private, could be around $14 or 15 share!
This is what I heard.
While I agree with your thesis, there is a little flaw, I don't think OIl is going back to 100$, maybe 85$, I see OIL at 50-64 $ for the next few months, maybe six months, then a slow climb towards $70. I am talking about WTI pricing. It is possible that Europe will be humming in 6-7 months, Asia (mostly china and India) growing, and AFRICA and LATIN AMERICA growing big with the Middle East. There is a lot of demand for Oil in South East Asia, China,India,etc. After China,India, you've got Indonesia,Pakistan,Malaysia,Vietnam,Phillipines all growing oil/gas needs, In India for example, there are over 1.3 bln ppl but in the US, there are only 380 mln ppl yet in the US there are 5X more Cars on the road. 20 years ago that statistic was 9 to 1, India is currently growing at a Faster clip than China, 6.5% vs 6 % for China. In the next 10 years, Indias population is going to grow by 20-23%, where is the OIL for them??? Chinese growth in next 10 years is estimate at 15%-20%, what about the US??? The growth rate here is expected to grow at 13.5% where are you going to find that much more OIL n GAS??
My point about short term rates is that it favors less debted drillers, ie, NE, long term, yes SDRL is best. I like NE for the moment with SDRL as my long shot play.
Dividend will not be cut for a while! As stated by CFO in Florida presentation, "...we are an MLP we pay dividends" was the response when asked if divvy will be cut!
Line Energy is well positioned for this down turn till early 2016, typically energy stocks and prices go up then.
I like the situation here, this is a Very good Deal if your a net buyer and hold a long position. Time to add!
Looks like it is forming a bottom. Gl 2 All!
If WLL stock goes below $25, pretty sure the odds for buyout are near 80%, a buyout would have to offer premium, thus bringing the price to at least, if not more than 31.
Now we can debate oil prices, Boone Pickens $70, Goldman Sachs $45, personally I like Andy Halls outlook, at 51-52$ range, he went long, said ...not saying
this is bottom for sure but long term higher prices". This was in april, asked again after Greek crisis, he said the same...longer term higher prices, you may recall Andrew Andy Hall former trader for Citibank who got $100 million bonus, as he made Citibank more than a billion dollars in oil trading, Andy knows Oil. Incidentally after Andy went long in April, Goldman Sachsraised oil price target from $40 to $45. Finally, it's surprising to see Oil futures react to a 5 rig gain in count after a drop of 900 rigs, makes me feel desperate traders pushing for lower oil.
WMB is playing a waiting game to decide. First, they want to maximize the buyout price for themselves, ie, ETE's offer should be raised or else WMB does not want ETE offer. Now Second, since WMB has made an offer for the remaining WPZ shares at a premium to their own stock price (which is nowbloated by buyout offer of WMB only by ETE) , what to do you ask? as I said WMB knows they have a near virtual OLIGOPOLY with rest of WPZ in pipeline infastructure, only real competitor is then KMI, ETE, now that said, they dont want to use terms like that so as to get in govts eyes, as the govt really doesnt, or has not bothered to step in and so, this may be the time to buy shares in WPZ as ETE is not in the best position to make a much higher offer for WMB, hence I see WMB announcing shortly,they are better of alone and will merge with WPZ. WPZ goes up and maybe WMB stays neutral or slightly down from here. buy all the WPZ you can, never refuse gifts from wall streeet....
Since Late April, this stock of LINE has been in a downfall, reflecting market sentiment that OIL has more pain and or slower upward trajectory. Stock looks like it is near Bottom, maybe oil has some more to go or maybe not. Stocks are independent at times, other times they are a future bet of the underlying commodity, ie, they bottom a few months ahead. I think the stock is telling us that we are near a bottoming process, be patient, its key, dont buy all at once, buy in steps, I became aggressive in the 10's, did not buy much in 9's, started buying in 8's again. Have to be patient, its just a matter of time (probably 2-3 weeks) then we will know if this was bottom or not. Just be patient!
it is frustrating, I cant argue with you about the stock sucking, but you have to be a net buyer when prices are down, buy slowly, for example, if you are looking to buy 300 shares, buy only 60 now, wait for a dip and buy 90 more, and if it dips more , buy more etc etc...patience will be rewarded. I have seen SNDK at 7 and then 14 months later it was 45$, then I sold and 2 months later it was 60$ I was also very lucky to have gotten into DOW, AXP, WFC during the financial crash, I made 60% in less than a few months, had I kept the stocks, over 5 years, I would have made 600%, be patient my dear investor, be patient..
As per Mgmt in recent Conference on June 23
"STRONG HEDGED BOOK"
"CASH FLOW POSITIVE" Just read his statement....
"TALKED ABOUT DISTRIBUTION" From the reading, he claims this is an MLP, we are to provide distributions, for me it means, no more cuts, he mentioned near 9-9.5% returns, pls see exactly in his statements. (This clearly signals no MORE cuts!)
I could go on and on of smaller positive points but look, here is what he is saying.
WE ARE WELL HEDGED
WE ARE STILL, UNDER BAD CONDITIONS MOVING ALONG AND BEING CASH FLOW POSITIVE!
Dont know what else you guys are thinking, but this is a SCREAMING BUY HERE!
