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shivering_gums 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 2, 2015 10:48 AM Member since: Mar 28, 2012
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  • shivering_gums shivering_gums Aug 2, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Bottom line is
    AMZN makes less margins
    LNKD in has Over 5x margins
    So on a revenue basis , using ur numbers
    AMZN 90 Bln revenue with 280 Bln market cap
    LNKD in 3 Bln revenue on 26 Bln market cap

    Margins = 60% for LNKD in
    AMZN = 13%

    If fairly allotted LNKD in should be trading at 13x sales revenues
    Or 39 billion or about $300 / share

    Hence Suntrust analyst had his projections correct at 275/share

  • shivering_gums shivering_gums Aug 1, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    AMZN has been on a 20 year bubble..,still going higher, how do
    U explain that? Also I am referring to 3 stocks in particular , AMZN, LNKD,
    And TSLA, these 3 have bounced very hard off of pullbacks.

  • I have not been able to master valuating some of the companies as LNKD, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX valuations seem high, extremely high for AMZN,TSLA and LNKD but all four have one thing in common: Once the stock drops real hard, 7% or more, within a week they do get a bounce of 5% on any given day. I hate to buy stocks that I think are overvalued: However, I just bought LNKD shares to trade, sometime next week if were up 5-6 points over what I paid, I will be gone! However, I do believe we will get that jump on one day next week. Dont know what it is about LNKD in but it sure bounces back up quick.. Before I used to buy value stocks like Energies/Reits/Divvy Plays, now, I only like the high flier techs, like GOOG, FB, and Financials, BAC, C, and a bunch of Regional Banks: NYCB, HBAN, etc.
    There is something very special about AMZN, LNKD & TSLA, they just dont go down much and if they do, that is your opp, you have to buy when you see large RED on these three, they are so quick to bounce back, looks like the same funds keep buying these 3 in particular..GL2All

  • shivering_gums by shivering_gums Jul 30, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    Don't just read the headlines, read between the lines...was actually surprised to hear about several positive points.
    1. Buying bonds (debt at 35% reduction) shows u company spending cash to make more, also shows company has liquidity to do this, therefore no bk, no imminent problems, this is a long term play...
    2. 71 million cash flow positive
    3. 1.8 billion dollar hedge gain in 2015
    4. Divvy still good for august and September , divvy being cut for October,nov,dec 2015., will evaluate on quarterly basis
    5. Using private 3rd party to buy back bonds, nobody will know its Line buying, hence if bonds go up, stock stabilizes and goes higher. If for some reason bonds seem heavily discounted, will use 3rd party again, and buy back debt cheaper than par.

    All these actions actually work to enhance shareholder value, I bought in pre market as I find that headline chasers were panic selling!


  • Reply to

    Ellis is a cancer.

    by mc6767 Jul 30, 2015 6:51 AM
    shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 30, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    Not true...
    1. Bought back 599 million in bonds (735million par value)
    2. Gave ample time for investors to decide sticking with Line
    Did not cut divvy till after sept payment, unlike SDRL, who cut a week b4 divvy was due!
    3. Obviously we are in challenging times, buying back
    Bonds at discount at this stage= company has long term
    Plans, therefore no imminent bk, or going under,
    4. Have a 1.8 billion dollar gain through hedging so far in 2015
    5. Cutting divvy to buy back bonds at discounts as done in this Q=
    Debt reduction derivative, as they buy back debt at reduced prices...

    My call is that I see this stock stabilizing and going higher, if your truly a long term
    Investor, this should come not only as relief but a positive surprise...


  • Going Higher!
    Thank you Management!

  • shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 25, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Buying out nflx
    Amzn will get 100 million nflx consumers of which
    35 million are already Amzn customers, those additional
    65 men clients can buy Amzn products or join prime.
    Once you join prime for about $100/ year, Amzn
    Has proven 1200$/prime customer per year and growing
    Sales, thus they can get all their money back in couple of years
    For buying nflx, and keep charging non prime members 10 or 12$
    Month for streaming movies, keep in mind Amzn has a great
    Deal of movie content free for prime members, hence some
    Prime members are not nflx customers, this could be a colossal
    Win for Amzn and set it as a blue chipper stock rather than
    A momo stock,

  • Just curious, would many of you NFLX shareholders sell for $130/ share or about 57 Billion valuation?Considering Amazon stock went up so much lately, it would be a great currency for AMZN!. Jeff Bezos knows how to "work" wall street.

