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Sonic Corporation (SONC) Message Board

shiftsuper175607 172 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 12:45 PM Member since: Oct 26, 2002
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  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 26, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I have had that poster on Ignore for a good while. I do that seldom, so there must be good reason.

    I find it odd you follow them to such a degree and then defend them.

    Are you sure you are not that poster with a different ID?
    It happens all the time on Yahoo.

  • Reply to

    Bought more

    by jmkdog Mar 25, 2015 5:43 PM
    shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 25, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    Aren't they doing the spin off to unlock value?
    What is to fear about that?

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 25, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    We have a CEO who owns shares,so, we can always hope.
    I added shares a couple of weeks ago.
    The new auditor is another sign to me that this company is legit.
    You don't subject yourself to a new auditor if there are things you are hiding.
    I am holding for the long term, when all the projects are up and running.

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 24, 2015 8:03 PM Flag

    When heavy oil is shipped in pipelines they add diluent to it to allow it to flow.
    The diluent is gas liquids. PGH could use these gas liquids to dilute it's heavy Lindbergh oil. It saves/makes money two ways
    1)They don't have to buy it at market prices.
    2)They get to sell there gas liquids at a better price as a blend in the heavy oil

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 24, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    my opinion...
    The FFO number is a little negative now. Because oil is les than $50 WTI.
    But, then again...they may be selling more oil than planned.

    There is still downward pressure with oil pricing because production is still increasing. Then, we have the supposed storage getting full issue. Then again, Yemen may be taken by ISIS and the Saudia Arabia threatened. So, geopolitical events could cause a big change.
    As someone recently said; "It is complicated."

    I am trusting the company to "weather the storm" until everything becomes more clear. I am not worried about this quarter as they stopped all unnecessary spending and they sell a lot of oil. They next quarter could even be the worst of the year...but I don't see the 3rd Q as being as bad.
    Saudi may concede defeat and cut production, or they could double down and push this to the max.
    How many years will it take for world production to stop swinging and find a medium? what will the price be that gives that result? We are still very early into all of this.
    I like PGH for what they have done to weather this and that the Lindbergh project is mostly paid for in phase 1.
    So, I am holding my shares at this time.

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 24, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    You were the one that called me on "Magic thinking".
    I was just showing the poster how the price "could" get to $6
    I did not even state any probably of that...or is it was my opinion.
    My answer's sole purpose was to answer that post. Get it?

    My point is the company says they will be cash flow neutral at $50 WTI
    That does not include hedging...or would would not say WTI $50 with certain % discounts for Light and Heavy.
    You stated all their costs but didn't sell their oil, so how can I discuss that?

    Some production is Ngas. It is complicated.
    Have they realized the hedge gains? Maybe they are still deciding on that. maybe they will lock them in when oil hits $15/bbl, haha

    I have as real of expectations for this company as anyone. I know that oil can go lower, short term. But, then hedges will only gain in value. I also think Lindbergh will exceed stated projections. I used the lowest numbers of 71,000/boe/day that the company guides.
    What I said is possible. I hope they do that, and more.

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 24, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Ok, You showed their expenses.
    How much are you going to sell their oil for?
    71,000/bbls,day 365 days year equals
    25,915,000 barrels to sell

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 23, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    ca7777111,
    They reduced CAPEX by 74% down to $190-$210 million.
    It is something like $551 million less, not spent on drilling programs this year.
    That is how they are projecting break even, by spending so much less.
    They also lowered the dividend to save money.

    Yet, for this year the production totals are the same because of Lindbergh.
    They can sell that production at lower prices and still pay the CAPEX of $190-$210 million.

    They still have the $450-$550 million in hedges left. This money can go to debt reduction.

    This is how I came to my magical numbers.

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 23, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    What cash flow deficiency are you referring to?
    They project to be cash flow neutral at mid-point $50 WTI with 12% discount light and $29 on heavy
    Have you not studied the latest presentation and guidance?

