SDRL stock shows Sickness, (a term i refer to as a huge chance its going lower)
LINE stock (shows moderation) something that seems to have already set the low and may possibly test it but hey it could go higher too.
Anyone owning SDRL (most are here for the divvy) there is a greater than reasonable chance it gets HALVED, yes thats right , it could be $2.00 instead of current $4.00 (not saying this will happen) but it can!
Line stock divvy on the other hand pays approx: 0.24/monthly, And I dont see that going down much, maybe .18 or .20 or even same as .24/monthly
Swapping out at a differential of 9-10% from SDRL stock to LINE stock, then wait for SDRL to drop after divvy cut and get back or stick with LINE.
single biggest reason for smartphone existence is???
1. make calls, texts, FB app, restaurants, directions, search for business or directions, Price comparisons, using website apps and or gaming and or apps in general.
Other than calls and texts it is for search, ie, all of the above.
A couple of points, FB resonates well with the 26-59 crowd (the ones with some money) not to mention 60+ year olds have lots of money and they use the smart phones too.
DINNER Restaurants, bars, 26-59 yr olds crowd, tend to use YELP to search these places not GOOGLE,
FB just announced they will be spending 50-70% more (for what?) I think they have their eyes set on YELP:
1. they like the fact that their own users use Yelp a lot for reviews of places to eat and shop
2. Yelp fits in with FB in that it is Mobile oriented, ie , great for smartphones, mobile phones as the world is heading towards mobile usage and away from desktops.
3. The price of yelp stock is down to near 1/2 of its all time highs, great opportunity for FB to come in and scoop up Yelp
4. By buying Yelp, FB can then monitor your favorite places by search, review and get closer to small buisness that are on Yelp, for a greater combo of advertising dollars, imagine the ease of yelp with the talented mgmt of FB streamling into one and making tons of money.
5. Small biz & Yelp, are not exactly doing great, this Q was the first sequential decline in new growth, thats not good for yelp dollars as Yelp is growing by views and search but FB can help and buy this out and make it better by combining strengths such as Whatsapp!
I see this getting bought out by FB (better fit) or YHOO (not the best fit but complimentary fit)
Watched the stock last Quarters earnings in AH, it tanked on cross border fee issue, so this time around its not really that big an issue, coupled with being down in regular trading, i see a tad + bias going into earnings, hence I will play it small, no options but shares only. Bol!
I sold around 25.50
as a trader, I feel momentum is still not on the side of oil/energy sector,
be careful and take profit when you can.
there are always opportunities for $$
If this falls to below opening price, we will definitely re-visit 23.XX's but maybe one last time visit 22's
hit it out the ball park, excellent earnings, actually I have not seen any tech company this Q do anywhere as good as FB. .Atleast 5 bln mkt cap and above, FB blew the doors open on this. Truly surprised this one has a delayed response, in a couple of days when it moves its first 2-3 points up the whole world will want to jump in to take it to 90's, this ones a WINNER!
After the big fall to 21.XX, I see this as a trading opportunity, I would be a buyer below 24 for two reasons.
1. I see the chart lines from the last fall (27.XX to 21.xx) 24.XX sitting in the middle line. If your the type of trader that likes to buy in batches, ie, 20% now and 30% after it falls a bit more, than I would start to buy a little bit at 24.20 and below
2. The dividend which (if not cut) would be .24/share/mo
or about 12%, which is about the point where most investors buy in droves or will not buy for the fear of cut in divvy rate.
I do expect lower prices in oil and nat gas going fwd (next 2 months) or so, if they are not much below $75 for oil, then I believe we are at a point where the stocks have factored in that rate, but should we see $70 or $65, a risk (I am willing to take) as I dont see it going below $72. The stock could be back to the $15 level should we reach $65/pbl
For the moment, the share price is sitting in a sweet spot!
Not many sellers left to sell (except) the institutions that did not sell already and the buyers (not that many) as some funds are waiting for clarity of events to see where oil futures will settle in FEB and MARCH of 2015 or even APRIL and MAY of 2015, before they enter into the stock.
Heres my take, I see this as possibly retesting 23.50 levels, then on to $27+ as this would have made a higher low, since last low was around $22 and higher highs, higher than $27
What do you all think?
would like to hear from others.
As I have been saying since near 365$/share, this is not a growth company no more. I have been proven right! By their own admission, AMZN mgmt is saying that they are bringing down the revenues for next Q (basically) that is their #1 Q in earnings and they are ratcheting the estimates down 10%, or flat to this last Q, how is that growth??
Time for major, major COLLAPSE! dont know exactly when but while the S&P hits records and new highs, this stock is making lower lows!
