I agree and definitely think it would be great if they could get it out GTA V next gen by June. I just have little confidence I their ability to do that. R* doesn't multitask well.
If I could decide. I'd go with next gen out in Fall '14 and PC Spring '15. Then maybe you get the flexibility of getting PC in either FY15 or FY16, wherever it's needed. My guess is, as I think you all know by now, that it will be needed in FY15, then again Evolve could possibly shock me and be a major hit, which may allow for PC in FY16. Spec has been right about the piracy issue and so if it's possible to do it this way, I would.
This was a no-brainer. Seriously, what long here didn't think this would happen?
I agree, keep it organic (e.g GTA San Andreas Mobile, etc.), but what do I know I'm sitting on the sidelines as the stock cruises up anticipating of R*'s inevitable GTA V Xbone/PS4/PC. BTW, TTWO is at 21x average forward FY15 EPS estimate of $1.01, which is the NASDAQ multiple right now.
This is the rationale - GLUU is the cheapest, a real "value" play. Then you look and see it trades at 37x forward eps, a peg of 58, p/b 8.74, p/s 3.85. What the hell is going in there? That whole category is a big effing bubble.
Spec, arguably some of that bubble is inflating EA's valuation too, though I think it's hopes for Titanfall and Kotick's hot air from last month.
Seriously? Haven't these people learned from Zynga? What the hell? Talk about a bubble.
Short Interest numbers are out and confirm that over a million shorts covered between 2/14 and 2/28, which affirms my thinking on the move from $19ish.
I believe rod's right on this. EA's diluted share count has been between 308M to 336M the last 10 years and today stands at about 313M.
Ah, an optimist with the "it could be worse." Yes, and I'll do you one better, THQI is bankrupt. Then again, there's the gold standard, ATVI, which while paying a 1% dividend since 2010 has gone from a weighted-average number of shares outstanding diluted of 1.311 billion FY09 to 1.118 billion FY12 and trades near its highest split-adjusted share price ever. So things could be better. Then again, Kotick has certainly received a ton of compensation during that time, and his most recent insider deal with Vivendi was an unbelievable abuse of authority, IMO.
So even with this 2 day sell off the sp is still up 20% since you went short (at about $17). Now I've already told you that you were right about a lot except for the direction of the sp, but you haven't said anything about your plan. What is it? Sell the news on the GTA V announcement(s), or is $12 your goal, or are you waiting for Z's FY15 guidance in 2 mos.? A curious mind wants to know.
Z told us his plan 20 years ago saying: "Basically, I had two goals in my career: one, to run a studio; the other, to run a business for myself." So Dornemann has hooked up Z with a full deal for $40 million (Slatoff at $25 million). Z will do what he can here and then bail out of the plane sometime during this contract.
I think you are right and that that's $4,752,000. I was confusing it with the performance based RUs (stock). It's good work if you can get it.
Form 8-K with new management agreement just filed. If I read it right:
$3,850,000 Signing Bonus
$2,970,000/Year Management Fee
$4,750,000/Year Performance-based restricted units of the Company (Highest Bonus Opportunity)
Also looks like everything eventually vests if there's a Change in Control. If I'm right about this that's a pretty sweet parachute.
This what likely hit the sp today. "Feb. Console/Handheld Software Sales Seen Down 35% YoY" StreetInsider Not sure if it will effect TTWO further but it may weigh on ATVI and EA unless the Xbone Titanfall giveaway boosts the latter.
Not according to the article, which you should read whether you believe it or not as it is well-written and far better than the garbage at seeking alpha or motley fool. The article says "the PS2 was selling more units than the PS4 at the equivalent point in its sales cycle."
I agree and would say it's adapting. As to consolidation, I think Ubisoft faces headwinds and could get taken out in the next year. The only crisis is for Nintendo and handhelds mobile games have eaten up the market. As for consoles, I think the end of Net Neutrality will cost gamers cash eventually but the replacement cycle will continue for MSFT and SNE and those two may grow at Ninetendo's expense.
I'm just not sure Spec. If TTWO had a solid Spring annual and R* a predictable schedule, you'd get that but I don't see a ton of difference in TTWO 2014 vs. TTWO Summer 2012 aside from losing the MLB legacy contract and owning a couple THQ games. Granted a year-and-a-half ago we got an unbelievable deal on a huge downside overreaction, and though it's not yet a "huge" upside overreaction, I'm wary. Then again, Z might surprise me announcing Q4 revs of $225-250M (with a major online component), EPS $0.15-$0.20, and guiding for $1.00-$1.20, but I don't expect it. Instead, I expect R* to announce the release of GTA V PS4/Xbone/PC within FY15, and that'll be that.