People thumb it down because they are YMB rah rahs. I've bought and sold about three times since my longest hold when I ran behind Icahn. You have selective memory. Last time I sold was AH after the last CC near $32.
Yeah, I know, but R* can't let it slip beyond March 31, 2017. Sure it's unable to do two IPs in a FY but RD is huge and will turn have RD Online so it's got to get done. Now though, with 6 thumbs down, rah rahs here and among analys, FY16 slate looking new IP heavy and light on R*, that's enough to keep me out until opportunity presents itself.
Not the 10 million at least one person here predicted. FY16 looks light on R* revs without another SKU. Avg FY16 rev est 1.55B. Z's FY16 guide should be interesting, perhaps he buys back more to improve eps. He's got the cash. Buyback would give Hickey another pump since he failed miserably with Evolve 5 million prediction. RDR2 is a lock for FY17, which should give some enough hope to hang on. IMO better buying opps will be present in 2015. GLTA, I'm lurking for now.
Given all the new ids on the YMB, the volume of selling, those saying it's oversold, nothing on the RDR2 front, and the fact that Yellen will be raising rates this year, another 20% lower could happen. I may start trickling if it sees $20.
A single player DLC that would certainly continue the strategy of using GTA to straddle the console cycle, which has worked really well thus far. Honestly, I'd think that longs would rather see that than even a new R* IP like Agent.
Lemme guess, the guy predicting $1B FY16 from GTAV is thumb downing you. lol. Did you see Pach's prediction - No RDR2 FY16 & New R* IP will be announced this year. Wow. I agree that what you said about the sp is possible. They've done a great job cleaning up the balance sheet and getting rid of big drains, but new IPs aren't going to do the trick and even after they give sh hope of a future R* game, the truth is no one knows if it'll be out months or years after announced.
Homer, do you know how they'll book the revs on Heists? Maybe like DLC? I think TTWO has got to have some of that Heists revenue in FY16 though the PC delay (3rd time? 4th?) into FY16 should help what looks like a light FY16. FY15 is low-balled, Z will hit it. However, without news from R* fairly soon on something else in FY16, TTWO's sp will have more problems.
Yeah, but I miss rusty. He was a better YMB resident skeptic than I.
As for R&D expenses, I've no clue. I'm not sure what at TTWO qualifies as R&D expenses vs. a job costs attributable to a specific game. Games in progress would seem to be: GTA V Heists and DLC, Sid Meier's Starships, NBA2k16, WWE2k16, Battleborn, and Hanger 13. Perhaps the R&D could be a different engine? Also, presumably Agent and RDR2 are being worked on.
IMO FY16 continues to use GTA to straddle the console cycle, which has worked really well thus far. The one thing that still kills me though is R*'s continued inability to put two IPs out in a FY.
Wow, you're negative now? Interesting. You should've got out with me in AH near $32 after the CC. Time for longs to nag R* for Heists + Agent or RDR2 might save the sp. Relying on new 2K IPs is risky. Silver linings are: Z set guidance for the Q4 so low a miss is unlikely; Lanie hasn't sold shares since October; R&D went up almost 30% last Q so someone's working on something, hopefully R*; and cash & short term investments went up about $126 million from Q2 to Q3.
BTW, Hickey's 5 million estimate for Evolve is exactly what I said it was "full of it."
You're forgetting BL IP for next gen, which should be very good and definitely help with any weakness caused by that vocal minority Homer speaks of. IMO Z easily meets Q4 guidance. The next cc will be all about F16 guidance. Longs should really look for news out of R* before then, that's the linchpin. I got nothing going since selling AH last cc.
You're right and it may come eventually. I think today is a sell the news event and that TTWO should be able to keep the current multiple and improve it if Evolve gets BL or even BL2-like reviews and/or R* gets some news out. I would not at all be shocked to see a Gearbox deal be made either. Also, your absolutely right that the large number of shares short relates purely to the convertible.
Same exact thing happened to me last year or so. I'm sure some remember. Let the daytraders finish their game this week and I'm sure they go away. A lot of folks here right now are the 24-48hr types.
I didn't get your picture yet, but I'm glad you're so obsessed. I'm on the sidelines with the $2.50 I made last nigh AH, you jag.
I thought my post was friendly considering I bailed last night. Yes, Kool Aid, you've ridden TTWO up and down for years. Save the Champagne for when you cash a check. GL, I'll be spectating. BTW, it looks as if some were hoping for news on FY16 or RDR2?