My portfolio won't care if they make a deal because of Martin or despite him. I'd just be careful about reading too much into Martin's hints. He hasn't always been accurate in his predictions for his own stock. Phrases like short term can mean a different thing to different people.
Does Gerstal still plan on retiring and when? I'm certain to get many thumbs down, but the share price will rally sharply when he retires. No doubt Martin is extremely educated, but that isn't doing anything to benefit shareholder value. Martin had planned to sell some of his stock this year. I have to believe he wants more than $6.50 for his shares. Adding Dr. Pardoll, Dr. Sigal and Mr. Holtzman helps tremendously. I'm long now at an average cost of $5.10. I believe there will be a confluence of forces to make a good size deal by the end of 2016.
"How do they preserve IP with these seemingly incestuous consultant relationships?"
You raise a very good point. I think to an extent you have to go on faith and trust. There are certainly enough $$$$$ in the marketplace to go around. Compugen has gone a long way in the past 90 days towards putting themselves in the larger game.
The stock has been holding up well during the most recent correction in biotech. That certainly wasn't always the case here. I could see a rational for shorting at $12 after the secondary, but I can't understand the shorts still hanging on now that Dr. Sigal and Dr. Pardoll have joined the company. The short interest did drop by about 750,000 shares during the first half of April, but 1.7 million shares are still held short. We could see a decent short squeeze if Compugen will ever sell something.
It is too bad Gerstal can't unload this company for 5.6 billion [or even half that much] At least Dr. Sigal and Dr. Pardoll give CGEN some good exposure.
Brian Slingerland has an amazing track record for such a young guy. He was putting together huge deals by the time he was 30 years old and he is still under 40. Interesting to note though that he is a finance and acquisition guy rather than a doctor or a scientist.
He also says, with regard to the Compugen products that he thinks "that is the next wave that will come in immuno-oncology." Dr. Pardoll has said pretty much the same thing.
I appreciate all of your excellent insight into this company. I continue to maintain though that Compugen is more valuable to a large pharma company as a whole. The problem for shareholders, or at least in the near term, is Compugen will never receive a fair offer for the entire company with the stock currently priced at $7. Now if the company can make one decent size deal to get the share price closer to $20, then there is probably something to talk about regarding a buyout. Compugen is at a disadvantage here being a publicly traded corporation. It is much easier for a big pharma company to justify a rich offer to a privately held company that doesn't have a stated, current market capitalization.
They are trying to ink a deal with millions of dollars in upfront money. It doesn't make sense to focus on the $400,000 payment. The $400,000 is bupkis mit kaduchas.
Big Pharma is watching with or without a fancy press release. The timing of the news was good too. The stock was already in an uptrend and this news today has added another 4%.
The addition of Dr Sigal and Dr. Pardoll was much bigger news. The company is not looking for more Bayer size deals.
They have been trying for two years to put together deals with millions in upfront payments. I'm glad they didn't put much emphasis on this $400,000 payment. Although this news is good news, it isn't news they want to be focusing on now. This payment adds about one penny per share in cash.
In your opinion, what is the current worth of 15001, and what sort of discount would you anticipate taking to sell it by this summer?
Big Pharma has been betting on the horse and the jockey. CGEN finally has both. This should push the timing of a deal up considerably.
It will be no surprise to me if the entire company is sold before Gerstal retires soon. The handwriting is all over the wall now, but the current share price at $6 has to go up before they see a fair offer. I'm glad I'm on the long side now. How much would Bristol Myers pay for Compugen?
This stock and some other small cap biotechs are finally seeing a nice relief rally. I had expected it in February. It would be nice to see some legs to this 11% pop today. Perhaps $7.50 soon? Even I would have to admit that this stock was deeply oversold below $5.