What pumping? the stock is close to 52 week low, and absent any bad news regarding science, cash burn rate or balance sheet. The company has nearly has $ 5 dollar net net cash on the balance sheet and the science has been sound and proceeding as expected. Plus, no Forms 144 or 19 ( insider selling or changes in insider and beneficial ownership) has been filed, when in fact those guys bought at $ 10. They have not sold a single share. What do they know that retail investors don't.
Some of us are merely pointing out these empirical facts. Your point would be valid if either the existing reports on the science were negative, or analyst had down graded the stock or cash burn rate was too high and the company was running short on cash. In contrast, all indicators are in the opposite and positive direction and the stock is languishing near the bottom and you call this pumping.
In twelve days once they report the numbers this stock will reflect two sets of huge positives: (1) Earning beat, due to low cash burn rate; (2) positive update on the clinical data and the initiation of one or more of the 4 studies they plan to augment the key phase one Cancer data.
For a CANCER stock hovering near the bottom with huge chunk of ill-informed 'seat of the pants' retail shorts offering additional fuel, I think it is reasonable that this stock has huge upside from here.
Retail shorts are just are the mirror image of retail longs: the dumb retail longs become too fearful at the extreme, they throw the towel and sell to smart money. Likewise retail shorts pile on at the extreme low and they cover too late. August 10 the company will report an earning BEAT, given moderate cash burn they have already hinted at, plus positive update on clinicals. Given the discount in PPS of any potential bad news, the stock will spike huge.
I said, "This July in the absence of any news it bottomed at 6.60 and intra day topped out at 10.59 at whopping 60 percent."
Here is how this will play out: On August 10 they will report earning beat by .03 - .05 cents, based on moderate cash burn rate. Plus, as is the norm, they will report positive progress on the clinical. Since, PPS has discounted the absolute worst, there will likely be huge sustainable spike. Upside reward is huge; downside risk is minimal. I would buy here with both hands; my two cents. If you are short, I would cover.
Until August 10 when they report downside is absolutely minimal- hard hard resistance at 6.60 - 6.80. Since hell has been discounted in the stock price, a slight hint of good news, this stock will fly to dizzying height, perhaps double from here. This July in the absence of any news it bottomed at 6.60 and intra day topped out at 10.59 at whopping 60 percent. Meantime, until August 10 if the past is any indication enjoy yet another PPS spike before August 10. Risk - reward definitely favors the long at today price. Unfortunately retails true to form bail out at the bottom or follow the heerdnear the top
At slightly above the 52 week low, Risk - Reward heavily favors the long side. Until the news come out on August 10, the downside is absolutely minimal with hard hard resistance at 6.60 -. 6.80. In contrast, the upside can be a double from here if the news is even moderately good. In the mean time, I would not be surprised if the stock spike yet again just before August 10.
They report on July 10:
(1) POSITIVE: Citigroup analyst has reiterated buy rating right before the earning release, putting his reputation on the line. Overall, a buy with price target 19 plus;
(2) Cash burn rate has been moderate in this quarter. Expect .02 - .05 cents earning beat. This will spike the stock huge; News Wire piece too hinted at this;
(3) None of the beneficial owners who bought at $ 10 have sold. How do I know? Because no Form 144 or FORM 19 (change in insider ownership) has been reported from the original owners who bought at 10.
(4) Most importantly, this is a CANCER sizzle stock. If there is a hint of good news, the stock flies beyond reason.
(5) It has way too easy to make money by buying big dips and dumping hard on any spike. I have played the buy in huge dips and dump on any spike three times and won. In the stock market nothing is that easy. Therefore, this time the bears will pay the price.
(6) Your down side is limited. I think 7.13 is the technical support, not 7.40 Assuming it breaks it significantly, still it 6.60 - 6.80 is your extreme downside before the news. The upside on CANCER SIZZLE stock with $ 5 net cash and clean science is huge.
DISCLOSURE: For the fourth time I re-entered with very tiny amount at 8.10 and bought a big chunk this morning at 7.13. And I expect to add even larger batch if it reaches near its 52 weeks low resistance of 6.60 6.80. This time I am not selling until the news come out.
