In fact, the company have built its sale force for more products than current 3 as CEO hinted.
Post, it is not as negative as you are seeing based on many reports that have read. In general, any system that tries to limit specialists won't survive. It is like my HMO insurance, I have to see my primary doctor first before going to specialist. While I start to see specialist then he decides next appointment and the drug I need. Specialists are so busy that you have to get next appointment in 1 to 3 months.
After all, 30 million new patients will be added to the system. HZNP patients will be older people who take drugs daily for months and years.
The situation is dynamic and most things are changing for better. Most companies who provide insurance for their employees cannot ignore quality of care and the required medicines. The way you are describing it here is like having minor things like a cold to see a doctor and doctors can prescribe only generic cheap drugs.
pb, I noticed you refer to Duexis as $170 and Rayos as $20 net. You probably mean revenue since net refers to after deduction of all expenses.
Thanks guys for your posts
Any time I read your analysis I become more eager to know why some shorts are insisting to get involved into a stock like HZNP that is gong to double in a few months or a year.
Aren't they scare from this smart management?
HZNP hinted them to cover with no delay when it said that 2014 will be positive. It did not give an income range but just a very low revenue so they can have a chance to cover below $8.
Now back to you post, $25 m net for Vimovo is not possible. The minimum Vimovo net will be $50 m in 2014 and that is why 10% of it or $5 m will be Pozen share. To have $50 m net then revenue should be around $125 m. As med said, vimovo rev was $23 m in The last quarter. $25 m to $30 m is possible for each 2014 quarter. I settle for $110 m revenue and $40 net for Vimovo 2014,
I think shorties were using their tricks to stop Hz momentum and shorted during the day but covered before the close. Around 640k shares were bought or covered in the last minute. The stock will battle with hedgers for next few weeks and months anyway since they are not happy about current prices. I do not think they have any choice but to cover and join longs before losing more.
This is from Hz filing
"The Notes will bear interest at a rate of 5.00% per year, payable in arrears on May 15 and November 15 of each year, beginning on May 15, 2014. The Notes will mature on November 15, 2018, unless earlier repurchased or converted.
Prior to August 15, 2018, the Notes will be convertible, at the option of the holders thereof, only under the following circumstances:
• during any calendar quarter commencing after the calendar quarter ending on June 30, 2014 (and only during such calendar quarter), if the last reported sale price of our common stock for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during the period of 30 consecutive trading days ending on the last trading day of the immediately preceding calendar quarter is greater than or equal to 130% of the conversion price for the Notes on each applicable trading day;
• during the five business day period after any five consecutive trading day period, or the measurement period, in which the trading price per $1,000 principal amount of Notes for each trading day of the measurement period was less than 98% of the product of the last reported sale price of our common stock and the conversion rate for the Notes on each such trading day; or
• upon the occurrence of specified corporate events."
Based on above, the note holders should not think about conversion until after June 2014. That is almost 7 months from now and I think Hz will replace the current note with another during this time period.
Good luck to all longs and especially to those who contribute to this board.
Happy to have a winner in our side now.
Pb, thanks for different opinion.
We know Hz has to show a good collateral to get a good financing deal. So, what is better than having $200 m rev and positive non-gap income in 2014.
I believe Hz will rise to much higher prices but this $150 m deal may limit it unless the company enters in another refinancing deal with better terms and higher money. There is dilution scare and Hz has to act fast before it affects its progress.
Let me bore you with some numbers to see what other option Hz had. If the company borrowed $55 m with interest rate of 12%, then it could pay $35 for vimovo and add $20 m to its current cash position ( let skip financing costs at this time). At the end of 2014, Hz has to pay $6.6 m for this loan at 12% and $8.7 for the existing load at 17% or sum of $15.m. The advantage is at least 25% tax benefit and no share dilution scare.
However, with current note at current stock price, Hz is ($7,22 - $6.71) * 28 m + $18.7 m = $33 m behind or lost money. The condition gets worse as the stock price rises. At $10 price, the loss to the company will be about $110 m . That is why med_investor is right and CFO should be more careful about these deals that will cost the company and arm and leg and put a cap on stock price. When Hz shows good rev and positive non-gap income then it can get a favorable deal and a note much higher principal and very low interest rate as many company in this sector have done.
Thanks for your input. I still do not understand some points.
1- what is cost to Horizen when conversion happen at $7? Is it $5 .36 or $6.71 per share assuming Horizen pays with cash?
2- So, based on first question, do the counter parties are liable for the diff of $7-$5. 36 or $7-$6.71 per share?
Thanks again for your input.
1- Why did the company paiy $18.7 m ($23.38 m including interest at 5% for 5 years)? I know the company wants to prevent further dilution to the shares. Does the company expect future prices to go much higher than the current prices or it be acquired at significant higher price than thin one digit current price?
2- Do the counter parties pay when price is above $6.71 at conversion? I want to be sure it is to above $5.36.
3- The counter parties make mony as long as the pice stays below $6.71. In this case, they have 2 options :
a)buy shares as much as they can below the cap price to protect their interest, b) try all tricks to push the price under $6.71 if they can.
4- On the other hand, it is in benefit of HZNP to push the price above $6.71.
Happy T day.
Some products are hot. Others, on fire. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) has both, and that's not necessarily a good thing.
Early reports had a demo version of the Mac maker's new iPad Air sparking and exploding in a Vodafone store in Canberra, Australia.
I am negative for year now.
I don't think shareholders will see any money.
CRUS management are opportunist that only care about their pockets.
BSX is in its way down now.
This is an scary scenario for shorts. Smart ones will do something right now where the stock is low.
First day 7/19: $4.64 to $4.03
Second day 7/22: $4.03 to $3.90
Third day 7/23: $3.90 to $3.66
Fourth day 7/24: $3.66 to $3.63
If history is a guide here, tomorrow will be a bad day for AMD.
Those who bought below $3 a few months ago (before 5/1/13) are rushing to sell before their profits evaporate.
Then why some retails are being fooled to buy now?
Many institutions dumped their shares and poor unstable retails are holding too many shares now.
That is a recipe for more and more drop in coming days.