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Nuance Communications (NUAN) Message Board

sheepherder1976 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2015 4:34 PM Member since: Dec 2, 2005
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  • Reply to

    WOW

    by senala1 Apr 15, 2015 8:51 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Apr 16, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    You're a funny guy. You're last two posts replying to mine just make stuff up. That's very strange.

  • Reply to

    WOW

    by senala1 Apr 15, 2015 8:51 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Apr 16, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    People thumb it down because they are YMB rah rahs. I've bought and sold about three times since my longest hold when I ran behind Icahn. You have selective memory. Last time I sold was AH after the last CC near $32.

  • Reply to

    WOW

    by senala1 Apr 15, 2015 8:51 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Apr 16, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    Yeah, I know, but R* can't let it slip beyond March 31, 2017. Sure it's unable to do two IPs in a FY but RD is huge and will turn have RD Online so it's got to get done. Now though, with 6 thumbs down, rah rahs here and among analys, FY16 slate looking new IP heavy and light on R*, that's enough to keep me out until opportunity presents itself.

  • Reply to

    WOW

    by senala1 Apr 15, 2015 8:51 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Apr 15, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Not the 10 million at least one person here predicted. FY16 looks light on R* revs without another SKU. Avg FY16 rev est 1.55B. Z's FY16 guide should be interesting, perhaps he buys back more to improve eps. He's got the cash. Buyback would give Hickey another pump since he failed miserably with Evolve 5 million prediction. RDR2 is a lock for FY17, which should give some enough hope to hang on. IMO better buying opps will be present in 2015. GLTA, I'm lurking for now.

  • Reply to

    Q4 '15 Estimate

    by mmxliv652 Feb 24, 2015 2:24 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Mar 6, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Given all the new ids on the YMB, the volume of selling, those saying it's oversold, nothing on the RDR2 front, and the fact that Yellen will be raising rates this year, another 20% lower could happen. I may start trickling if it sees $20.

  • Reply to

    Q4 '15 Estimate

    by mmxliv652 Feb 24, 2015 2:24 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Mar 2, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    A single player DLC that would certainly continue the strategy of using GTA to straddle the console cycle, which has worked really well thus far. Honestly, I'd think that longs would rather see that than even a new R* IP like Agent.

  • Reply to

    Q4 '15 Estimate

    by mmxliv652 Feb 24, 2015 2:24 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 27, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    Lol. I'll let you know when I make my next TTWO trade. You should've got out with me in AH near $32 after the CC.

  • Reply to

    Q4 '15 Estimate

    by mmxliv652 Feb 24, 2015 2:24 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 27, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Lemme guess, the guy predicting $1B FY16 from GTAV is thumb downing you. lol. Did you see Pach's prediction - No RDR2 FY16 & New R* IP will be announced this year. Wow. I agree that what you said about the sp is possible. They've done a great job cleaning up the balance sheet and getting rid of big drains, but new IPs aren't going to do the trick and even after they give sh hope of a future R* game, the truth is no one knows if it'll be out months or years after announced.

  • Reply to

    Q4 '15 Estimate

    by mmxliv652 Feb 24, 2015 2:24 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 25, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Homer, do you know how they'll book the revs on Heists? Maybe like DLC? I think TTWO has got to have some of that Heists revenue in FY16 though the PC delay (3rd time? 4th?) into FY16 should help what looks like a light FY16. FY15 is low-balled, Z will hit it. However, without news from R* fairly soon on something else in FY16, TTWO's sp will have more problems.

  • Reply to

    Cheap

    by davejonas42 Feb 19, 2015 11:44 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 20, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Yeah, but I miss rusty. He was a better YMB resident skeptic than I.

    As for R&D expenses, I've no clue. I'm not sure what at TTWO qualifies as R&D expenses vs. a job costs attributable to a specific game. Games in progress would seem to be: GTA V Heists and DLC, Sid Meier's Starships, NBA2k16, WWE2k16, Battleborn, and Hanger 13. Perhaps the R&D could be a different engine? Also, presumably Agent and RDR2 are being worked on.

    IMO FY16 continues to use GTA to straddle the console cycle, which has worked really well thus far. The one thing that still kills me though is R*'s continued inability to put two IPs out in a FY.

  • Reply to

    Cheap

    by davejonas42 Feb 19, 2015 11:44 AM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 19, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    Wow, you're negative now? Interesting. You should've got out with me in AH near $32 after the CC. Time for longs to nag R* for Heists + Agent or RDR2 might save the sp. Relying on new 2K IPs is risky. Silver linings are: Z set guidance for the Q4 so low a miss is unlikely; Lanie hasn't sold shares since October; R&D went up almost 30% last Q so someone's working on something, hopefully R*; and cash & short term investments went up about $126 million from Q2 to Q3.

    BTW, Hickey's 5 million estimate for Evolve is exactly what I said it was "full of it."

  • Reply to

    Yes, the good (bad) old days for sure IMO

    by homersby Feb 10, 2015 9:16 PM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 11, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    You're forgetting BL IP for next gen, which should be very good and definitely help with any weakness caused by that vocal minority Homer speaks of. IMO Z easily meets Q4 guidance. The next cc will be all about F16 guidance. Longs should really look for news out of R* before then, that's the linchpin. I got nothing going since selling AH last cc.

  • Reply to

    Evolve Critics Awards

    by budfockz Feb 9, 2015 4:06 PM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 11, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Bud see user ratings and reviews at metacritic.

  • sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 4, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    You're right and it may come eventually. I think today is a sell the news event and that TTWO should be able to keep the current multiple and improve it if Evolve gets BL or even BL2-like reviews and/or R* gets some news out. I would not at all be shocked to see a Gearbox deal be made either. Also, your absolutely right that the large number of shares short relates purely to the convertible.

  • sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 4, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Same exact thing happened to me last year or so. I'm sure some remember. Let the daytraders finish their game this week and I'm sure they go away. A lot of folks here right now are the 24-48hr types.

  • sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 4, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    I didn't get your picture yet, but I'm glad you're so obsessed. I'm on the sidelines with the $2.50 I made last nigh AH, you jag.

  • Reply to

    Wow!!!

    by the_maverick_trader Feb 3, 2015 5:36 PM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 4, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Visibility has to be in the discussion given two brand new 2K IPs in the next 5 quarters. R* is the linchpin for FY16.

  • Reply to

    Wow!!!

    by the_maverick_trader Feb 3, 2015 5:36 PM
    sheepherder1976 sheepherder1976 Feb 4, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    I thought my post was friendly considering I bailed last night. Yes, Kool Aid, you've ridden TTWO up and down for years. Save the Champagne for when you cash a check. GL, I'll be spectating. BTW, it looks as if some were hoping for news on FY16 or RDR2?

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