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 23, 2015 8:34 AM Flag

    Here is the link to copy and paste. see if it works.

    http://www.ino.com/blog/2015/03/this-shiny-metal-could-be-in-bargain-territory-for-value-investors/

  • Article with 3-23-15 date at INO dot (om

    The part is interesting about the demand increase over the next 4 years...more than the last 10 years.

    So, demand is growing.

  • More info in the article I mentioned in my last post...there is much more there...charts, graphs, etc

    I thought the IEA report contained some rather bullish long-range forecasts, not the least of which is that the IEA believes global demand for refined products will increase 2.0 million barrels per day from where demand is today by the 4th quarter. They believe low fuel prices will continue to increase global demand, pushing demand for refined products up over 95 million barrels per day by year-end. I think their estimates may prove to be quite conservative. A year after the last big drop in oil prices that occurred in 2008, demand for liquid fuels increased by 3.3 million barrels per day in 2009.

  • This is a good article at oilprice dot (om

    1st paragraph...
    On St. Patrick’s Day the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil production from three of America’s largest shale plays is in decline. The EIA is forecasting that total U.S. oil production will be in decline in the 3rd quarter.

    The South Texas Eagle Ford, North Dakota’s Bakken/Three Forks and the Niobrara in Colorado & Wyoming are in decline. Since horizontal shale wells have very steep production decline rates (more than 50% in the first year), the oil supply “glut” will be corrected by market forces. Shale plays require continuous drilling or they quickly go on decline.
    ________________
    Do a search on the title name og this thread and find the website named oilprice

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 22, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    That's you response? I gave you a detailed response. I certainly didn't say anything about $100 oil.
    I knew you were a joke.

    Off to ignore for you. I won't waste another second with you.

    You are here for a reason. I guess now, it is just to be a "cry baby"

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 22, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    OK, I'll tell you how it is possible. No one knows what the price of oil will be, but most everyone agrees that eventually it will be higher.
    But, one thing we know is that hedges are in place this year and to a lesser extent next year.
    They take the $500 million in hedging gain and pay off $500 million in debt.
    Next year, they also hold all CAPEX to minimum and pay off as much debt as possible.
    I pick $300 million for the number.
    The price of oil recovers in two years...maybe even over shoots due to shortages.
    PGH sells production at higher prices, starts a moderate drilling program and Lindbergh reaches 16,000 barrels.
    Then, they raise the dividend back up to .04/month
    There you have it, $6 dollars /share

  • shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 22, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    That may be true, but how long for GE to get to $55.88, MSFT to $94.33, or GOOG to $1232.77 ?

    Some could argue that PGH has a chance of doubling first.

    If true, Then what happened in the past, or even your cost basis is irrelevant. You can not change any of that. You are where you are today and the goal is to go forward the best you can.

    If PGH is the best way to earn a possible double, then stick with it.
    If not, find that investment and go there. Or, a mixture of several, as most people do.
    PGH is the only oil stock I own at this time.

  • Reply to

    Were screwed

    by srlabelle1 Mar 20, 2015 5:04 PM
    shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 20, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    You had me until you said; "Like Slick said makes sense."

    Then the bells and whistles went off...warning! Will Robinson...warning!

  • Reply to

    PGH Issues to Debate

    by bananahouse171 Mar 16, 2015 11:28 PM
    shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 18, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    hardmetalman1,
    They also have exchange rate hedges, as I posted on this thread. Info is in the January presentation on their website.

  • Reply to

    Crickets

    by chaney34 Mar 18, 2015 3:06 PM
    shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 18, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    Ok, I'll it...Hurray! A long way to go though.
    Silver should be $25-30 fair market value.

  • Reply to

    PGH Issues to Debate

    by bananahouse171 Mar 16, 2015 11:28 PM
    shiftsuper175607 shiftsuper175607 Mar 17, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    bananahouse171,
    What are you trying to do here? You are here for a reason.
    Don't you know that PGH ALSO has hedging for exchange rate risk?
    As of 12-31-2014 worth $55 million.

    What are you going to say now?
    How about sorry, I am wrong.

    Hedged at exchange rates of between $0.94 and $0.98 USD/Cdn
    - Total value of hedge book at December 31, 2014 is approximately $55 million

SONC
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