipline to hold calls until the 26th of Dec.
I don't follow fundamentals. For me all information is in the price, if price is increasing, buying pressure and demand / accumulation is going on, if price is decreasing people are selling and taking whatever they can get. Happens every day. If your model don't match price, perhaps the p/e you are using is not correct. People buy on expectation and a lot of people expect silver prices in the $30.00 / $33.00 range sometime this Summer, so they may be willing to pay up a bit to ensure they get the ride. People fear "missing the ride", until they are under water, then sell at a loss, its human nature and has to be overcome with mental discipline. And most of us have to learn the lesson over and over again . . . one reason I trade instead of invest in stock.
Sure, by saying 19.52 holds, you are saying that is the reversal point. The 17.75 may play out next month, so we may see SLW overbought at 21.79. Unless you have a reason to think 19.23 was the bottom ?? From 19.23 this mornings low looks the same as if we were in an up wave with a 1 2 EW count, I will investigate that a little, then, there are those gaps left at lower prices??
19.52 was likely the bottom, considering not much time has passed one might watch a bit longer before deciding. If 19.52 hold the chart I've posted on Stocktwits under $SLW dave 34 will likely play out. $SLW Wave 4 extends, Wave 5 now projects to 17.75
We all should care, make this a better place to work, someone should have caught my error last night and called me on it, would have been a good thing. 19.68 ish may be the low. watch for a turn there.
Redone the W4 retrace in silver, was looking at the wrong lower price last night late. C = A at 20.66, as long as 18.89 holds. Using 19.12 low this morning as the start of Wave C of 4 . . projection also depends on the low holding
NOT winning that Girl as a friend! . . . . Merkel compared NSA to Stasi in heated encounter with Obama
In an angry exchange with Barack Obama, Angela Merkel has compared the snooping practices of the U.S. with those of the Stasi, the ubiquitous and all-powerful secret police of the communist dictatorship in East Germany, where she grew up.
The German chancellor also told the US president that America's National Security Agency cannot be trusted because of the volume of material it had allowed to leak to the whistleblower Edward Snowden, according to the New York Times.
Livid after learning from Der Spiegel magazine that the Americans were listening in to her personal mobile phone, Merkel confronted Obama with the accusation: "This is like the Stasi."
Interest rates likely on the way up!! . . Poor 5-Year Auction With Huge Tail, Stick-saved By Primary Dealers
If Tuesday's 2-year auction was strong to quite strong, with a soaring Bid to Cover and a yield stopping through the When Issued, yesterday's 5-year auction of $35 billion in 5-year paper was ugly to very ugly.
But it was the plunge in Indirects from 50% to half that number, or 25.8% that was the true surprise, as it was the lowest Indirect take down since December of 2008!
This meant that the natural backstop, Primary Dealers, had no choice but to buy 62.4% of the final allocation, the highest allotment since April of 2009. In other words, while the near end of the curve is well bid, things are starting to go bump in the night at or around the belly of the curve. Look for much more pain if indeed the Fed were to announce the start of tapering today.
The dollar got a boost at the taper, but seems to just be a retrace up to 80.80 after a fall from 81.56, retrace over. Dollar should fall until the FED starts selling all the bonds on the open market = interest rates up = dollar index up. Could be years.