  • I think the euphoria over tech stocks, ie, GOOG and AMZN with near $70 jumps in one day is setting Technology stocks for an epic Sell off soon, maybe not GOOG or AMZN but rest of sector will take a hit.
    I think what we need is just that, ie, a Catalyst, Rotation of sectors, Financials will be getting most of the hedge fund $$$ , instead of technology, some funds may sell the tech stocks to bring in Cash and plow back in to energy, thats when we get the lift and a bottom may have been set.
    1. Financials, WFC, BAC, C, JPM
    2. Growth stocks, FB, AMZN , GOOG are getting
    the $$$ right now.
    we need the rotation to come to us in the energy complex.
    1. We need either interst rate increase right away (some money will flow out of financials then, sell on the news)
    2. We need a tech stock big name like a FB to come in with a less than stellar income report (tech sell off will create opportunity for us in energy
    3. Higher oil prices (this one may take time)

  • shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 23, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    thanks to amzn, you are going to get a big bounce up tomorrow, worth atleast 2 points...

  • GPRO and all growth stocks are going to surge tomorrow! Also GOOG, but GPRO is best, it will at the very least prop up a couple of points with the rising tide..of tech stocks.

  • Reply to

    Is the bottom finally here?

    by rjmcbear Jul 23, 2015 3:34 PM
    shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 23, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    I would consider a bottom only if Stock is able to rally atleast 15% above its lowest price, so at 5.65 low, I would like to see LINE close at 6.50 on heavier than normal volume for me to believe in the bottoming process.
    If by chance divvy is only cut 1/2 rather than all, we should be there tomorrow!

  • shivering_gums by shivering_gums Jul 22, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    If we close above 3.36 on higher than average volume, then
    Yes we have bottomed out! Time to enter would be in AH today!
    In a big way!

  • shivering_gums by shivering_gums Jul 21, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Both Top line and Bottom Line will be beat, what is AAPL mgmt going to say about Watch, Car, TV, Streaming Video/Music will make a differnce if were going up after hours: I say Higher!

  • Here are some reasons to own BBEP
    1. If you believe OIL will be higher than $65 within a year or 15 months (I do)
    2. If you believe this stock/company can withstand the APRIL Bank Review (remember there is no OCtober review for BBEP) they already mentioned that in CC. I do belive they can manage
    3. If you believe that BBEP can deliver on three of these things listed below: I believe BBEP can not only survive but thrive.
    A. Discipline themselves in using partner funds instead of their own cash for next project
    B. Keep focusing on the Permian (this is what everyone in the industry talks about as the cheapest costs)
    C. Keep Partnership funds ready for next venture, do not use own cash, do not use own cash.
    D. Most important, be dsiciplined in taking offers to sell 2nd and 3rd tier assetts and or be prepared a little bit more in advanced. (I believe they can do this)

    Hence no BK and no worry, this price is F'n ridiculous! BUY BUY BUY!

  • Reply to

    Ok….this is ridiculous!

    by brickdog25 Jul 16, 2015 12:03 PM
    shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 16, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    The cost is around $48 for oil for WLL, they are not losing money, sure they may not be making money. With Hedging, fwd, they can typically get 4-5% more, so if they want to sell for Jan 2016 Delivery, they can get 53.50/Bl
    Once Oil is solidly past $60, WLL will be a money machine..

  • private, could be around $14 or 15 share!
    This is what I heard.

  • shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 14, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    While I agree with your thesis, there is a little flaw, I don't think OIl is going back to 100$, maybe 85$, I see OIL at 50-64 $ for the next few months, maybe six months, then a slow climb towards $70. I am talking about WTI pricing. It is possible that Europe will be humming in 6-7 months, Asia (mostly china and India) growing, and AFRICA and LATIN AMERICA growing big with the Middle East. There is a lot of demand for Oil in South East Asia, China,India,etc. After China,India, you've got Indonesia,Pakistan,Malaysia,Vietnam,Phillipines all growing oil/gas needs, In India for example, there are over 1.3 bln ppl but in the US, there are only 380 mln ppl yet in the US there are 5X more Cars on the road. 20 years ago that statistic was 9 to 1, India is currently growing at a Faster clip than China, 6.5% vs 6 % for China. In the next 10 years, Indias population is going to grow by 20-23%, where is the OIL for them??? Chinese growth in next 10 years is estimate at 15%-20%, what about the US??? The growth rate here is expected to grow at 13.5% where are you going to find that much more OIL n GAS??
    My point about short term rates is that it favors less debted drillers, ie, NE, long term, yes SDRL is best. I like NE for the moment with SDRL as my long shot play.

  • Reply to

    Three bucks

    by bridgejumper08 Jul 13, 2015 11:56 AM
    shivering_gums shivering_gums Jul 13, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Dividend will not be cut for a while! As stated by CFO in Florida presentation, "...we are an MLP we pay dividends" was the response when asked if divvy will be cut!

  • Line Energy is well positioned for this down turn till early 2016, typically energy stocks and prices go up then.
    I like the situation here, this is a Very good Deal if your a net buyer and hold a long position. Time to add!
    Looks like it is forming a bottom. Gl 2 All!