Relax. In 12 days the company will report earnings and update on the clinical and prospects for phase two, etc. If the news is good, these daily and weekly trading shananigans will all be in the back view mirror and the stock will go up significantly, as hell has been discounted in the stock price.
Meanwhile, technically PPS is sitting just above a moderate technical support or 7.40. If it is breached, and stays below 7.40, the stock is headed back to strong support level or 6.60. In that scenario sell immediately and buy back below 7 or just hold. If the news is bad 12 days hence, and I do not expect it to be, the stock will break support and hit a new low. Hope this helps.
If this is the exact message you sent, I am sorry to say that while I agree with your sentiments and some of your observations, the management of CALA wil not take your message seriously because by any professional metric, whether it is professional writing, precision, elegance, and style it falls very short. I am sure you agree that if you wrote such an unprofessional, typo-filled narrative at your job you would be in trouble. Why would a publicly traded company takes a borderline amateurishly written prose seriously?
Please re-write and send it directly to the CFO only.
I have been trading this and it has been easy money- buy on 10 -15 percent declines and sell on spikes. But, selling on spikes has been too easy, and in the stock market too easy is too dangerous.
I think now is the crunch time: (1) If there is earning beat, given that hell has been discounted in the stock price, it could bolt to the upside big time; (2) There is absolutely no doubt that they will have some sort of positive news regarding the main product'; (3) the sector is heating up, and thus plenty of sympathy play opportunities. To wit: PGNX today; (4) Risk-reward favors the long. Most retail shorts, like retail longs who pile on at the top, are lemons. They pile on exactly at the extremely bottom. Dumb retail shorts will provide the additional fuel once the tide turns.
Could the stock double from here? Will analysts raise earning estimate going into the earnings, now scheduled for August 10? Technical set up -- cup with handle-- is excellent.
Highly unlikely, because the effect of analyst's downgrading after the news is always far greater than just reiterating rating. I think he knows something very positive is coming out and making a very good call just before earning release helps him stand out, helps institutional ' rating, thus higher salary and perks. Otherwise, he is stupid who unnecessarily hurts his career
From a technical stand point, there is strong resistance at 7.40 and a moderate resistance at 8.06. I do not think it will breach $ 8. The upside is 50 percent plus.
FUNDAMENTALS: I am placing a bit on the Citigroup's analyst reiterating both a buy and raising price, and just 5 - 10 days before the release of the quarterly numbers and update of the clinical data, when in fact he absolutely did not have to do this, but he took the risk and volunteered anyway. Unless either he is STUPID, or does not mind being reprimanded by his employer, or ruin his reputation for being reckless, I think he knows that the forthcoming news in five to ten days is VERY POSITIVE. The stock goes up, he looks like a genius, his 'institutional' rating goes up, etc. etc. hat is the key hunch I re-entered the stock and will not sell until the news come out. I just might make 50 -60 percent. My downside until the numbers come out is very limited. Upside, is huge. Technically, the stock is set for explosive breakout on the upside.
Except, Citigroup's is a prestigious institution and the analysts' reputation and potentially his job is on the line: the analyst is absolutely NOT required to reiterate a buy and raise price just before the release of quarterly numbers. Common practice and employer-advised practice is not to take the risk of changing the rating or the price on an equity just before the release of the numbers. If the numbers are not good and the update on the clinical is not off, this stock could hit the 6.52 low yet again. Since the analyst was absolutely NOT expected or required but VOLUNTEERED to make the call, if he is wrong it makes him look like a fool. It is one thing to make recommendation in the normal course of what a Wall Street analyst does. It is a complete another thing to break the rules, which is to wait until you know what the numbers and the clinical updates, and deliberately reiterate a BUY and raise a price just prior to the release of these numbers. That is why, I think he knows the news forthcoming is very positive, the news will be very good to spectacular; this analyst has an inkling and was willing to stick his neck out; because he would have made a very good call; hopefully raise his 'institutional' rating for the next award and huge pay raise. Incidentally, that is how the game is raised.