Oil needs t o be $82-85 to get these companies really going, the new 85$ rate is like Old $100 rate because the costs of drilling have come down from: Technology, Drilling Supplier,(s), equipment, worker cost, cost cuts in general, and Both BBEP and LINE have bought companies to grow, they both need $80+ oil to lock in some big CFC (CASH FLOW CYCLE). BBEP can be a big big winner, if this happens, (not totally out of the question with oil hovering around 61, must break$ 62 on heavy volume to make an attempt for $ 70/bbl of oil (WTI) as Brent is already near $65
DEMOCRATIC AGENDA: Lower Medical Insurance Bills for those earning less OBAMACARE!
REPBLICANS: Get rid of Obamacare so Insurance company executives can make more money, prior to obamacare 50% was required to be paid in Medical Bills, now with OBAMACARE it is 80% required to go for billing.
DEMOCRATS want higher taxes from those making 250K and more
REPUBLICANS want BILLIONAIRES to pay next to nothing
DEMOCRATS want free schools to be well spent on
REPUBLICANS want vouchers to be used at any school: Note the reasoning is that they are already sending to private schools, so they can use the vouchers for cash back for themselves. whereas Democrats cant afford private schools anyways.
DEMOCRATS : hate wars, like peace, REPUBLICANS want to bomb other nations, so their DEFENSE INDUSTRY friends get a whole lot of $$$ contracts, Democrats want peace and Diplomacy!
DEMOCRATS believe in the theory, the more you make the more you pay in taxes, REPUBLICANS want to make it simplified by charging everyone low taxes, problem with that is, Democrats save a few dollars, but republicans save Billions, in other words, the REPUBs have found a way to hijack the system. They will call it fair and equitable, yep fair to their billionaire friends who make huge donations....
OBAMACARE is the best thing since sliced bread, heres why:
1. you pay nothing if you make less than 23,000$
2. 80% of all contributions must be paid for MEDICAL BILLS prior it was 50%
3. Everyone Must be Insured or pay penalty, Great Idea, heres why: When I was in school, other working adults paying taxes paid for me and my school, now that they are older, I should contribute to the Insurance pool so that its a payback. Goes like this
A 40 year old pays for an under 18 yr old in school
so why cant that 18 year old, who then turns 21 years old pay into the Health care system for the now 43 yr old. so it goes, on and on... FAIR!
RAD stores are smaller, are usually in beat up areas, off the beaten path, CVS has 24 hour pharmacies, larger, cleaner stores in better areas. RAD is like a 3rd tier competitor, its like GM vs Subaru or better yet, Mercedes vs Nissan, just no real chance at ever competing with CVS. . Stock price problem for RAD is earnings, they just dont make enough free cash flow to have large amounts of earnings to boost stock price. They will probably have to spend more and more just to become a 2nd tier competitor, that will keep earnings down for a while, and I see the stock going nowhere for a while, maybe sideways or down. RAD reminds me of the battle of other 2nd and 3rd tier players, they will etiher get bought out or slowly disappear and get swallowed up by larger players, RAD is not worth the risk at the moment. I will not buy RAD stock, Cramer likes it and he is going to change his mind, CVS is the big winner in Pharmacy/retail stocks, Walgreen 2nd tier, RAD 3rd tier, almost no chance to get ahead of CVS.
maybe in Colorado it is not feasible, but in TEXAS, $50 is in some areas and in others $58, also if you hedge, you may get higher prices, for example if oil is trading at 60.70 and you want to deliver in 6 months, you look at the fwd futures, which are slightly higher at 61.90, you sell now for 61.90 and start drilling so you can deliver for 61.90 and can be profitable at 50-58$. A couple of things that make oil drilling costs less expensive in times of falling oil: Lower Costs and Technology. As the price of oil falls, so do costs, companies cut CAPEX, cut pay at times, suppliers sell rigs and or lease equipment for less when demand is down, then others create better technology for better yield and so on and so on until it gets cheaper to drill the wells, with either lower costs and or both lower costs and better yield.
I bought today in the 15 .90 area, cant understand why they keep knocking this baby down, I sell my trading shares for .50 cents more, missed today but if over 16.44 tomorrow, I will unload my trading portion, buying 20% long term, 80% trading shares. 7 successful trades = near 0 buy in costs around the $16-16.50 region.
Since I am a long term holder of NE stock, I really wouldn't mind it going lower as I do plan on buying more. This companys debt vs other drillers is A grade, They are quite consistent in making $$$ and best of all, the divvy is so sweet at these prices. Actually hoping for a quick drop so I can gobble up more shares. Waiting with a little CHALK to deploy in NE, EVEP, and few other players.
This stock is a secret for those who appreciate Value, not like AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, which in my opinion are given valuations that let them buy so many companies inbetween, and or projects, and one day it will end badly for one of them for sure.
oil and gas stocks are up as I had earlier posted, the markets were expecting OPEC comment, and stocks in the Energy/OIl/Gas were due a leg up, hope you enjoyed some good advice and bought prior. I bought last few days and loaded up yesterday to sell today (1/2 or 60%) and rest slowly over at higher prices.
The sell off prior to OPEC meeting (we will probably hear more the same) OPEC will state they will continue producing, non stop. Actually this will be ok, as stocks will then have already expected the news and move on.
If by chance there is a cut (which I highly doubt) then it will be what I refer to as a reversal of fortunes, stocks may temporarily shoot up (short covering). Also I think CHK is getting hammered hard, might be interesting to get in on that again. I like WLL a lot. My faves are NE in drillers and EVEP in the MLP space.