The CFO departing in August was a tell sign, the loan from Bank of America to utilize Credit line, another tell sign, what dont you all get??
No Income, More Expenses has been the Mantra for a Decade or longer (ok, we get that) but lowering revenues on the Most important Q to a point where you are esentially not growing, how do you get a growth valuation?? More importantly how does Wall Street maintain this stock as a growth stock or give price targets of $100 to 150$ more than current stock price?? Thats just downright Manipulation! where is the SEC??
The stock should be HALVED! give them another 2 quarters and if you see poor or like performance, HALF them AGAIN! This is like a Rooftop with ice, can COLLAPSE any time!
SEE 250'S SOON!
14. also adding that nflx & hbo are taking amzn to the cleaners in streaming
15. Amzn music download is slowly dying, aapl, pandora, spotify killing that!
16. Amzn overseas growth is very slow
17 hgiher dollar going to decrease overseas sales as well
18 amzn cfo leaving was a sign worse yet to come!
19 amzn may have to pay for health care for workers, that has yet to be determined
1. decreasing revenue forecast for q4
2. no income for now
3. Fire phone flop (200 mln $ write off)
4. No drone services (lol!) ppl in countryside be shooting them down for kicks!
5. Sate sales tax collections in 40 of 50 states
6. Higher delivery costs
7. Lack of growth / revenues and margins
8. New competition from baba / fb/ twtr for ecommerce
9. New competition from msft/aapl/ibm/orcl on cloud
10. kindle/fire phone/ hardwares are flops, too much competition from aapl and msft
11. Prices on amzn are being matched with big box retailers, lie best buy
12. New commerce platform for customization going to kill fixed showroom businesses, those companies that cannot adapt to customization going to get hammered.
13. carter worth (chartist on cnbc) called it right on, when he said he forsees problems in the techinichals, he said that 20 days ago, saying the pattern after 5 yrs of triangular pattern was set to fall, it is happening!
feel free to add all other negatives, this has been story stock is on the downfall
All the hoopla surrounding Fire Phone, since its known to be a bust (by their own admission- AMZN mgmt) will write of near 200mln$ (197mln), they thought they would sell all these units at near cost so they can get new prime customers to save themselves some money on shipping and sell more products (that is the thinking of AMZN bezos) very smart man, claims Jeff Macke, problem with all that is, if your wrong, this is a 3 prong Disaster Attack on the company, lack of sales means = lack of new prime members, writeoff on the phones, 200mln$, then make all things worse, no new add on sales, which was the primary reason to offer at cost.
BEZOS has either lost his way or is getting to be an ordinary man. worse yet is the departure of CFO, I think he knew the SH#T was hitting the fan, he left at the right time, I am starting to see there is something that stinks in AMZN headQ!
How the heck is that even a growth company, let alone a hyper growth valuation company??
I realize no income and greater losses part (for wall street tech jumble on AMZN) Revenues coming down!
Fire phones (write offs are near 200mln$) the Kindles are dead in the water, new competition in cloud with MSFT, IBM, ORCL, AAPL, not to mention surface pro 3 , then adding to all that new competition with ALI BABA, then new competition with FB, TWTR on the front of E COMMERCE! This is a HAS BEEN STORY STOCK!
Buy long term calls! very little premium for April 2015 calls for the $40 strike price
I would buy all kinds of puts here, like the 300 strike or 295 or even 305 for 2 weeks down or 3 weeks down, should drop 7-10 points more on Monday, maybe 20. Its one thing to give hyper growth valuations, another to allow the justfication when the revenues are coming down for next Q. I am not surprised, it is not down 50 points, thats because of options expirations (weekly ) wait for it on Monday, to just get the downgrades it deserves, No Profits, Forecasting Greater Losses (all this is ok for a growth company) Heres the hammer knocker, LOWERING REVENUE GUIDANCE for BEST Q, being Q4, No way this is a growth company of any kind, its kind of like ice building on the roof, at any time this can COLLAPSE!
Two major concerns:
High Debt Load 1. divvy cut to pay off debt
2. stop building new ships
3. in this environment of higher interest rates (coming in a year or less), lenders dont want to lend at good rates to high debt load companies
Lower Oil prices 1. causes lower day rates
2. lower earnings, divy cuts,
3. coupled with higher debts, can have new builds come to a halt, thus eroding advantage SDRL has over comeptitors.
I really wanted to purchase some stocks at a discount, I chose LINE over SDRL as both seemed attractive in pricing. SDRL has tremendous risks vs LINE having less risk, I also agree with NOMURA that the gap has to be 1 bln and taken care of.
I see SDRL headed lower by upto 25% so I will wait to buy in around $20.80 or less.