Often price pivot points are near the Yearly Quarter points, June 22 being one of those points if the year starts with Spring . . March 22nd , then Sept 22nd etc, not always on the date, but often +/- a week on a weekly chart.
Otto ??? You Ok? Price never goes up without retraces, but we have Higher Lows . . The JP Morg will have to cover shorts after this next retrace, they know it , look at the silver price movement back on the 19th, they were covering shorts and pushed price up about a buck in 5 hours !!!
Ref: 20.87 , Last 20.89 , All of the RSIs from 15 minutes to 5 hour are well above 50%. I think SLW price gets the 5th wave up to apx 25.70 with the W5 = W1 measured move I posted yesterday.
21.13 (Wave I ) - 20.03 = 1.10 . if Wave V = Wave I, from the current price Wave IV = 24.59. 24.59 + 1.10 = 25.69 . . . . abt the high on 3 / 19 , In other words the first wave may not need a deep retrace before finishing . Of course a pop and drop Monday to and from 25.69 / 25.73 would still get the retrace started pretty quickly.
Jim Sinclair thoughts about gold. 5 waves down for the C wave of this retrace, but not below 20.03 and not likely below 21.13 .......... Here are the 30 reasons, 23 new and 7 set in cement, of why the Bear phase in the bull market for gold ends this summer without any new lows.
1. The New definition of warfare is economic. Sanctions against Russia and the implications for the Petrodollar
2. FACTA and the universal long arm of the US government via any transaction internationally that passes even momentarily through the dollar as a contract settlement mechanism. The negative implications for the dollar's future as a contract settlement mechanism internationally.
3. EU split over sanctions due to Russian energy demand and Russian business interests.
4. Middle East Western Hegemony and Arab Spring is defunct.
5. Iran to assist in Iraq if asked, which is the failure of "Misssion Accomplished."
6. Iraq oil production challenged by ISEL.
7. Kurds emboldened by ISEL.
8. US relationship with Saudi Arabia and Qatar is strained.
9. BRICs uniting economically and politically as a standalone force.
10. China expands Yuan/Renminbi as an international currency.
11. China's China Sea energy tensions with Japan and Vietnam.
12. USA's position on the China Sea crisis where Japan is concerned.
13. The militarization of Japan.
14. The distinct scent of inflation.
15. General dissatisfaction with answers to questions to Chair Yellen regarding FOMC meeting last week
16. IMF reduced expectations of US economic recovery.
17. US Zombie Banks as defined by banks leveraged generally 30 to 35 times the size of their capital of total OTC derivative exposure.
18. Condition of the flooded municipal bond market.
19. Decline in volume with rise in value of equities, making equity price shadows our reality.
20. Totally irrational exuberance driven by hyper liquidity.
21. Hyper liquidity can become hyper inflation via the velocity of money in a crisis of confidence of the dollar. Therefore hyperinflation will be a currency motivated event.
22. Reaction in the momentum equity leaders of the last 2 years burning a public.
23. Strength of the utilities group which has historical attachment to tops in equity markets.
24. The one quadrillion, one hundred and forty four trillion dollars real size of the OTC derivatives market.
25. Economic underpinning of the dollar in jeopardy as recovery sputters globally
26. Absurd size of the Fed balance sheet and lack of marketability of significant size legacy derivative positions.
27. Taper of QE and little Belgium to the QE rescue.
28. China and Russia on the sell side of the US treasuries.
29. MY RA exposes consideration of invasion of retirement accounts, and GOTS (Get out of the system) as a defense strategy.
30. The huge drop out of the labor pool in the US, making employment figures sketchy at best.
23.65 , gap fill ,seems to be the least this retrace will run down to. 21.13 , a possible wave I high being the most. 21.30 fills the lower gap. My favorite because of the visual support there is the 61.8 retracement near 22.60
James Richard on You Tube
Catastrophic Outcomes May Come Faster Than Expected In world Currencies
$100.00 a day Jump in gold price etc
Of course, Up, but not straight up. perhaps 22.60 ... 26.60 .... back to 22.60 then the push to 28.50...... etc , its a long time until Sept, lots of time for plenty of ups and downs !