Why Citigroup Analyst Reiterate Buy and Raised Price in Time for Earning Data
In the first week of August CALA will report earnings plus will have to provide a meaningful update on clinical trials of its lead product and the other four they plan to initiate. The question is: why did the Citigroup Analyst initiated (or rather reiterated) a BUY with $ 15 price target just when CALA is to release 10Q which could either send PPS back to 52 week low, or if the news is good, 50 – 60 percent intra day higher.
I can’t imagine that the Citigroup analyst just on a hunch reiterated a Buy with higher price target. It is more likely that he knows something very positive is to be released and thus was willing to stick his neck out in the teeth of the forthcoming 10Q. He can’t be stupid enough to do this and damage his reputation. He could simply have done what most analysts do, as he has done in the past: wait until the numbers and data is out, reevaluate and update rating. Why in front of the data? On balance, I think the news will be good and the stock can be up by 50 – 60 percent.
Yes, the headline is confusing as Citigroup had initiated quite some time ago; accurate is to say that Citigroup 'reiterates' and raise price target from $ 11 to $ 15.
Now that it is down again 7 percent I bought first batch yet again. Will add if it goes down to near its now strong support at 7.40. But I very much doubt it, even with yet another day of market sell off. My hunch is that 8.06 (pre Citi coverage) will hold.
In one - two weeks CALA will either revisit 6.6 or will be up fifty percent or more higher as quarterly results and clinical trials updates are provided. My hunch is it is the later because otherwise the Citigroup analyst would not stick out his neck and reiterate buy with hefty price target in the teeth of forthcoming news, unless he knows something. So I bought and will add to my position.
Don't yell; no it is not a scam stock. It has legitimate drug in phase one and huge pile of cash, over 4 per share adjusted for liabilities. That said, the trading signals smart money knows nasty news will hit the market with 10Q release that could crater the stock to new lows, and smart money is orchestrating volume and pps uptick in order to cash out. Otherwise, why over and over and over again CALA simply can not hold gains. If I am right, the stock will yet again correct tomorrow. If the market does not cooperate, the stock can be down 15 percent the next few days. Otherwise, expect 10 percent decline from here in short order.
DISCLOSURE: Will buy for a trade at 15 percent lower, but will not take major position until the release of quarterly numbers in early July. I do not want to be caught holding the bag. Afterall, this stock has gone down from 19.38 to 9 today. Mr. Market knows something. Do not invest- too dangerous.
Trading pattern and statistical probability: It will correct yet again tomorrow or the next few days by 10 -15 percent. Between now and first week in July is an eternity. If there is no follow thru watch out below; smart money knows something very nasty is about to be reported and is making last ditch efforts juicing price and volume over and over again to get out of the stock. My two cents
analyst1, your guess is as good as mine. If there is a follow thru by a significant uptick, you will be proven right, and I will know that I sold too early. On the other hand, if yet again (for the umpteenth time) there is no follow thru, I would stay away until the news couple of weeks from now.
For now I will stay on the sidelines and take comfort that I scored a pretty hefty trade profit on two consecutive trading spikes in short order. In all humility I would chalk it up to being lucky rather than smart.
Regards and wish you all hearty profits.
analyst1, absolutely agree on management being somewhat tone deaf on communicating with the market, especially when there are zero earnings/sales, hefty cash burn rate and only phase one clinicals. For the short term, the trading may be the way to go.
DISCLOSURE: Got lucky and sold shares (bought between 6.75 and 8.10) at 9.25 on the previous uptick. Bought back yesterday 8.25 (although expected 7.50 technical resistance for buying second batch); and sold today at another 15 percent profit.
The stock behavior strikes me as binary: either smart money knows something positive is coming out and they are front running it' alternately, the news that will hit the wire will be so nasty and horrible that they are juicing the volume and price to get out. The fact that there is no follow through is extremely troubling, and signal something negative. That is another reason why I would rather take the short term profit than get hammered by a nasty negative surprise. That said, surely they could have communicated something to the market in between the quarterly report. The fact that they have not troubles me.
No doubt the time for release of significant news is nearing: (1) Two new studies and update on key product; near certain beat of analysts EPS estimate for the 2nd quarter.
The question is: will the news in the aggregate be good enough to dazzle the market? If so, the stock is headed to 12 -14 or higher. If not, the stock will languish. If it is front running, than obviously the news will be good.
You will find out in a two weeks.