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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

short_is_good_baboly 187 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 51 minutes ago Member since: Aug 31, 2002
  • No matter who will be selected for next president, the companies that don't pay tax but they take advantage of American tax payers and patients will be in trouble. Well, HZNP has raised prices for non-essential and generic drugs to a point that no one can stand it and it is done thru a slick sales force that picture heaven for poor patents.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    BRAVO MF

    by short_is_good_baboly Jan 26, 2016 8:27 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 26, 2016 9:32 PM Flag

    Halve the income, it is fake. Q4 will be the start of new negative trend for HZNP.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 26, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    That is a million dollar words. However, HZNP will be in trouble with any candidate, dem or rep.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 25, 2016 8:01 PM Flag

    One year ago, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch drew a parallel between the subprime mortgage crash and the disorderly fall in the price of oil.

    The analysts are little late since I am saying this from 2 years ago.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 25, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    So, it was obvious that this morning rise was a trap and this is heading to place it suppose to be.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 24, 2016 11:44 PM Flag

    They are targeted by candidates, medias and PBMs. I do not think they will have an easy time in 2016.

  • Reply to

    Microsoft, Google, Pfizer

    by samiam3939 Jan 24, 2016 10:41 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 24, 2016 11:33 PM Flag

    Sami, get some brains. Harvoni and Sovaldi are new and very important Hep-C drugs from GILD but congress pointed figure at them and ask GILD for explanation for their high prices. The main reason GILD trades at current low PEt. You see, GILD put billions in developments and those drugs started with $12B price tag at late stage. Basically, it was do or die for GILD. However, HZNP does not take any high risk but it is acting like one with 1500% price increase. Now let Tim to say that the company gives away some free samples and count them as credit. Well if an item costs $15 but you raise the price to $1500 without taking any risk t and then discounts the price to $1000 or even $500 that is gouging. Fair value should be $20 or at max double or $30 but not $1500 or even $500. After all, HZNP is not GILD but a roll-up, a small and bad copy of VRX.
    Sooner or later, ZNP will be on news again for price gouging even though it tries to hide behind orphan drugs.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 24, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    ***Iran has been producing 3.3 million barrels per day and will bump it to 4.3 BPD in the next 3 months***
    That is the most ignorant statement anyone can make. Do you know why Iran is increasing its production in first place? Have you been reading anything about sanction and nuclear deal?

    "Iran ordered an increase in crude output of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, to take advantage of the lifting of international sanctions imposed to halt Iran's nuclear research. The sanctions had cut its oil exports by about 2 million bpd."

    Get it, 2 mbdp was cut because of sanction. This 2 mbdp mostly was exported.

    "Iran’s current oil production is estimated to be around 2.8 million barrels per day (mbpd), of which about one million barrels are exported."

    Get it again, only 1 mbdp was exported and the rest was for internal use.

    “Iran has a considerable amount of oil stored offshore in tankers [between 30 million and 50 million barrels],” the agency notes. So any “meaningful production increases will occur [only] after some of the storage is cleared”.

    Get it again, no one was buying Iran oil because of sanction.

    "The highest level of production will be reached in the fourth quarter of 2017, averaging 3.6 million barrels per day."

    Look how wrong you are. The bottom line is that Iran tries to export 2 mbdp more that it lost to sanction eventually. That is a lot of oil to export but a lot of stored oil has to sold first. That means oil price will go much lower in coming days and weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • VRX used to trade around $260s and now $80s. HZNP which copied VRX is not in a better shape.
    Lawmakers and candidates will target roll-ups again and again. There will be some regulations to force these companies to moderate their prices. In this unknown situation, HZNP second big mistake after DEPO scenario become critical and that is acquisition of Crystexxa at high price and depleting its cash position without knowing the troubling future that is waiting for it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Buy one tanker of oil and get the second one free. Iran to triple its oil production to compete against other oil producers. It already has millions of barrels of oil in storage without increasing production. A lot of supplies and constant demand will push oil prices to $15. Drillers to go BK first since they can afford to drill and they cannot pay to their banks. Banks have started to see the pain and Bofa already reported millions of losses in this regard. Some small banks will see a serious pain. A small bank like KEY was trading in $15s and now is $11. BAC from $18 to $13. Seems 2008 again and smart money to exit or exited first. Don't get fool with current relief rally since this the nature of the market. The market is throwing some bones at retail investors to trap them.
    Oil is not the only issue. Strong dollar also is hurting big companies. Look at IBM and other international companies that are hurting because of strong dollar.
    How about China, the second largest economy in the world. There is a bubble to burst soon. China market was halted 2 times in past 2 weeks. It is not the end of it and this scenario will be repeated at any day again since fundamentals have been very weak.
    Is anyone safe. No, it is not. GILD is a good example. Over $20B of cash, generating over $5B of cash per quarter and buying back shares at PE of 7 but the price is going down. The point is for people who brags about HZNP PE and other metrics and they forget that HZNP loaded with debt, no cash and plenty of problems with its high priced and non-critical drugs that can be replaced easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Senen: you may want to consult with Shirazi:

    by corvettecars_0 Jan 24, 2016 12:07 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 24, 2016 1:39 PM Flag

    Shirazi is a long but his info benefits both long and short investors.
    It is unfortunate that this crossing is happening at this time. Looking at DEPO chart, the same crossing happened to it right around Xmas time and we saw that DEPO recorded a new 52 weeks around $13 a few days ago. This is the same DEPO that didn't go below $15 in October of last year when HZNP went below $13. So, good luck. Last Friday with strong market, HZNP volume was miserable or investors hesitate to participate. These are smart money who know HZNP is dead money for next few weeks and waiting for better opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    HZNP will be Wall Street darling. Good luck

    by kohinoorgem Jan 23, 2016 6:29 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 23, 2016 11:26 PM Flag

    Well, so far, HZNP is the most hated stock after VRX. How can it become a darling overnight. A company that was saying it didn't increase prices in 2 years but on January increased its price by 10% on top of previous inflated prices that made most people angry.
    At least VRX didn't raised its prices recently but HZNP did it shamelessly. Yes, the company is addicted to its behavior of higher and unsustainable prices.
    That is the reason for DEPO CEO to say to HZNP, don't get close to us since you smell trouble and your business model will not last. All the sudden, HZNP woke up from its dream and put a CC to say the company will switch to orphan drugs. Yeh right, After ES and CVS kicked you out and and closed their doors on you and now you are looking for a window to get in. Sorry HZNP, you are a roll-up, an addicted roll-up and you cannot change your behavior.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Iran plans to increase its production from 1 barral a day to 5.7 barrel a day.
    Already, many oil companies went BK with hefty debt that will put huge pressure on banks. it does not matter big or small banks since most have exposure.
    It was real state that killed the banks in 2008 and now oil companies are doing the same.
    Well, there are other factors that makes 2016 much worse than 2008. Yes, China slowdown, high dollar value, election and finally Federal Reserve with no option to lower interest rate.
    Even the most stable companies will be in pain. Shaky and questionable companies like VRX and HZNP will get the most damages. We have seen the preview of this scenario in past few months. Both VRX and HZNP, the king and queen of roll-ups have lost 2/3 of their values before but that is not enough unless they 3/4 or even 4/5 of their values. Pharma sector to follow oil sector to kill the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 11:45 PM Flag

    Iran-oil-mart is giving free oil like HZNP that giving free Duexis. Both cannot sell so they give it free. Oil does not have expiration date but drug do have expiration date. HZNP failed business tries to hide behind orphan drugs. It is hard to roll-up so business should roll-down.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 10:30 PM Flag

    It is obvious. DEPO are not going to give away its drugs free like HZNP. HZNP has been kicked out from everywhere.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 10:28 PM Flag

    12 down and counting. I am not worry about it since it is one guy with 12 ID.

  • short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    Look at Bofa. Do you know why BAC is down to this point. Banks have stared to put aside billions for losses from oil companies. A lot of small and mid cap oil companies are going BK and they cannot pay their borrowed money. Banks like BAC have started to get pain and they reported a lot of losses. 2008 is repeating and fed cannot help this time. Bring it on. Those who exit early, they will be safe.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • These are good days of HZNP and ugly days yet to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • short_is_good_baboly by short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 9:05 PM Flag

    History will be repeated for HZNP and when Tim makes more mistakes, mistakes like DEPO scenario.

  • Reply to

    10 Months (or less) to Actimmune FA Data

    by geringerart Jan 22, 2016 5:48 PM
    short_is_good_baboly short_is_good_baboly Jan 22, 2016 9:00 PM Flag

    HZNP has zero experience in R&D and most companies like HZNP fail a few times to learn some tricks.
    HZNP chance to fail is 99% and the stock will see $10 and teach the management that R&D is different from buying a company, raise the prices and issue shares to show some income.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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